Leooooooow Spillover Estimator
Estimate cross-channel spillover without pretending to prove perfect attribution.
Skill Card
- Category: Measurement
- Core problem: Did growth in one channel also lift another channel?
- Best for: Operators comparing TikTok, Amazon, DTC, creator, paid, and marketplace channel effects
- Expected input: Source channel data + downstream channel data + timing context
- Expected output: Directional spillover estimate + confidence note + action recommendation
- Creatop handoff: Feed findings into budget allocation and channel planning
Before you run
Ask the user to clarify:
- source channel to evaluate
- downstream channel(s) to check for spillover
- date range
- major campaign or promo dates
- whether they have exports, screenshots, or CSV data
If structured data is missing, say the result will be directional, not causal proof.
Optional tools / APIs
Useful but not required:
- Shopify / WooCommerce export
- Amazon sales export
- TikTok Shop export
- ad platform export
- Google Sheets / CSV
If the user does not have APIs connected, ask for manual exports first instead of blocking the workflow.
Workflow
- Confirm channel scope and time window.
- Collect source-channel change signals.
- Collect downstream-channel change signals.
- Align timing around campaigns, creator drops, content bursts, or promo windows.
- Judge whether the downstream lift looks:
- likely related
- weak / mixed
- insufficient evidence
- Explain the estimate with honest caveats.
Output format
Return in this order:
- Executive summary
- Spillover estimate
- Evidence blocks
- Confidence and caveats
- Recommended next step
Fallback mode
If the user only has weekly snapshots, rough screenshots, or partial exports:
- use simple directional comparison
- do not claim causal attribution
- clearly label missing data and confidence limits
Quality rules
- Never overclaim causality from timing alone.
- Prefer directional clarity over fake precision.
- Separate channel correlation from verified lift.
- Make the user’s next measurement step obvious.
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Razestar.
This skill is provided under CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 for non-commercial use. You may reuse and adapt it with attribution to Razestar, and share derivatives under the same license.
Commercial use requires a separate paid commercial license from Razestar. No trademark rights are granted.