Prioritization Framework

Prioritization Framework Skill

Purpose

This skill applies quantitative prioritization frameworks (RICE, ICE, MoSCoW) to rank features and create data-driven backlogs.

Use this skill when:

• Product Manager needs to prioritize the backlog
• Deciding what to build first (strategic roadmap planning)
• User asks "what should we build next?"
• During backlog grooming or sprint planning
• Comparing multiple feature candidates

Framework Selection Guide

Choose the right framework for your context:

Default recommendation: ICE for quick decisions, RICE for important prioritization.

RICE Scoring

Formula

RICE Score = (Reach × Impact × Confidence) / Effort

Higher score = higher priority

Parameters

1. Reach - How many users affected per time period?

   • Estimate users per quarter (e.g., 1000 users will use this feature in Q1)
   • Be specific: "All users" = total user base count
   • "Power users only" = estimate that subset

2. Impact - How much value does it create per user?

   • 3 = Massive impact (transforms workflow, solves critical pain point)
   • 2 = High impact (significant improvement, removes major friction)
   • 1 = Medium impact (nice improvement, makes things easier)
   • 0.5 = Low impact (small convenience, minor enhancement)
   • 0.25 = Minimal impact (cosmetic, rarely noticed)

3. Confidence - How certain are you about Reach and Impact estimates?

   • 100% = Strong data, validated user research, proven demand
   • 80% = Good evidence, some user feedback, reasonable assumptions
   • 50% = Educated guess, limited data, hypothetical

4. Effort - How many person-days to build?

   • Include design, development, testing, review, deployment
   • Ask Technical PM for effort estimates if uncertain
   • Account for complexity and unknowns

Example Calculation

Feature: Dark mode for Stellaris

• Reach: 500 users per quarter (50% of user base prefers dark mode)
• Impact: 1 (medium - improves UX, not transformative)
• Confidence: 80% (user feedback supports this)
• Effort: 5 person-days (frontend + testing)

RICE Score = (500 × 1 × 0.8) / 5 = 80

ICE Scoring

Formula

ICE Score = (Impact + Confidence + Ease) / 3

Higher score = higher priority. Score range: 1-10.

Parameters

All rated on 1-10 scale:

1. Impact - User value created (1=minimal, 10=transformative)

   • 9-10: Solves critical pain point, game-changing
   • 7-8: Major improvement, highly valuable
   • 5-6: Moderate improvement, useful
   • 3-4: Minor improvement, nice-to-have
   • 1-2: Minimal value, cosmetic

2. Confidence - Certainty of success (1=wild guess, 10=proven)

   • 9-10: Strong data, validated demand, proven approach
   • 7-8: Good evidence, user feedback supports
   • 5-6: Reasonable assumption, some supporting data
   • 3-4: Educated guess, limited validation
   • 1-2: Pure hypothesis, no evidence

3. Ease - Inverse of effort (1=very hard, 10=trivial)

   • 9-10: Hours of work, no dependencies
   • 7-8: 1-2 days, simple implementation
   • 5-6: 3-5 days, moderate complexity
   • 3-4: 1-2 weeks, complex or risky
   • 1-2: Weeks/months, major undertaking

Example Calculation

Feature: Dark mode for Stellaris

• Impact: 6 (moderate improvement, improves UX)
• Confidence: 8 (user feedback supports, proven pattern)
• Ease: 7 (5 days effort, moderate)

ICE Score = (6 + 8 + 7) / 3 = 7.0

MoSCoW Categorization

Categories

• Must Have - Non-negotiable for this release (60% max of capacity)
• Should Have - Important but not critical (can defer if needed)
• Could Have - Nice-to-have if capacity allows (20% buffer)
• Won't Have - Explicitly out of scope for this release

Assignment Rules

1. Must Have:

   • Blockers for other work
   • Critical bugs affecting all users
   • Compliance/security requirements
   • Core functionality for release goal

2. Should Have:

   • High-value features (RICE/ICE score > 7)
   • Major UX improvements
   • High-demand user requests

3. Could Have:

   • Medium-value features (RICE/ICE score 4-7)
   • Polish and refinements
   • Buffer for unexpected work

4. Won't Have:

   • Low-value features (RICE/ICE score < 4)
   • Can wait for next release
   • Explicitly deferred

Capacity Rule

Must Have should be ≤60% of total capacity to leave buffer for:

• Unexpected bugs
• Scope creep
• Learning/unknowns

Output Format

RICE/ICE Ranked Backlog

Write to 00 Inbox/backlog/prioritized-backlog.md:

# Prioritized Backlog

**Last updated:** [ISO timestamp]
**Framework used:** [RICE/ICE]
**Total items:** [count]

---

## Ranked Items

| Rank | Item | Score | Reach | Impact | Confidence | Effort | Status |
|------|------|-------|-------|--------|------------|--------|--------|
| 1 | Dark mode | 80 | 500 | 1.0 | 80% | 5d | Ready for scoping |
| 2 | Offline lessons | 75 | 800 | 2.0 | 50% | 8d | Needs spike |
| 3 | PDF export | 40 | 200 | 1.0 | 80% | 4d | Ready for scoping |

**Top 3 priorities:**
1. Dark mode (RICE: 80) - Ready for Technical PM scoping
2. Offline lessons (RICE: 75) - Needs spike for offline storage approach
3. PDF export (RICE: 40) - Ready for plan creation

**Deferred (score < 20):**
- Custom color themes (RICE: 15) - Low reach, defer to future release

MoSCoW Release Plan

Write to 00 Inbox/backlog/release-plan-[release-name].md:

# Release Plan: [Release Name/Version]

**Last updated:** [ISO timestamp]
**Framework used:** MoSCoW
**Target release date:** [date]
**Team capacity:** [person-days available]

