Liberfi Predict

LiberFi Prediction Market

Browse prediction market events, manage positions, and place orders on Kalshi and Polymarket using the LiberFi CLI.

Pre-flight Checks

See bootstrap.md for CLI installation and connectivity verification.

This skill's auth requirements:

Recommended flow (TEE auto): polymarket-setup → polymarket-place / kalshi-place / cancel. The server holds the user's TEE wallet via Privy and signs every transaction internally — no POLY_* HMAC, no Solana signing, no EIP-712 work for the caller.

Legacy flow: Polymarket order operations via polymarket-order require CLOB HMAC authentication via five --poly-* flags. These are NOT LiberFi JWT credentials — they are the user's own Polymarket CLOB API credentials.

TEE Auto Order Flow (CRITICAL)

For the canonical end-to-end order placement flow — including pre-flight status checks, deposit handling, market vs limit order branching, and post- order verification — see reference/order-flow.md.

The CLI/skill expects this exact ordering for Polymarket:

1. lfi status — confirm authenticated; if not, run lfi login key
2. lfi predict polymarket-setup-status --json — check Safe deployment + token approvals
3. If safe_deployed=false or any approval missing: lfi predict polymarket-setup --json (one-shot; gasless via Builder Relayer)
4. Check Safe USDC balance — pass the TEE EOA, NOT the Safe: lfi predict balance --source polymarket --user <tee-eoa> --json (server derives Safe from EOA internally). If balance < 2, fetch BRIDGE deposit addresses using the Safe address from step 2/3: lfi predict polymarket-deposit-addresses --safe-address <safe> --json → returns { evm, svm, btc, tron }. Pick the field matching the user's chain (default evm for ETH/Polygon/Base/Arb/Op/BNB). Tell user to send ≥ $2 USDC to that bridge address (NEVER to the Safe address — the Safe is Polymarket's internal custody contract, not a user-facing deposit target). The Polymarket Bridge service auto-credits the Safe.
5. Ask the user: market or limit? For limit, also ask price + size + GTC vs GTD (with expiration if GTD). For market, ask USDC spend (BUY) or share count (SELL)
6. Show the final order summary, wait for explicit confirmation
7. lfi predict polymarket-place --token-id <id> --side <s> --order-type <t> [--price <p>] [--size <sz>] [--expiration <epoch>] --json
8. lfi predict orders --source polymarket --json — verify open orders
9. lfi predict cancel <id> --source polymarket --json — cancel if user asks

For Kalshi the flow is shorter: lfi predict kalshi-place --input-mint <inMint> --output-mint <outMint> --amount <amt> --json — quote, sign (SignSOL), and submit are all done server-side.

Skill Routing

CLI Command Index

Query Commands (read-only)

TEE Auto Flow Commands (recommended)

Legacy / Deprecated Commands

Parameter Reference

Events list (lfi predict events):

• --limit <n> — Max results per page
• --cursor <cursor> — Pagination cursor
• --status <status> — Event status filter (e.g. active, resolved)
• --source <source> — Provider source: kalshi or polymarket
• --tag-slug <slug> — Filter by tag
• --search <query> — Free-text search
• --sort-by <field> — Sort field
• --sort-asc <bool> — Sort ascending: true or false
• --with-markets <bool> — Include embedded markets: true or false

Event detail (lfi predict event <slug>):

• <slug> — Required. Event slug identifier
• --source <source> — Required. Provider source: kalshi or polymarket

Balance (lfi predict balance):

• --source <source> — Required. Provider source: kalshi or polymarket
• --user <address> — Required. For polymarket: pass the user's TEE EOA (e.g. evmAddress from lfi whoami); the server auto-derives the Safe via CREATE2. NEVER pass a Safe address here. For kalshi: pass the Solana public key (solAddress).

