Risk Cycle

risk-cycle

Continuous risk identification, assessment, tracking, and retirement throughout SDLC.

Triggers

• "risk review"
• "update risks"
• "new risk"
• "risk status"
• "mitigate risk"
• "retire risk"
• "risk cycle"

Purpose

This skill manages continuous risk management by:

• Identifying new risks from project activities
• Assessing risk severity and probability
• Tracking mitigation progress
• Escalating overdue or critical risks
• Retiring completed risk mitigations
• Generating risk reports for stakeholders

Behavior

When triggered, this skill:

1. Reviews current state:

   • Load risk register
   • Check mitigation status
   • Identify overdue items

2. Identifies new risks:

   • Analyze recent changes
   • Review technical decisions
   • Check external factors
   • Gather team input

3. Assesses risks:

   • Score probability and impact
   • Calculate risk score
   • Prioritize by exposure

4. Plans mitigations:

   • Assign owners
   • Define mitigation actions
   • Set target dates

5. Tracks progress:

   • Update mitigation status
   • Escalate overdue items
   • Retire completed risks

6. Reports status:

   • Generate risk dashboard
   • Highlight top risks
   • Show trend over time

Risk Categories

Technical Risks

technical_risks:
  architecture:
    examples:
      - Scalability bottleneck
      - Single point of failure
      - Technology obsolescence
      - Integration complexity
    indicators:
      - Performance degradation
      - System failures
      - Upgrade difficulties

  development:
    examples:
      - Technical debt accumulation
      - Code quality issues
      - Testing gaps
      - Dependency vulnerabilities
    indicators:
      - Increasing bug count
      - Slower velocity
      - Failed deployments

  security:
    examples:
      - Data breach potential
      - Authentication weaknesses
      - Compliance gaps
      - Third-party risks
    indicators:
      - Security scan findings
      - Audit failures
      - Incident reports

Project Risks

project_risks:
  schedule:
    examples:
      - Scope creep
      - Delayed dependencies
      - Unrealistic estimates
      - Resource constraints
    indicators:
      - Missed milestones
      - Velocity decline
      - Scope changes

  resource:
    examples:
      - Key person dependency
      - Skill gaps
      - Team turnover
      - Burnout risk
    indicators:
      - Unbalanced workload
      - Low morale
      - Resignation signals

  stakeholder:
    examples:
      - Changing requirements
      - Sponsor availability
      - Organizational changes
      - Competing priorities
    indicators:
      - Decision delays
      - Priority conflicts
      - Reduced engagement

External Risks

external_risks:
  market:
    examples:
      - Competitor actions
      - Market shift
      - Economic factors
      - Regulatory changes
    indicators:
      - Market news
      - Competitor releases
      - Industry reports

  vendor:
    examples:
      - Vendor stability
      - API changes
      - Price increases
      - Support quality
    indicators:
      - Vendor communications
      - Service issues
      - Contract terms

  compliance:
    examples:
      - Regulatory requirements
      - Industry standards
      - Audit requirements
      - Data regulations
    indicators:
      - Regulatory updates
      - Audit findings
      - Compliance gaps

Risk Assessment Matrix

Probability Scoring

probability:
  certain:
    score: 5
    likelihood: ">90%"
    description: "Almost certain to occur"

  likely:
    score: 4
    likelihood: "60-90%"
    description: "More likely than not"

  possible:
    score: 3
    likelihood: "30-60%"
    description: "Could occur"

  unlikely:
    score: 2
    likelihood: "10-30%"
    description: "Not expected but possible"

  rare:
    score: 1
    likelihood: "<10%"
    description: "Very unlikely"

