Modeling Bond Valuations

Modeling Bond Valuations

When To Use

• Pricing a bond (fixed-rate, floating-rate, zero-coupon, callable, putable, or amortizing) from first principles or relative to benchmarks
• Calculating duration (Macaulay, modified, effective) and convexity for portfolio risk management
• Computing OAS or Z-spread to evaluate credit-adjusted relative value versus comparable issues
• Running scenario/shock analysis on rate moves, curve shifts, or credit migration
• Comparing bonds across sectors or maturities on a spread basis for trade idea generation

Inputs To Gather

• Bond terms: CUSIP/ISIN, coupon rate, coupon frequency, maturity date, day-count convention (30/360, ACT/ACT, ACT/360), par value, settlement date
• Embedded options: Call/put schedule with dates and strike prices; make-whole spread if applicable
• Benchmark curve: Treasury par/spot/forward curve or swap curve (source and as-of date)
• Credit inputs: Credit rating, sector, issuer spread history, comparable issue spreads
• Market data: Current market price or yield, accrued interest, repo rate (for carry analysis)
• Volatility assumption: Interest rate vol model or surface if pricing options (e.g., lognormal OAS model vol in bps)

Workflow

1. Build the cash flow schedule

   • Map coupon dates using the stated frequency and day-count convention
   • For amortizing bonds, construct the principal repayment schedule
   • For floaters, project coupon resets from the forward curve plus quoted spread

2. Bootstrap or source the discount curve

   • Use Treasury spot rates (strip curve) or swap zero rates as the risk-free benchmark
   • Interpolate intermediate maturities via cubic spline or piecewise linear methods
   • Document curve source, snapshot date/time, and interpolation method

3. Compute base valuation

   • Price from yield: Discount each cash flow at the bond's YTM; sum present values; add accrued interest for dirty price
   • Z-spread: Solve iteratively for the constant spread over the spot curve that equates discounted cash flows to the observed market price
   • OAS (for bonds with optionality): Use a binomial or Monte Carlo interest rate model; calibrate the tree/sim to the benchmark curve and vol surface; solve for the spread that prices the bond to market after accounting for embedded option exercise [VERIFY: confirm vol model and calibration parameters match firm convention]

4. Calculate risk metrics

   • Modified duration: −(1/P) × dP/dy, computed analytically or via a ±1 bp parallel shift
   • Effective duration (for callable/putable): Use the OAS model to reprice under ±25–50 bp parallel curve shifts; ED = (P₋ − P₊) / (2 × P₀ × Δy)
   • Convexity: (P₋ + P₊ − 2P₀) / (P₀ × Δy²), using the same shift size
   • Key-rate durations: Shift individual tenor points (2y, 5y, 10y, 30y) by ±25 bp, holding others constant; report sensitivity at each node
   • DV01 / BPV: Dollar change per $1 million face for a 1 bp yield change

5. Run relative value and scenario analysis

   • Compare OAS or Z-spread to sector medians, rating-tier comps, and issuer's own curve
   • Stress-test with parallel shifts (±50, ±100, ±200 bp), curve steepening/flattening (2s10s ±50 bp), and credit spread widening (+50, +100 bp)
   • Compute carry and roll-down over 1m/3m/6m horizons using forward rates
   • Flag rich/cheap signals: current spread vs. 6-month and 12-month historical range

6. Validate outputs

   • Cross-check computed price against Bloomberg/vendor price (tolerance ≤ 1/32 for Treasuries, ≤ ¼ point for corporates)
   • Verify duration and convexity fall within expected ranges for the bond's tenor and coupon
   • Confirm OAS is positive for investment-grade issues and directionally consistent with credit tier
   • Sense-check carry/roll-down against the shape of the forward curve

Output

Deliver a structured valuation summary containing:

• Bond identification: Issuer, CUSIP/ISIN, coupon, maturity, call features
• Pricing table: Clean price, dirty price, accrued interest, YTM, YTW (yield-to-worst for callables)
• Spread metrics: Z-spread, OAS, G-spread, I-spread (where applicable)
• Risk metrics: Modified/effective duration, convexity, DV01, key-rate duration profile
• Relative value: Spread vs. comps table, historical spread percentile, rich/cheap assessment
• Scenario matrix: Price and spread impact under each stress scenario
• Carry/roll-down: Projected total return components over stated horizons
• Assumptions log: Curve source, vol model, day-count, settlement, interpolation method

Quality Checks

• Confirm day-count convention matches the bond's market standard (e.g., 30/360 for US corporates, ACT/ACT for Treasuries) [VERIFY]
• Ensure settlement date reflects T+1 or T+2 convention per market [VERIFY]
• Validate that the yield-to-worst is computed across all call dates, not just the first
• Check that OAS model calibration reprices on-the-run benchmarks to within 0.5 bp
• Verify accrued interest calculation matches the ex-dividend convention for the market
• Confirm that key-rate duration contributions sum approximately to effective duration
• Flag any negative OAS on investment-grade bonds as a potential data or model error
• Mark all externally sourced vol assumptions and spread comps with retrieval dates