---

## Must Have (60% capacity = [X] days)

- [ ] Feature 1 (5d) - [Brief description]
- [ ] Feature 2 (8d) - [Brief description]

**Total:** [Y] days ([Z]% of capacity)

---

## Should Have

- [ ] Feature 3 (3d) - [Brief description]
- [ ] Feature 4 (5d) - [Brief description]

**Total:** [Y] days

---

## Could Have (Buffer)

- [ ] Feature 5 (2d) - [Brief description]
- [ ] Feature 6 (4d) - [Brief description]

**Total:** [Y] days

---

## Won't Have (This Release)

- Feature 7 - Deferred to next release (low priority)
- Feature 8 - Needs more user validation

---

## Release Health Check

- Must Have at [X]% capacity (target: ≤60%) → [PASS/WARN]
- Buffer available: [Y] days → [PASS/WARN]
- All Must Have items clearly defined → [PASS/WARN]

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Input

Collect items to prioritize from:

• 00 Inbox/feedback/ (recent user feedback)
• 00 Inbox/backlog/ (existing backlog items)
• User-provided feature list

For each item, you need:

• Feature description
• User need it serves
• Rough effort estimate (ask Technical PM if uncertain)

Step 2: Choose Framework

Ask user or default:

• RICE if strategic/important prioritization
• ICE if quick triage needed
• MoSCoW if release planning

Step 3: Score Each Item

For RICE:

1. Estimate Reach (users per quarter)
2. Assess Impact (0.25 to 3 scale)
3. Determine Confidence (50%, 80%, 100%)
4. Get Effort estimate (person-days)
5. Calculate: (R × I × C) / E

For ICE:

1. Rate Impact (1-10)
2. Rate Confidence (1-10)
3. Rate Ease (1-10, inverse of effort)
4. Calculate: (I + C + E) / 3

For MoSCoW:

1. Identify Must Haves (blockers, critical)
2. Identify Should Haves (high value)
3. Identify Could Haves (nice-to-have)
4. Identify Won't Haves (deferred)
5. Verify Must Have ≤60% capacity

Step 4: Rank and Write Output

• Sort by score (highest first)
• Write to appropriate file
• Highlight top 3-5 priorities
• Note any items needing Technical PM scoping or spikes

Step 5: Communicate Results

Summarize for Product Manager:

• Top priorities ready for action
• Items needing investigation
• Deferred items with reasoning
• Total estimated effort for top N items

Validation Rules

Before finalizing backlog:

1. Score sanity check:

   • RICE scores typically range 1-200 (outliers possible)
   • ICE scores range 1-10 (average should be 4-6)
   • If all items score >8, recalibrate (too optimistic)
   • If all items score <3, recalibrate (too pessimistic)

2. Effort estimates:

   • If effort unknown, mark "Needs Technical PM scoping"
   • Don't guess effort - ask Technical PM for estimates
   • Account for testing, review, deployment time

3. Confidence checks:

   • If confidence <50%, consider user research or spike
   • High-effort + low-confidence = risky, flag for investigation

4. Must Have capacity:

   • For MoSCoW: Must Have should be ≤60% capacity
   • If >60%, move items to Should Have

Example Invocation

Product Manager: "Prioritize the current backlog using ICE scoring"

You (skill execution):
1. Read items from 00 Inbox/feedback/intake-2025-12-30.md
2. Read items from 00 Inbox/backlog/unprioritized.md
3. For each item:
   - Rate Impact: How valuable to users? (1-10)
   - Rate Confidence: How certain of success? (1-10)
   - Rate Ease: How easy to build? (1-10)
   - Calculate ICE score
4. Sort by score (highest first)
5. Write to 00 Inbox/backlog/prioritized-backlog.md
6. Return summary:

   "Prioritized 15 backlog items using ICE framework.

   Top 3 priorities:
   1. Dark mode (ICE: 7.0) - Ready for scoping
   2. Offline lessons (ICE: 6.7) - Needs spike
   3. PDF export (ICE: 6.3) - Ready for scoping

   Medium priority (5 items, scores 4-6):
   - Audio waveform visualization (ICE: 5.5)
   - Custom lesson playlists (ICE: 5.0)
   - ...

   Low priority (7 items, scores <4):
   - Custom color themes (ICE: 3.2) - Defer
   - ...

   Next steps:
   - Technical PM scoping for top 2 ready items
   - Spike for offline lessons approach
   - Defer low-priority items to future release

   Full backlog: 00 Inbox/backlog/prioritized-backlog.md"

Dealing with Ties

If multiple items have identical scores:

1. Secondary criteria:

   • Strategic alignment (roadmap fit)
   • Dependencies (unblocks other work)
   • User pain level (critical vs nice-to-have)
   • Time sensitivity (contractual deadline, seasonal)

2. Ask Product Manager: "Items A and B have identical ICE scores (6.5). Which should take priority?

   • Item A: [description]
   • Item B: [description]"

Important Notes

• Scoring is subjective - Frameworks provide structure, not absolute truth
• Get effort estimates from Technical PM - Don't guess complex work
• Update regularly - Re-score as new data emerges
• Document assumptions - Record why you scored items a certain way
• Bias toward action - ICE for speed, RICE for rigor, both are valid

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

1. Overconfidence: Don't rate everything 100% confidence - be realistic
2. Effort underestimation: Always ask Technical PM for complex features
3. Impact inflation: Not everything is "high impact" - calibrate realistically
4. Ignoring capacity: MoSCoW Must Have >80% = recipe for failure
5. Analysis paralysis: ICE is good enough for most decisions - don't overthink

Remember: Prioritization frameworks are tools to support decisions, not replace judgment. Use them to structure thinking and communicate reasoning, but always apply product sense and strategic context.