Impact Scoring

impact:
  catastrophic:
    score: 5
    schedule: ">3 months delay"
    cost: ">50% budget"
    quality: "Unusable product"
    reputation: "Major damage"

  major:
    score: 4
    schedule: "1-3 months delay"
    cost: "25-50% budget"
    quality: "Significant defects"
    reputation: "Serious concern"

  moderate:
    score: 3
    schedule: "2-4 weeks delay"
    cost: "10-25% budget"
    quality: "Noticeable issues"
    reputation: "Some concern"

  minor:
    score: 2
    schedule: "1-2 weeks delay"
    cost: "5-10% budget"
    quality: "Minor issues"
    reputation: "Limited impact"

  negligible:
    score: 1
    schedule: "<1 week delay"
    cost: "<5% budget"
    quality: "Trivial issues"
    reputation: "No impact"

Risk Score Matrix

           │ Impact
           │ 1   2   3   4   5
───────────┼─────────────────────
Prob    5  │ 5  10  15  20  25 ←Critical
        4  │ 4   8  12  16  20
        3  │ 3   6   9  12  15 ←High
        2  │ 2   4   6   8  10
        1  │ 1   2   3   4   5  ←Medium
           └─────────────────────
              ↑        ↑
              Low    Medium

risk_levels:
  critical:
    range: [20, 25]
    response: "Immediate action required"
    escalation: "Executive notification"

  high:
    range: [12, 19]
    response: "Priority mitigation"
    escalation: "Manager notification"

  medium:
    range: [6, 11]
    response: "Planned mitigation"
    escalation: "Team lead notification"

  low:
    range: [1, 5]
    response: "Monitor and accept"
    escalation: "None required"

Risk Register Format

# Risk Register

**Project**: [Name]
**Last Updated**: 2025-12-08
**Next Review**: 2025-12-15

## Summary Dashboard

| Risk Level | Count | Trend |
|------------|-------|-------|
| Critical | 1 | ↑ +1 |
| High | 3 | → 0 |
| Medium | 8 | ↓ -2 |
| Low | 12 | → 0 |
| **Total** | **24** | - |

### Risk Trend

Week 1: ████████████████████████ 24 risks Week 2: ██████████████████████ 22 risks Week 3: ████████████████████████ 24 risks (2 new) Week 4: ████████████████████████ 24 risks ↑ Stable with critical +1

## Active Risks

### RISK-001: Database Scalability [CRITICAL]

| Attribute | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| ID | RISK-001 |
| Title | Database Scalability Bottleneck |
| Category | Technical / Architecture |
| Probability | 4 (Likely) |
| Impact | 5 (Catastrophic) |
| Score | 20 (Critical) |
| Owner | Sarah Chen |
| Status | Mitigating |

**Description**:
Current PostgreSQL single-instance architecture cannot handle projected 10x traffic growth. Performance degradation expected within 6 months.

**Impact if Realized**:
- Service degradation or outage
- Customer churn
- Revenue loss estimated at $500K/month

**Mitigation Plan**:
1. [x] Evaluate sharding options (complete)
2. [x] Design read replica architecture (complete)
3. [ ] Implement connection pooling (in progress, due Dec 15)
4. [ ] Deploy read replicas (planned, due Jan 15)
5. [ ] Implement sharding (planned, due Feb 15)

**Contingency**:
Emergency vertical scaling + temporary traffic limiting

**Progress**:

[████████████░░░░░░░░] 60%

---

### RISK-002: Key Person Dependency [HIGH]

| Attribute | Value |
|-----------|-------|
| ID | RISK-002 |
| Title | Key Person Dependency on Lead Architect |
| Category | Project / Resource |
| Probability | 3 (Possible) |
| Impact | 4 (Major) |
| Score | 12 (High) |
| Owner | David Kim |
| Status | Mitigating |

**Description**:
Lead architect holds critical system knowledge. No backup identified.

**Mitigation Plan**:
1. [ ] Document architecture decisions (in progress)
2. [ ] Schedule knowledge transfer sessions
3. [ ] Identify and train backup

---

## Recently Retired Risks

### RISK-012: Third-Party API Stability [RETIRED]

- **Retired**: 2025-12-01
- **Original Score**: 12 (High)
- **Mitigation**: Implemented circuit breaker and fallback
- **Outcome**: Risk eliminated through technical solution