Positions (lfi predict positions):

• --user <address> — Required. Same rule as balance: TEE EOA for polymarket (server derives Safe), Solana public key for kalshi.
• --source <source> — Optional provider source filter

Trades (lfi predict trades):

• --wallet <address> — Required. Same rule as balance: TEE EOA for polymarket (server derives Safe), Solana public key for kalshi.
• --source <source> — Optional provider source filter
• --limit <n> — Max results per page
• --cursor <cursor> — Pagination cursor
• --type <types> — Comma-separated trade types
• --side <side> — Trade side filter

Orders (lfi predict orders):

• --source <source> — Provider source
• --wallet-address <address> — Wallet address (required for kalshi)
• --market-id <id> — Market ID filter
• --asset-id <id> — Asset ID filter
• --next-cursor <cursor> — Pagination cursor
• --poly-api-key, --poly-address, --poly-signature, --poly-passphrase, --poly-timestamp — Polymarket CLOB auth (required when source is polymarket)

Order detail (lfi predict order <id>):

• <id> — Required. Order ID
• --source <source> — Required. Provider source
• Same --poly-* flags as orders list

Polymarket tick size (lfi predict polymarket-tick-size):

• --token-id <id> — Required. Polymarket CLOB token ID

Polymarket fee rate (lfi predict polymarket-fee-rate):

• --token-id <id> — Required. Polymarket CLOB token ID

Polymarket setup status (lfi predict polymarket-setup-status):

• --wallet-address <addr> — Optional EVM address. Defaults to caller's TEE wallet when authenticated.

Polymarket setup (run) (lfi predict polymarket-setup):

• No flags. Requires authentication. Idempotent — safe to call repeatedly.

Polymarket deposit addresses (lfi predict polymarket-deposit-addresses):

• --safe-address <addr> — Required. Safe wallet address (from polymarket-setup-status)

Polymarket place (TEE auto) (lfi predict polymarket-place):

• --token-id <id> — Required. Polymarket CLOB token ID
• --side BUY|SELL — Required.
• --order-type GTC|GTD|FOK|FAK|MARKET — Required.
• --price <p> — Limit price (limit orders only, e.g. 0.55). Required for GTC/GTD/FOK/FAK.
• --size <sz> — Limit: shares; market BUY: USDC; market SELL: shares. Required for limit and market.
• --expiration <epochSec> — Required for GTD.
• --neg-risk true|false — Force NegRisk exchange. Auto-detected when omitted.
• --fee-rate-bps <n> — Override fee rate (PS auto-resolves when omitted).
• --tick-size <n> — Override tick size (PS auto-resolves when omitted).
• --taker-address <addr> — Restrict the taker (advanced).

Kalshi place (TEE auto) (lfi predict kalshi-place):

• --input-mint <addr> — Required. Input token mint
• --output-mint <addr> — Required. Output token mint
• --amount <amt> — Required. Amount in smallest unit
• --slippage-bps <bps> — Slippage tolerance in basis points

Cancel order (lfi predict cancel <id>):

• <id> — Required. Order ID
• --source polymarket|kalshi — Required. For polymarket the L2 HMAC headers are derived from the caller's TEE wallet automatically.

Kalshi quote (lfi predict kalshi-quote):

• --input-mint <address> — Required. Input token mint address
• --output-mint <address> — Required. Output token mint address
• --amount <amount> — Required. Swap amount
• --user-public-key <key> — Required. User's Solana public key
• --slippage-bps <bps> — Slippage tolerance in basis points

Kalshi submit (lfi predict kalshi-submit):

• --signed-transaction <tx> — Required. Signed transaction data
• --order-context <json> — Required. Order context as JSON string (contains user_public_key, market_slug, side, outcome, mints, amount, price, slippage_bps)

Polymarket order (lfi predict polymarket-order):

• --body <json> — Required. Raw order JSON string
• --poly-api-key <key> — Required. Polymarket API key
• --poly-address <address> — Required. Polymarket address
• --poly-signature <sig> — Required. Polymarket HMAC signature
• --poly-passphrase <pass> — Required. Polymarket passphrase
• --poly-timestamp <ts> — Required. Polymarket timestamp

Operation Flow

Browse Prediction Events

1. Fetch events: lfi predict events --with-markets true --limit 20 --json
2. Present results: Show event title, status, number of markets, volume
3. Suggest next step: "Want to see details for a specific event?" / "需要查看某个事件的详情？"

Browse Events by Source

1. Determine source: Ask user for kalshi or polymarket
2. Fetch: lfi predict events --source kalshi --with-markets true --limit 20 --json
3. Present: Events filtered by provider
4. Suggest next step: "Pick an event to view its markets and outcomes"

View Event Details

1. Determine slug: From user selection or input
2. Fetch event: lfi predict event <slug> --source <source> --json
3. Present: Event title, description, status, resolution sources, markets with outcomes and prices
4. Suggest next step: "Want to check your balance or place an order?"

