Adaptive Experimentation Strategy
Use this skill to decide whether and how to use adaptive testing strategies instead of fixed-horizon A/B tests. It covers sequential testing, multi-armed bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, exploration/exploitation, and the data and engineering readiness required to operate them.
Source Traceability
Primary source: Next-Level A/B Testing by Leemay Nassery. Guidance is transformed and paraphrased from Chapter 7 on adaptive testing, sequential testing, multi-armed bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, and engineering requirements.
Related skills:
experiment-type-selectionfor choosing simpler experiment types first.ml-experiment-evaluationfor model and ranking evaluation paths.experiment-verification-monitoringfor operational health and alerting.
Reference Routing
| Need | Read |
|---|---|
| Adaptive testing concepts | references/core/knowledge.md |
| Readiness and strategy rules | references/core/rules.md |
| Scenario examples | references/core/examples.md |
| Step-by-step adaptive readiness plan | workflows/evaluate-adaptive-strategy.md |
Workflow
- State the decision and why fixed-horizon A/B testing may not be enough.
- Decide whether the need is early stopping, reward maximization, or personalization.
- Check data freshness, reward definition, dashboards, on-call ownership, and rollback controls.
- Choose sequential testing, bandits, Thompson sampling, contextual bandits, or a simpler alternative.
- Document exploration/exploitation tradeoffs and user/business risk.
- Define rollout, monitoring, and adoption requirements.
Output Format
# Adaptive Experimentation Recommendation
## Use Case
[What decision or allocation problem motivates adaptive testing.]
## Recommended Strategy
[Do not use adaptive testing | Sequential | Bandit | Thompson sampling | Contextual bandit]
## Readiness
| Requirement | Status | Gap |
|-------------|--------|-----|
## Tradeoffs
- Reward:
- Exploration cost:
- Data freshness:
- Operational risk:
## Rollout Plan
1. [Step]
2. [Step]
3. [Step]
Quality Bar
- Do not recommend adaptive testing just because it is advanced.
- Do not use bandits when the real need is a clean causal estimate.
- Do not use contextual bandits without reliable context features and reward measurement.
- Do not ignore production requirements: stale data, bad allocation, and alert ownership can break adaptive systems.