majiayu000 Cynefin Classify Skill
Classify problem domain and route to appropriate methods.
Workflow
Describe the problem in neutral terms.
Ask diagnostic questions:
- Can we predict the outcome of actions? (Yes=Clear/Complicated, No=Complex/Chaotic)
- Do experts agree on the approach? (Yes=Clear, Somewhat=Complicated, No=Complex)
- Is the situation stable? (Yes=Clear/Complicated/Complex, No=Chaotic)
- Has this been solved before? (Yes=Clear, Similar=Complicated, No=Complex)
Classify into one of five domains using cynefin-routing.md.
Select methods appropriate to the domain:
- Clear: Best practice, checklists, automation
- Complicated: Expert analysis, options evaluation, technical spikes
- Complex: Safe-to-fail probes, experiments, continuous discovery
- Chaotic: Stabilize, act, then reassess
- Confused: Decompose into classifiable parts (formerly "Disorder"; "Aporetic" when deliberately entering this state)
Cross-reference with Wardley evolution if strategic context is available.
Output:
## Cynefin Classification Problem: [description] Domain: [Clear/Complicated/Complex/Chaotic/Confused] Confidence: [High/Medium/Low] Liminal: [Yes/No — is this between domains?] Rationale: [why this classification] Recommended methods: - [method 1] - [method 2] Warning signs of misclassification: - [what would indicate we got it wrong]
Canvas Output
Update .claude/diamonds/active.yml with the cynefin_domain field for the relevant diamond.
If Wardley mapping was referenced, update .claude/canvas/landscape.yml component evolution stages.
Liminal Zones (Snowden, 2022+)
Most real decisions happen in liminal zones — transitional states between domains where characteristics of two adjacent domains blend. If the classification feels uncertain, you may be in a liminal zone rather than a pure domain.
| Transition | What it feels like | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Clear → Complicated | "We have a process but it's not covering edge cases" | Add expert analysis to the existing practice |
| Complicated → Complex | "Experts disagree and new factors keep emerging" | Shift from analysis to experimentation |
| Complex → Chaotic | "Our experiments aren't converging, things are getting worse" | Stabilize first, experiment later |
| Chaotic → Complex | "We've stopped the bleeding, now what?" | Design safe-to-fail probes |
| Clear → Chaotic (catastrophic fold) | "Everything was fine and then it all collapsed" | See warning below |
Clear→Chaotic Catastrophic Fold
The most important Cynefin warning: when a system in Clear becomes complacent — rigid rules, no sensing, "we've always done it this way" — it can catastrophically collapse into Chaotic with no warning. The transition is NOT gradual. There is no intermediate Complicated or Complex stage.
Detection signs: Over-reliance on best practices without questioning them. No feedback loops. "We don't need to monitor that." Dismissing edge cases as irrelevant.
Mycelium connection: Theory gates and /feedback-review prevent complacent drift by requiring evidence refresh and active sensing at every transition.
Source: Snowden (Cynefin evolution, cynefin.io, 2022+)
Decision Log (MANDATORY per G-P4)
APPEND a ### Cynefin Classification entry to harness/decision-log.md with: domain classified, key indicators, method routed to, confidence in classification.
Theory Citations
- Snowden: Cynefin framework (including Liminal zones and Confused/Aporetic domain renaming)
- Wardley: Evolution mapping