Check USDC Balance

If the user says "我的余额", "my balance", "我在 Polymarket/Kalshi 有多少钱" or any first-person variant — DO NOT ask for a wallet address. Use the "My ..." auto-flow below.

Generic flow (when the user explicitly provides someone else's address):

1. Collect inputs: Source (kalshi/polymarket) and wallet address
2. Fetch: lfi predict balance --source <source> --user <address> --json
3. Present: Available USDC balance
4. Suggest next step: "Ready to place a prediction?" / "准备下注了吗？"

Kalshi Order Flow (Quote → Sign → Submit)

1. Browse events: lfi predict events --source kalshi --with-markets true --json
2. View event: lfi predict event <slug> --source kalshi --json — identify market, outcomes, and mints
3. Check balance: lfi predict balance --source kalshi --user <publicKey> --json
4. Get quote: lfi predict kalshi-quote --input-mint <inMint> --output-mint <outMint> --amount <amt> --user-public-key <key> --json
5. Present quote: Show expected output amount, price, slippage
6. (mandatory) Wait for explicit user confirmation
7. User signs the transaction (externally, e.g. via wallet)
8. Submit: lfi predict kalshi-submit --signed-transaction <signedTx> --order-context '<contextJson>' --json
9. Present result: Show signature, status

Polymarket Order Flow

1. Browse events: lfi predict events --source polymarket --with-markets true --json
2. View event: lfi predict event <slug> --source polymarket --json
3. Check balance: lfi predict balance --source polymarket --user <address> --json
4. Prepare order body: Construct the Polymarket order JSON
5. (mandatory) Show order summary and wait for explicit user confirmation
6. Create order: lfi predict polymarket-order --body '<orderJson>' --poly-api-key <key> --poly-address <addr> --poly-signature <sig> --poly-passphrase <pass> --poly-timestamp <ts> --json
7. Present result: Show order response

View Positions

If the user says "我的持仓", "我现在押了哪些", "my positions", "我赌了什么" or any first-person variant — DO NOT ask for a wallet address. Use the "My ..." auto-flow below.

Generic flow (when the user explicitly provides someone else's address):

1. Determine user: Get wallet address from user
2. Fetch: lfi predict positions --user <address> --json
3. Present: Show event/market, outcome, size, entry price, current value
4. Suggest next step: "Want to see your trade history?" / "需要查看交易历史？"

View Trade History

If the user says "我的交易", "我赚了多少", "我亏了多少", "my trades", "我的盈亏" or any first-person variant — DO NOT ask for a wallet address. Use the "My ..." auto-flow below.

Generic flow (when the user explicitly provides someone else's address):

1. Determine wallet: Get wallet address from user
2. Fetch: lfi predict trades --wallet <address> --limit 20 --json
3. Present: Show trade timestamp, event/market, side, price, size
4. Suggest next step: "Want to check your current positions?" / "需要查看当前持仓？"

"My ..." auto-flow (CRITICAL — covers "我的", "my", "我自己")

Whenever the user asks about THEIR OWN prediction-market data — positions, trades, balance, PnL, "我现在押了哪些", "我在预测市场赚了多少", "我在 Polymarket 上的钱", etc. — run this exact sequence. NEVER ask the user to type their wallet address.

1. Check session: lfi status --json
2. If not authenticated (or expired: true): lfi login key --role AGENT --name "OpenClawAgent" --json
3. Fetch TEE wallet addresses: lfi whoami --json → returns evmAddress (use for Polymarket) and solAddress (use for Kalshi).
4. Determine source(s):
   • If the user named "Polymarket" → use evmAddress only.
   • If the user named "Kalshi" → use solAddress only.
   • If neither was named (e.g. "我在预测市场赚了多少") → query BOTH and merge.
5. Run the matching query for each source — pass the TEE EOA / SOL pubkey from step 3 DIRECTLY. NEVER convert to a Safe address first; the server does that internally for Polymarket.
   • Positions: lfi predict positions --user <evmAddress|solAddress> [--source <s>] --json
   • Trades: lfi predict trades --wallet <evmAddress|solAddress> [--source <s>] --limit 50 --json
   • Balance: lfi predict balance --source <s> --user <evmAddress|solAddress> --json
6. Present a single consolidated answer that names the source(s) used and, for the "我赚了多少" / PnL question, sums realized + unrealized PnL across the returned trades/positions.

