How do I install the Edge skill?

Run npx skillmds@latest add majiayu000/edge in your terminal (requires Node.js), paste this page's agent-chat prompt into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-connected agent, or download the SKILL.md file and copy it into your agent's skills directory.

What does the Edge skill do?

Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources It is listed under Coding & Dev Tools on SkillMD.

This skill has not completed SkillMD's automated safety review yet. Independent scanners report: SkillSpector: PASS, Skill Scanner: PASS. Capability flags: docs only. SkillMD never runs a skill's scripts for you; review the SKILL.md before installing.

Which AI agents work with Edge?

This skill is tagged as working with Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex. SKILL.md is an open format, so most agents that read a skills directory can load it too.

Yes. Installing skills from SkillMD is free, and the skill stays under its author's original license.

majiayu000 (@majiayu000) published this skill. Their other Agent Skills are listed on their SkillMD profile.

Edge by majiayu000 — Agent Skill

Name: Edge
Rating: 4.2 (5 reviews)
Author: majiayu000

File contents

Edge Detection Skill

Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge.

Commands

Scan for Edge

/edge
/edge politics
/edge fed

Compare Specific Market

/edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds
/edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi

Kelly Calculator

/edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000
# probability, decimal odds, bankroll
/edge kelly 55 2.5
# 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll

Data Sources

Political

538/Silver Bulletin - Election models
RealClearPolitics - Polling averages
Betting Odds - Pinnacle, offshore books
PredictIt - Alternative market prices

Economic

CME FedWatch - Rate probabilities
Bloomberg Consensus - Economist forecasts
Treasury Yields - Implied expectations

Sports

Vegas Lines - Sharp money indicators
ESPN FPI - Power rankings
Historical Models - ELO ratings

Examples

User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels

User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence

User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll

Output Format

🎯 EDGE DETECTED

Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026"
Platform: Polymarket

Current Price: 23¢

External Sources:
• CME FedWatch: 41%
• Bloomberg Consensus: 38%
• Historical base rate: 35%

Estimated Fair Value: 38¢
Edge: +15¢ (+65%)
Confidence: Medium

Kelly Suggestion:
• Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll
• Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll

---name: edgedescription: Find mispriced markets by comparing to external models and data sources--- # Edge Detection Skill Compare prediction market prices to external models, polls, and data sources to find potential edge. ## Commands ### Scan for Edge ``` /edge /edge politics /edge fed ``` ### Compare Specific Market ``` /edge compare "Trump 2028" 538 betting-odds /edge compare "BTC above 100k" polymarket kalshi ``` ### Kelly Calculator ``` /edge kelly 0.6 2.0 1000 # probability, decimal odds, bankroll /edge kelly 55 2.5 # 55% prob, 2.5 odds, $100 default bankroll ``` ## Data Sources ### Political - **538/Silver Bulletin** - Election models - **RealClearPolitics** - Polling averages - **Betting Odds** - Pinnacle, offshore books - **PredictIt** - Alternative market prices ### Economic - **CME FedWatch** - Rate probabilities - **Bloomberg Consensus** - Economist forecasts - **Treasury Yields** - Implied expectations ### Sports - **Vegas Lines** - Sharp money indicators - **ESPN FPI** - Power rankings - **Historical Models** - ELO ratings ## Examples User: "Find me some edge" → Scan markets where price differs >10% from models → Return top opportunities with confidence levels User: "Is the Fed market fairly priced?" → Compare to CME FedWatch probabilities → Show discrepancy and confidence User: "What size should I bet if I think Trump is 55% to win but market says 45%?" → Kelly criterion: (0.55 * 0.55 - 0.45 * 0.45) / 0.55 = 18% of bankroll ## Output Format ``` 🎯 EDGE DETECTED Market: "Fed cuts rates in March 2026" Platform: Polymarket Current Price: 23¢ External Sources: • CME FedWatch: 41% • Bloomberg Consensus: 38% • Historical base rate: 35% Estimated Fair Value: 38¢ Edge: +15¢ (+65%) Confidence: Medium Kelly Suggestion: • Conservative (half-Kelly): 8% of bankroll • Aggressive (full-Kelly): 16% of bankroll ```

Frequently asked questions

Edge