Liberty91LTD Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) Index
SATs are formal methods that externalise analytical thinking, making it transparent, challengeable, and less susceptible to cognitive biases. Choose the right technique based on the analytical challenge.
When to Use SATs
- When the stakes are high (wrong answer = significant consequence)
- When multiple plausible explanations exist
- When cognitive biases are likely (confirmation, anchoring, availability)
- When you need to communicate your reasoning transparently
- When building on analysis from multiple analysts
Technique Categories
Diagnostic Techniques
Purpose: Evaluate existing analysis for quality and bias.
| Technique | When to Use | Skill |
|---|---|---|
| Key Assumptions Check | Before or after any major assessment — surface and challenge unstated assumptions | key-assumptions-check |
| Quality of Information Check | When evidence quality is uncertain — assess source reliability and information gaps | Use source-assessment skill |
| Indicators Validation | When monitoring a developing situation — define observable markers of change | Part of horizon-scanning |
Contrarian Techniques
Purpose: Challenge prevailing judgments and expose blind spots.
| Technique | When to Use | Skill |
|---|---|---|
| Analysis of Competing Hypotheses | Multiple plausible explanations — systematically evaluate each against evidence | ach |
| Devil's Advocate / Red Team | When consensus is strong — deliberately argue the opposing position | red-team-analysis |
| What-If Analysis | Explore low-probability but high-impact scenarios | Part of horizon-scanning |
| High-Impact / Low-Probability | Ensure unlikely but catastrophic scenarios are considered | Combine threat-assessment + horizon-scanning |
Imaginative Techniques
Purpose: Generate new ideas, hypotheses, and indicators.
| Technique | When to Use | Skill |
|---|---|---|
| Brainstorming | Generate hypotheses, IOC types to collect, detection approaches | No dedicated skill — apply freely |
| Scenario Development | Explore multiple futures for strategic planning | horizon-scanning |
| Indicators Generation | Define early warning indicators for a scenario | horizon-scanning |
Decision Guide: Which Technique?
Are you evaluating WHO did something?
→ ACH (ach skill)
Are you assessing a THREAT?
→ Threat Assessment (threat-assessment skill)
Are you challenging your OWN analysis?
→ Key Assumptions Check (key-assumptions-check skill)
Are you challenging SOMEONE ELSE's analysis?
→ Red Team / Devil's Advocate (red-team-analysis skill)
Are you looking FORWARD (emerging threats)?
→ Horizon Scanning (horizon-scanning skill)
Are you unsure if your evidence is RELIABLE?
→ Source Assessment (source-assessment skill)
Do you have MULTIPLE plausible explanations?
→ ACH (ach skill)
Combining Techniques
For complex assessments, combine techniques:
- Key Assumptions Check first (surface your assumptions)
- ACH for the core analysis (evaluate hypotheses)
- Red Team to challenge the result (stress-test conclusions)
- Horizon Scanning for forward-looking implications