Why this is mandatory: prediction queries always require an address parameter in the CLI, but a normal user does NOT know their TEE wallet address — the LiberFi server holds it. The skill must resolve "我" → TEE wallet via whoami, transparently. The user should never have to type or even see the hex/Base58 address unless they ask.

EOA vs Safe — critical distinction for Polymarket: The address from whoami.evmAddress is the user's TEE EOA. For balance / positions / trades queries, ALWAYS pass the EOA — the prediction-server derives the Polymarket Safe via CREATE2 internally. The Safe address (returned by polymarket-setup-status) is ONLY for polymarket-deposit-addresses --safe-address (Polymarket Bridge requires the actual Safe as bridge key). Mixing these up → balance / positions / trades return EMPTY because the server tries to derive a Safe from an already-Safe address.

Check Order Status

1. List orders: lfi predict orders --source <source> --wallet-address <address> --json
2. Or get specific order: lfi predict order <id> --source <source> --json
3. Present: Show order status, side, price, filled amount

Cross-Skill Workflows

"Research an event and place a bet"

Full flow: predict → predict → predict → predict → predict

1. predict → lfi predict events --search "bitcoin" --with-markets true --json
2. predict → lfi predict event <slug> --source kalshi --json — view markets and outcomes
3. predict → lfi predict balance --source kalshi --user <publicKey> --json — check funds
4. predict → lfi predict kalshi-quote --input-mint <in> --output-mint <out> --amount <amt> --user-public-key <key> --json — get quote
5. Present quote, wait for confirmation, user signs transaction
6. predict → lfi predict kalshi-submit --signed-transaction <tx> --order-context '<ctx>' --json

"Check my prediction portfolio and trade history"

Full flow: predict → predict

1. predict → lfi predict positions --user <address> --json — current positions
2. predict → lfi predict trades --wallet <address> --limit 50 --json — trade history
3. Present consolidated portfolio view

"Browse events, then research the underlying token"

Full flow: predict → token → token

1. predict → lfi predict events --with-markets true --limit 10 --json
2. User selects an event related to a specific token
3. token → lfi token info sol <tokenAddress> --json — token details
4. token → lfi token security sol <tokenAddress> --json — security audit

Suggest Next Steps

Edge Cases

• Invalid source: If the API returns an error about source, list valid sources (kalshi, polymarket) and ask the user to choose
• No events found: Inform user: "No prediction events found matching your criteria. Try different filters or search terms."
• Empty positions: Inform user: "No open positions found for this wallet. You can browse events to find prediction opportunities."
• Insufficient balance: If balance is too low for a trade, inform the user and suggest depositing funds
• Invalid slug: If event not found, suggest searching events first via lfi predict events --search <keyword>
• Polymarket auth missing: If POLY_* flags are missing for Polymarket operations, list all required flags and ask the user to provide them
• Invalid JSON in --body or --order-context: If JSON parsing fails, show the parse error and ask the user to correct the JSON
• Quote expired: Kalshi quotes have limited validity; if too much time passes, get a new quote
• Network timeout: Retry once after 3 seconds; if still fails, suggest checking connectivity via lfi ping --json

Common Pitfalls

Security Notes

See security-policy.md for global security rules.

Skill-specific rules:

• Polymarket CLOB credentials are sensitive — never log, display, or store POLY_* values beyond the immediate command execution
• Kalshi transactions involve real funds — never fabricate or guess signed transaction data
• NEVER place orders without explicit user confirmation — always show the order summary first
• The --order-context and --body fields are opaque — pass them through as-is; do not interpret, modify, or display raw content beyond summarizing key fields (amount, side, market)
• After order submission, provide the result so the user can independently verify