majiayu000 Forecast Variance Analysis
Analyze variances between Actuals, Budget, and Forecast scenarios.
Essential for FP&A reviews, planning adjustments, and performance tracking.
Arguments
| Argument | Description | Default |
|---|---|---|
--year <YYYY> |
REQUIRED Calendar year to analyze | — |
--scenarios <list> |
Comma-separated scenarios | Actuals,Budget,Forecast |
--period <YYYY-MM> |
Specific period to focus on | All year |
--output-xlsx <file> |
Excel output path | tmp/Forecast_Variance_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.xlsx |
--output-pptx <file> |
PowerPoint output path | tmp/Forecast_Summary_YYYY_TIMESTAMP.pptx |
Variance Analysis
Budget Variance
- Actual vs Budget amounts
- Percentage difference
- Favorable/unfavorable identification
- Trend analysis
Forecast Variance
- Actual vs Forecast amounts
- Track forecast accuracy
- Identify forecast bias
- Forecast adjustment recommendations
Multi-Account Analysis
- Revenue variance by product/segment
- Expense variance by department
- Account-level drill-down
- Root cause identification
Datarails Brand Styling
When generating Excel or PowerPoint files, apply Datarails brand styling:
Font: Poppins (fall back to Calibri if unavailable). Weights: 400 regular, 600 semibold, 700 bold.
Colors:
| Role | Hex | Use |
|---|---|---|
| Navy | 0C142B |
Header/banner background |
| Main text | 333333 |
Primary text |
| Secondary | 6D6E6F |
Muted/subtitle text |
| Border | 9EA1AA |
Cell borders |
| Section bg | F2F2FB |
Section header / row header background (lavender) |
| Input bg | EAEAFF |
Editable/input cell background |
| Input text | 4646CE |
Editable cell text (indigo) |
| Favorable | 2ECC71 |
Positive variance / good KPI delta |
| Unfavorable | E74C3C |
Negative variance / bad KPI delta |
| Chart 1 | 0C142B |
Actuals (navy) |
| Chart 2 | F93576 |
Budget (hot pink) |
| Chart 3 | 00B4D8 |
Teal |
| Chart 4 | FFA30F |
Amber |
Excel layout:
- Content starts at column B (column A is a narrow gutter)
- Rows 1-6: header banner with navy background, white title text, white subtitle
- Gridlines OFF. Freeze panes at B7.
- Footer as last row with generation date
- Every cell must have font, fill, alignment, and number format set
Number formats: _(* #,##0_);_(* (#,##0);_(* "-"_);_(@_) (default), $#,##0 (dollars), $#,##0.0,,"M" (millions), 0.0% (percent)
Variance coloring: Any cell showing a delta/change: green (2ECC71) if favorable, red (E74C3C) if unfavorable. Apply automatically based on value sign and metric context.
PowerPoint: Navy (0C142B) background, 16:9 widescreen, Poppins font, white text, amber (FFA30F) accent lines, card backgrounds 001F37.
Output
Excel Report
- Summary: Total variances by scenario
- Variance Analysis: Account-by-account comparison
- Scenario Totals: Total by scenario
- Exception Report: Large variances highlighted
PowerPoint Summary
- Overview slide: Scenario totals
- Variance slide: Top variances
- Executive summary
- Key findings
Examples
Annual variance analysis
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025
With custom scenarios
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
Specific period focus
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --period 2025-Q4
Custom output
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 \
--output-xlsx reports/variance_2025.xlsx \
--output-pptx reports/variance_summary.pptx
Use Cases
Monthly FP&A Review
# Compare latest actuals vs budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
Forecast Accuracy Tracking
# Compare forecast prediction accuracy
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast
Full Scenario Planning
# Complete comparison for board review
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget,Forecast
Department Review
# Analyze departmental performance vs budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025
Investor Update
# Professional variance analysis for stakeholders
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025
Performance
- Analysis: ~1-3 minutes
- Scales to multiple years
- Handles 100+ accounts
- Efficient aggregation
Interpretation
Favorable Variance
- Actual > Budget (Revenue) ✅
- Actual < Budget (Expense) ✅
Unfavorable Variance
- Actual < Budget (Revenue) ❌
- Actual > Budget (Expense) ❌
% Variance
- <5%: Excellent forecast/budget accuracy
- 5-10%: Good, within normal range
- 10%+: Needs investigation
Workflow
FP&A Process:
1. /dr-extract --year 2025 (Get actuals)
2. /dr-reconcile --year 2025 (Validate data)
3. /dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 (Analyze variances)
4. Present findings to leadership (Board meeting)
Advanced Usage
Track forecast improvement
# Monthly variance tracking
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-01
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Forecast --period 2025-02
# Compare forecast accuracy trend
Multi-year comparison
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2024 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget
# Compare year-over-year performance
Scenario sensitivity
# Three different budget scenarios
/dr-forecast-variance --year 2025 --scenarios Actuals,Budget_Conservative,Budget_Aggressive
Error Handling
"Scenario not found" - Verify scenario exists in data
"No variance data" - Confirm Budget/Forecast scenarios available
"Large variance" - Review detailed Excel report for root causes
Integration
Works with:
/dr-extract- Source of scenario data/dr-insights- Contextual trend analysis/dr-reconcile- Validate scenario consistency/dr-dashboard- Current performance view
Related Skills
/dr-extract- Extract scenario data/dr-insights- Understand drivers of variances/dr-reconcile- Validate data consistency/dr-dashboard- Real-time performance