llmquant Polymarket Watch
Runs before the market opens and sends one short list of prediction markets worth a look this morning. It answers:
- Which finance markets moved the most overnight?
- Which fresh markets picked up real volume?
- Where do the odds and the news disagree?
This skill is orchestration only. For probability-gap and settlement-criteria
method, install LLMQuant/skills.
Model baseline
Use DeepSeek as the default Hermes model for this scheduled job. DeepSeek V4 Flash is enough for routine scan-and-summarize runs. Use a stronger DeepSeek model only when the user asks for a deeper follow-up.
MCP tools used
| Tool | Purpose | Credit / call |
|---|---|---|
polymarket_event_browse |
Active finance events for tracked topics, filtered by volume and liquidity | 1 |
polymarket_event_search |
Optional natural-language discovery when a theme has no exact match | 2 |
polymarket_price_history |
Overnight odds moves for candidate markets | 0 |
polymarket_event_read |
Details and settlement criteria for flagged events | 0 |
polymarket_market_read |
Per-market odds and outcome detail | 0 |
news_browse |
News cross-check on flagged markets' tickers and topics | 2 |
Browse first; search only when a watchlist.prediction_market_topics theme
returns nothing exact. Price history and reads are free — spend those, not
extra browse calls.
Cron
hermes cron create "30 7 * * 1-5" "Run the polymarket-watch playbook: scan active finance prediction markets, flag the biggest overnight odds moves and odds-news divergences, keep it short and source-linked." \
--skill polymarket-watch \
--name "polymarket-watch" \
--deliver telegram
On some Hermes versions (as of v0.18.x), cron expressions run in host-local
time. Confirm the next-run time with hermes cron list after creating the
job. Scheduled a bit before morning-brief so the two land together.
Delivery
Telegram is the default delivery channel.
--deliver telegramsends to the Telegram home channel after/sethome.--deliver telegram:<chat_id>targets a specific chat.- For Slack, Discord, or other gateways, check the user's Hermes gateway syntax before scheduling.
Cost of watching
Keep runs lean: one browse per run covers most mornings, the follow-up reads
and price history are free, and one news_browse call cross-checks the
flagged markets. Skip the optional search call unless a tracked theme finds
nothing.
Output contract
Every delivered scan should include:
- as-of timestamp and local timezone;
- at most 3-5 markets, each with the odds move (from → to overnight), volume or liquidity context, and the news cross-check: backed by news, not backed, or no news found;
- settlement criteria or resolution date for anything flagged;
- tool names used for factual claims;
- "interesting" means worth a look, not a position: close with the no-advice
disclaimer from
templates/SOUL.md— discipline rule 3 applies to odds as much as to stocks.
Customize
watchlist.prediction_market_topics: edit in workspaceAGENTS.md; a few themes is enough, empty falls back to a broad finance browse sorted by volume.- Cadence: weekdays by default; markets trade through weekends, so add Saturday if the user tracks macro or politics-adjacent finance events.
- Depth: raise the market cap from 3-5 only if the user asks; a short list is the product.
- Delivery: change
--deliverto the channel the user checks first.