majiayu000 Forecast Modeling System Skill
When to Use
- Launching new forecasting cadences or revisiting methodology.
- Running scenario planning ahead of board meetings or budget cycles.
- Auditing deviations between forecast, pipeline, and actuals.
Framework
- Method Selection – pick bottom-up CRM, top-down macro, cohort, or blended models and document assumptions.
- Driver Mapping – define win rates, velocity, expansion, churn, pricing, and seasonality inputs.
- Scenario Logic – establish base/upside/downside cases with tunable levers for sensitivity analysis.
- Model Governance – list data sources, refresh cadence, validation checks, and ownership.
- Output Packaging – standardize tables, charts, and narrative prompts for exec review.
Templates
- Driver tree diagram connecting levers to KPIs.
- Scenario sheet (assumption → base/upside/downside values).
- Model QA checklist (data freshness, formula audits, version history).
Tips
- Keep raw inputs + assumptions in version control for auditability.
- Pair with
variance-analysisskill to recalibrate after each cycle. - Automate sensitivity runs to answer "what-if" questions during reviews.