Foreclosure Analysis Skill

Foreclosure Analysis Skill

Executes the complete 12-stage Everest Ascent™ methodology for foreclosure auction intelligence.

When to Use This Skill

• Analyzing upcoming foreclosure auctions
• Processing new auction listings
• Generating investment recommendations
• Creating property reports for bidding decisions

The Everest Ascent™ Pipeline

Stage 1: Discovery

• Monitor RealForeclose.com for new listings
• Extract: case number, plaintiff, property address, auction date
• Filter: Brevard County only, exclude tax deeds
• Output: candidate_properties list

Stage 2: Scraping

• BCPAO Scraper: Property details, valuations, photos
• RealForeclose Scraper: Auction specifics, judgment amount
• AcclaimWeb Scraper: Mortgages, liens, legal descriptions
• RealTDM Scraper: Tax certificates, delinquencies
• Census API: Demographics, neighborhood data

Stage 3: Title Search

• Parse legal description
• Identify all recorded instruments
• Build chain of title
• Flag gaps or issues

Stage 4: Lien Priority Analysis

CRITICAL STAGE - Use lien-discovery-skill

• Identify lien positions (1st, 2nd, 3rd+)
• Detect HOA foreclosures (senior mortgage survives)
• Calculate lien satisfaction amounts
• Determine what buyer inherits

Stage 5: Tax Certificates

• Check RealTDM for outstanding certificates
• Calculate tax debt
• Verify redemption status
• Add to cost basis

Stage 6: Demographics

• Census API: median income, vacancy rate
• Neighborhood score: rental demand, appreciation potential
• Target zips: 32937, 32940, 32953, 32903
• Flag: optimal for Third Sword MTR strategy

Stage 7: ML Prediction

• XGBoost model: third-party purchase probability (64.4% accuracy)
• Features: plaintiff, property type, judgment amount, location
• Output: probability score 0-1
• Brand as "BrevardBidderAI ML" in reports

Stage 8: Max Bid Calculation

Use max-bid-calculator-skill

• Formula: (ARV×70%) - Repairs - $10K - MIN($25K, 15%×ARV)
• ARV: After-repair value from BCPAO + comps
• Repairs: Conservative estimate based on age/condition
• Holding costs: $10K standard
• Profit buffer: $25K or 15% ARV (whichever less)

Stage 9: Decision Logic

• Calculate bid/judgment ratio
• BID: Ratio ≥ 75% (strong value)
• REVIEW: Ratio 60-74% (marginal, needs human review)
• SKIP: Ratio < 60% (insufficient value)
• DO_NOT_BID: HOA foreclosure with senior mortgage

Stage 10: Report Generation

• One-page DOCX format
• BrevardBidderAI branding (NOT Property360)
• Include: property details, BCPAO photo, max bid, decision, rationale
• ML prediction prominently displayed
• Lien analysis summary

Stage 11: Disposition Tracking

• Log to Supabase auction_results table
• Fields: property_id, decision, max_bid, actual_bid, outcome
• Track: won/lost/skipped
• Calculate: actual ROI vs predicted

Stage 12: Archive

• Store all data in Supabase historical_auctions
• Preserve: scraper outputs, ML predictions, decisions
• Enable: backtesting, model improvements, pattern analysis

Data Sources & APIs

RealForeclose: brevard.realforeclose.com (auction listings) BCPAO: gis.brevardfl.gov/gissrv/rest/services/Base_Map/Parcel_New_WKID2881/MapServer/5 AcclaimWeb: Search by case number, parcel ID RealTDM: Tax certificate search by parcel Census: api.census.gov/data (demographics)

Decision Rules

Auto-BID if:

• Bid/judgment ≥ 75%
• No HOA foreclosure issues
• Clean title chain
• Target zip code (optional boost)

Flag REVIEW if:

• Bid/judgment 60-74%
• Minor title issues
• Unusual property characteristics
• High repair uncertainty

Auto-SKIP if:

• Bid/judgment < 60%
• Insufficient margin
• High risk factors

DO_NOT_BID if:

• HOA foreclosure + senior mortgage survives
• Title defects
• Legal complications

Output Format

{
  "property_id": "2024-CA-001234",
  "address": "123 Main St, Melbourne FL 32940",
  "decision": "BID",
  "max_bid": 285000,
  "judgment": 320000,
  "bid_ratio": 0.89,
  "ml_probability": 0.72,
  "lien_analysis": "Clean 1st position",
  "reasoning": "Strong equity position, target zip, clean title"
}

Example Usage

"Analyze the December 3rd foreclosure auction using foreclosure-analysis-skill"

"Process new RealForeclose listings with the Everest Ascent pipeline"

Integration Points

• Triggers lien-discovery-skill at Stage 4
• Triggers max-bid-calculator-skill at Stage 8
• Uses bcpao-data-extraction-skill throughout
• Logs to Supabase at Stages 11-12

Best Practices

1. NO GUESSING: Always use actual recorded documents
2. Verify Everything: Don't trust automated data blindly
3. Conservative Repairs: Better to overestimate than underestimate
4. Document Reasoning: Every decision needs clear rationale
5. Track Performance: Log actual vs predicted outcomes