Strategy Selection

Skill: Strategy Selection | Domain: trading | Category: meta-intelligence | Level: intermediate Tags: trading, strategy, meta, regime, session

Strategy Selection Framework

Step 1: Identify Market Regime

TRENDING (Unbalanced):
  → Price making HH/HL (bull) or LH/LL (bear)
  → ADR > 80% of 20-day average
  → Clear displacement candles visible on 1H+
  → Volume profile: THIN shape (strong directional flow)
  → Best strategies: ICT MSS+FVG, Market Maker Models, Displacement Trap Entry

RANGING (Balanced):
  → Price oscillating between defined H/L
  → ADR < 60% of 20-day average
  → Volume profile: D-SHAPE (heavy middle, light edges)
  → Best strategies: Mean Reversion, S&D Zone Fades, Asian Range Fade

TRANSITIONING:
  → After extended trend, first signs of exhaustion
  → Volume profile: P-SHAPE (top-heavy) or B-SHAPE (bottom-heavy)
  → Best strategies: Liquidity Trap, Breaker Block entries, counter-trend CRT

Step 2: Match Session to Strategy

Step 3: Match Asset to Approach

Step 4: Confluence Check

Before entering ANY trade, verify:
□ Market regime identified (trending/ranging/transitioning)
□ Correct session for this strategy
□ Asset matches approach
□ HTF bias established
□ At least 2 confluences present (FVG + OB, S&D + VP, etc.)
□ Risk ≤ 1% | RR ≥ 2:1

Score < 4 confluences → SKIP
Score 4-6 → half size
Score 7+ → full size

Decision Tree

Is market TRENDING?
├── YES → Is it YOUR session killzone?
│   ├── YES → Use ICT/SMC trend strategies (MSS+FVG, Silver Bullet, Displacement Trap)
│   └── NO → Wait for your killzone or use session-transition strategies
└── NO → Is market RANGING?
    ├── YES → Use mean-reversion strategies (S&D fade, Asian range, VWAP reversion)
    └── TRANSITIONING → Use reversal strategies (Liquidity Trap, CRT, Breaker Block)

Related Skills

• Ict Smart Money
• Session Scalping
• Technical Analysis
• Price Action Strategies
• Trading Fundamentals

Universal Trading Rules (All Strategies)

1. Never risk more than 1–2% of account per trade
2. Always define stop loss BEFORE entry
3. Trade with the higher-timeframe trend when possible
4. Volume confirms breakouts — low-volume moves are suspect
5. Avoid trading into major news events unless that IS the strategy
6. Journal every trade — strategy, entry reason, result, lesson
7. Cut losses quickly; let winners run — do not move stops against position
8. Review strategy performance monthly — edge can decay
9. Check market regime first — wrong strategy in wrong regime = losses

Strategy Evaluation Criteria

• Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) — must be positive
• Sharpe Ratio > 1.0 acceptable; > 2.0 excellent
• Max Drawdown < 20% for most retail strategies
• Sample Size minimum 100 trades for statistical significance
• Robustness — test on out-of-sample data (walk-forward or holdout)
• Correlation — avoid strategies that fail at the same time

Quick Strategy Match by Condition