m2ai-portfolio Pre-Turn Token Budget Guardian
Enforces a hard or soft token budget on the current session. Unlike boot-tax-monitor (measures startup overhead) and token-burn-auditor (finds waste after the fact), this skill prevents overspend by checking projected usage before each significant operation.
Trigger
Use when the user says "set a token budget", "budget guardian", "limit my spend", "cap this session", "don't let me burn more than X tokens", "token ceiling", "prevent runaway", or wants to enforce cost limits on a Claude Code session.
Phase 1: Set Budget Parameters
Ask for or accept defaults:
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|
budget_tokens |
500,000 | Max total tokens (input + output) for this session |
budget_usd |
$5.00 | Max estimated cost for this session |
warning_threshold |
80% | Alert when this % of budget is consumed |
enforcement |
soft | soft = warn and ask to continue; hard = halt immediately |
model |
auto-detect | Model in use (for pricing calculation) |
If the user gives a dollar amount, convert to tokens using current pricing:
| Model | Input $/1M | Output $/1M | Blended avg $/1M |
|---|---|---|---|
| Haiku 3.5 | $0.80 | $4.00 | ~$2.40 |
| Sonnet 4 | $3.00 | $15.00 | ~$9.00 |
| Opus 4 | $15.00 | $75.00 | ~$45.00 |
Formula: budget_tokens = (budget_usd / blended_per_token) * 1,000,000
Phase 2: Measure Current Usage
Check current session token consumption:
If the agent platform DB available (
store/the agent platform.db):SELECT SUM(context_tokens) as total_input, SUM(output_tokens) as total_output, SUM(cost_usd) as total_cost, COUNT(*) as turns FROM token_usage WHERE session_id = '<current_session>';If session JSONL available (
~/.claude/projects/*/sessions/): Parse the most recent session file for token usage entries.If neither available, estimate from conversation length:
- Count user messages and assistant responses
- Estimate ~1,000 tokens per user turn, ~2,000 per assistant turn
- This is a rough fallback -- note the estimate in output
Phase 3: Project Next Turn Cost
Before the user's next significant operation, estimate what it will cost:
- Simple question/answer: ~3,000-5,000 tokens
- Code generation: ~5,000-15,000 tokens
- Multi-file edit: ~15,000-30,000 tokens
- Agent task with tool use: ~20,000-50,000 tokens
- Sub-agent spawn: ~50,000-100,000 tokens
Calculate:
used_tokens = total_input + total_output
projected_after_next = used_tokens + estimated_next_turn
remaining = budget_tokens - used_tokens
Phase 4: Enforce
At warning threshold (default 80%):
Token Budget Warning
====================
Used: XXK / XXK tokens (XX%)
Est. cost: $X.XX / $X.XX
Remaining: ~XX turns at current rate
Continue? [y/n]
At budget limit:
Soft mode: Show warning, ask to continue or stop Hard mode: Output structured stop and refuse further operations:
Token Budget Exceeded
=====================
Budget: XXK tokens ($X.XX)
Used: XXK tokens ($X.XX)
Stop reason: BUDGET_EXCEEDED
Session halted. To continue, run /pre-turn-budget-guardian with a higher budget.
Phase 5: Ongoing Monitoring
After setting the budget, append a status line after each significant response:
[Budget: XXK/XXK tokens (XX%) | ~XX turns remaining]
If the user runs multiple operations, track cumulative usage and warn proactively when approaching the threshold.
Runaway Loop Detection
The specific failure mode this prevents: Claude Code's autoCompact or retry logic silently burning thousands of tokens in a loop. Detect this by:
- If 3+ consecutive turns have >10,000 output tokens each, flag as potential loop
- If token consumption rate doubles between consecutive turns, flag as acceleration
- If the same tool is called 5+ times in a row with similar inputs, flag as retry storm
On detection:
Runaway Loop Detected
=====================
Pattern: [retry storm / token acceleration / repeated tool calls]
Tokens burned in loop: ~XXK
Action: [HALTED (hard) / WARNING (soft)]
Integration Notes
- boot-tax-monitor: Measures what you pay at startup (static). Run first to know your baseline.
- token-burn-auditor: Finds waste patterns after the fact (diagnostic). Run periodically.
- pre-turn-budget-guardian: Prevents overspend in real-time (enforcement). Run during sessions.
Together these form the token management trilogy: measure, diagnose, enforce.
Source Attribution
Technique derived from Nate's Newsletter (2026-04-03): "Your Agent Is 80% Plumbing" -- pre-turn token budget checking as a core infrastructure primitive, inspired by Claude Code's internal budget guardian that checks projected usage before each API call and halts with structured stop reasons on budget exhaustion.