Adaptive Experimentation Strategy
Use this skill to decide whether and how to use adaptive testing strategies
instead of fixed-horizon A/B tests. It covers sequential testing, multi-armed
bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, exploration/exploitation, and
the data and engineering readiness required to operate them.
Source Traceability
Primary source: Next-Level A/B Testing by Leemay Nassery. Guidance is
transformed and paraphrased from Chapter 7 on adaptive testing, sequential
testing, multi-armed bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, and
engineering requirements.
Related skills:
experiment-type-selection for choosing simpler experiment types first.
ml-experiment-evaluation for model and ranking evaluation paths.
experiment-verification-monitoring for operational health and alerting.
Reference Routing
| Need |
Read |
| Adaptive testing concepts |
references/core/knowledge.md |
| Readiness and strategy rules |
references/core/rules.md |
| Scenario examples |
references/core/examples.md |
| Step-by-step adaptive readiness plan |
workflows/evaluate-adaptive-strategy.md |
Workflow
- State the decision and why fixed-horizon A/B testing may not be enough.
- Decide whether the need is early stopping, reward maximization, or
personalization.
- Check data freshness, reward definition, dashboards, on-call ownership, and
rollback controls.
- Choose sequential testing, bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, or
a simpler alternative.
- Document exploration/exploitation tradeoffs and user/business risk.
- Define rollout, monitoring, and adoption requirements.
Output Format
# Adaptive Experimentation Recommendation
## Use Case
[What decision or allocation problem motivates adaptive testing.]
## Recommended Strategy
[Do not use adaptive testing | Sequential | Bandit | Thompson sampling | Contextual bandit]
## Readiness
| Requirement | Status | Gap |
|-------------|--------|-----|
## Tradeoffs
- Reward:
- Exploration cost:
- Data freshness:
- Operational risk:
## Rollout Plan
1. [Step]
2. [Step]
3. [Step]
Quality Bar
- Do not recommend adaptive testing just because it is advanced.
- Do not use bandits when the real need is a clean causal estimate.
- Do not use contextual bandits without reliable context features and reward
measurement.
- Do not ignore production requirements: stale data, bad allocation, and alert
ownership can break adaptive systems.
1---2name: adaptive-experimentation-strategy3description: Plan adaptive experimentation strategies beyond fixed-horizon A/B tests. Use when evaluating sequential testing, early stopping, multi-armed bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, dynamic traffic allocation, exploration/exploitation tradeoffs, or readiness for adaptive testing infrastructure.4license: MIT5---67# Adaptive Experimentation Strategy89Use this skill to decide whether and how to use adaptive testing strategies10instead of fixed-horizon A/B tests. It covers sequential testing, multi-armed11bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, exploration/exploitation, and12the data and engineering readiness required to operate them.1314## Source Traceability1516Primary source: *Next-Level A/B Testing* by Leemay Nassery. Guidance is17transformed and paraphrased from Chapter 7 on adaptive testing, sequential18testing, multi-armed bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, and19engineering requirements.2021Related skills:2223- `experiment-type-selection` for choosing simpler experiment types first.24- `ml-experiment-evaluation` for model and ranking evaluation paths.25- `experiment-verification-monitoring` for operational health and alerting.2627## Reference Routing2829| Need | Read |30|------|------|31| Adaptive testing concepts | `references/core/knowledge.md` |32| Readiness and strategy rules | `references/core/rules.md` |33| Scenario examples | `references/core/examples.md` |34| Step-by-step adaptive readiness plan | `workflows/evaluate-adaptive-strategy.md` |3536## Workflow37381. State the decision and why fixed-horizon A/B testing may not be enough.392. Decide whether the need is early stopping, reward maximization, or40 personalization.413. Check data freshness, reward definition, dashboards, on-call ownership, and42 rollback controls.434. Choose sequential testing, bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, or44 a simpler alternative.455. Document exploration/exploitation tradeoffs and user/business risk.466. Define rollout, monitoring, and adoption requirements.4748## Output Format4950```markdown51# Adaptive Experimentation Recommendation5253## Use Case54[What decision or allocation problem motivates adaptive testing.]5556## Recommended Strategy57[Do not use adaptive testing | Sequential | Bandit | Thompson sampling | Contextual bandit]5859## Readiness60| Requirement | Status | Gap |61|-------------|--------|-----|6263## Tradeoffs64- Reward:65- Exploration cost:66- Data freshness:67- Operational risk:6869## Rollout Plan701. [Step]712. [Step]723. [Step]73```7475## Quality Bar7677- Do not recommend adaptive testing just because it is advanced.78- Do not use bandits when the real need is a clean causal estimate.79- Do not use contextual bandits without reliable context features and reward80 measurement.81- Do not ignore production requirements: stale data, bad allocation, and alert82 ownership can break adaptive systems.