mahmoud20138 Skill: Futures Trading | Domain: trading | Category: asset-class | Level: intermediate Tags:
trading,asset-class,futures,contracts,rollover,contango
Futures Trading — Asset Class Reference
Contract Mechanics
- Expiry: Futures expire on a fixed date (quarterly for index/rates, monthly for commodities)
- Rollover: Roll to next contract before expiry (typically 5–10 days before)
- Basis: Difference between futures price and spot price
- Contango: Futures > Spot (normal for commodities with storage costs)
- Backwardation: Futures < Spot (supply squeeze signal for commodities)
Key Futures Instruments
| Contract | Exchange | Tick Size | Session (UTC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ES (S&P 500) | CME | $12.50 | 23:00–22:00 |
| NQ (Nasdaq) | CME | $5.00 | 23:00–22:00 |
| CL (Crude Oil) | NYMEX | $10.00 | 00:00–23:00 |
| GC (Gold) | COMEX | $10.00 | 23:00–22:00 |
| ZN (10Y Note) | CBOT | $15.625 | 00:00–22:00 |
Contango/Backwardation Signal
def term_structure_signal(spot: float, front_month: float, next_month: float) -> dict:
basis_1 = front_month - spot
basis_2 = next_month - front_month
structure = ("CONTANGO" if basis_1 > 0 and basis_2 > 0 else
"BACKWARDATION" if basis_1 < 0 and basis_2 < 0 else "MIXED")
return {
"structure": structure,
"basis_front": round(basis_1, 2),
"basis_next": round(basis_2, 2),
"signal": {
"CONTANGO": "Normal — no supply shock. Bearish medium-term for commodities.",
"BACKWARDATION": "Supply squeeze or high demand. Bullish near-term.",
"MIXED": "Transitioning — watch for structure shift.",
}.get(structure),
}
Oil & Gold (Your Instruments)
# Exness CFD equivalents of futures
OIL_CFD = "USOILm" # Tracks WTI crude front-month
GOLD_CFD = "XAUUSDm" # Tracks COMEX gold spot/front-month
# Key oil fundamentals
OIL_DRIVERS = ["EIA inventory (Wed 14:30 UTC)", "OPEC decisions",
"USD strength (inverse)", "geopolitical risk premium"]
GOLD_DRIVERS = ["Real yields (inverse)", "USD index (inverse)",
"Risk sentiment", "Central bank buying"]
Futures Rollover Impact
- Price gaps at rollover — check if your broker adjusts or creates gap
- Exness CFDs typically adjust continuously — no hard rollover gap
- Watch COT reports for large spec positioning at rollover dates