---

## Risk Review Actions

### This Week
- [ ] Complete RISK-001 connection pooling
- [ ] Schedule RISK-002 knowledge transfer
- [ ] Review new vendor contract for RISK-008

### Overdue
- ⚠️ RISK-005: Security audit (2 days overdue)
  - Owner: Elena Rodriguez
  - Escalated to: Team Lead

Usage Examples

Risk Review

User: "Risk review"

Skill executes:
1. Load current risk register
2. Check mitigation status
3. Identify overdue items
4. Prompt for new risks

Output:
"Risk Review Summary

Current Status:
- Critical: 1 (RISK-001: DB Scalability) ← Action needed
- High: 3
- Medium: 8
- Low: 12

Mitigation Progress:
✅ RISK-001: 60% complete (on track)
✅ RISK-002: 40% complete (on track)
⚠️ RISK-005: Security audit 2 days overdue

Top Priority:
RISK-001 needs connection pooling by Dec 15

Questions:
1. Any new risks identified this week?
2. Update on RISK-005 delay?"

Add New Risk

User: "New risk: vendor pricing increase"

Skill guides:
1. Capture risk details
2. Assess probability/impact
3. Add to register

Output:
"Adding New Risk

Let me capture the details:

**Title**: Vendor Pricing Increase
**Category**: External / Vendor

Assessment Questions:
1. How likely is this? (1-5)
2. What's the potential impact? (1-5)
3. When might this occur?
4. Who should own mitigation?

Or say 'quick add' to use defaults."

Mitigate Risk

User: "Mitigate RISK-002"

Skill guides:
1. Review current mitigation plan
2. Update progress
3. Adjust actions if needed

Output:
"RISK-002: Key Person Dependency

Current Mitigation Plan:
1. [ ] Document architecture decisions (in progress)
2. [ ] Schedule knowledge transfer sessions
3. [ ] Identify and train backup

Current Progress: 40%

What would you like to update?
1. Mark task complete
2. Add new mitigation action
3. Adjust timeline
4. Escalate issue"

Retire Risk

User: "Retire RISK-012"

Skill processes:
1. Verify mitigation complete
2. Document outcome
3. Move to retired list

Output:
"Retiring RISK-012: Third-Party API Stability

Verification:
- Circuit breaker: ✅ Implemented
- Fallback mechanism: ✅ Tested
- Monitoring: ✅ Active

Outcome Documentation:
Risk eliminated through technical solution.
No incidents since mitigation deployed (30 days).

✅ RISK-012 moved to retired risks.
Risk count: 24 → 23"

Integration

This skill uses:

• project-awareness: Current phase and activity context
• artifact-metadata: Track risk artifact versions
• decision-support: Complex risk decisions

Agent Orchestration

agents:
  risk_assessment:
    agent: project-manager
    focus: Project risk evaluation

  technical_analysis:
    agent: architecture-designer
    focus: Technical risk assessment
    condition: risk_category == "technical"

  security_assessment:
    agent: security-architect
    focus: Security risk evaluation
    condition: risk_category == "security"

Configuration

Review Schedule

review_schedule:
  weekly:
    day: "Monday"
    time: "10:00"
    scope: active_risks

  monthly:
    day: 1
    scope: full_register

  phase_gate:
    trigger: gate_check
    scope: blocking_risks

Escalation Rules

escalation:
  overdue:
    threshold: 2_days
    notify: owner_manager

  critical_new:
    threshold: score >= 20
    notify: [project_manager, sponsor]

  trend_increase:
    threshold: 3_consecutive_increases
    notify: project_manager

Output Locations

• Risk register: .aiwg/risks/risk-register.md
• Risk reports: .aiwg/risks/reports/
• Retired risks: .aiwg/risks/retired/
• Risk trends: .aiwg/risks/trends/

References

• Risk templates: templates/management/risk-*.md
• Risk matrix: docs/risk-assessment-matrix.md
• Escalation procedures: docs/risk-escalation.md