Startup Idea Validation
Systematic validation for testing ideas before building: define hypotheses, collect evidence, score the opportunity, and make a decision you can defend.
Operating Principles (2026)
- Prefer decisions over inventories: each dimension ends with
GO / CONDITIONAL / PIVOT / NO-GO and a next action.
- Separate evidence quality from confidence: weak evidence cannot justify a high score.
- Pre-register thresholds and stop rules before running experiments (avoid moving goalposts).
- Validate willingness-to-pay and time-to-value early (price is part of the product).
- Calibrate thresholds to the target outcome (venture-scale vs cash-flow business) and business model (B2B SaaS, B2C, marketplace, services).
- Stay safe and ethical: no misrepresentation, respect ToS, and handle customer data with minimization and retention limits.
Intake Checklist (Ask First)
- One-sentence idea + target user + job-to-be-done
- Business model: B2B/B2C, SaaS/usage-based/marketplace/services, ACV/ARPU range
- Geography, constraints (regulated domain, procurement/security requirements, data access)
- Target outcome: venture-scale, profitable small business, or thesis-driven R&D
- Current evidence: interviews, pilots, pre-sales, traffic, competitor list, pricing assumptions
Choose the Right Output
| If the user asks… |
Produce… |
Use… |
| “Validate this idea” / “Is this worth building?” |
9-dimension scorecard + verdict |
validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md |
| “What’s the riskiest assumption?” |
RAT + test plan |
riskiest-assumption-test.md, validation-experiment-planner.md |
| “Test my hypothesis” |
Hypothesis canvas + experiment design |
hypothesis-canvas.md, hypothesis-testing-guide.md |
| “Market size for X” |
TAM/SAM/SOM sizing + assumptions table |
market-sizing-worksheet.md, market-sizing-patterns.md |
| “Can this be profitable / what’s my runway?” |
Unit economics + runway + scenarios |
financial-modeling-calculator.md |
| “Should I build X or Y?” |
Comparative scorecard + decision memo |
validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md |
Workflow
- Clarify the target outcome and business model; set default thresholds accordingly.
- Identify the RAT (the assumption that kills the business if wrong).
- Plan the validation ladder: interviews -> smoke test -> concierge/WoZ -> paid pilot.
- Run the cheapest falsifiable test first; pre-register PASS/FAIL thresholds and stop rules.
- Score all 9 dimensions using evidence; downgrade scores when evidence is weak.
- Produce a decision memo: verdict, why, what would change the decision, and the next smallest reversible step.
9-Dimension Scorecard
| Dimension |
Weight |
What it measures |
| Problem severity |
15% |
Urgency, cost of inaction, current workarounds |
| Market size |
12% |
Sufficient demand for the target outcome |
| Market timing |
10% |
Clear “why now” and tailwinds |
| Competitive moat |
12% |
Defensibility over time |
| Unit economics |
15% |
Profit path (incl. payback and margins) |
| Founder-market fit |
8% |
Access, expertise, and execution capability |
| Technical feasibility |
10% |
Buildability, dependencies, constraints |
| GTM clarity |
10% |
ICP, channels, motion, first customers |
| Risk profile |
8% |
What can kill it and likelihood |
Verdict thresholds (default):
80–100: GO60–79: CONDITIONAL (validate RAT first)40–59: PIVOT<40: NO-GO
Deep scoring rubrics and calibration live in validation-methodology.md.
Evidence Rules
- Strong evidence is behavioral commitment with cost (time, money, switching, access); weak evidence is opinions and hypotheticals.
- Triangulate important claims across at least two sources (especially market sizing and competitor state).
- Keep an evidence trail: link + capture month; separate “fact” vs “assumption”.
Validation Ladder (Default)
| Step |
Goal |
Strong signal |
| Interviews |
Validate the problem and context |
Repeated pain with real workarounds and spend |
| Smoke test |
Validate demand |
Qualified conversion with price shown |
| Concierge/WoZ |
Validate workflow value |
Users complete the job and return |
| Paid pilot |
Validate willingness-to-pay |
Paid, renewed, or expanded |
AI / Automation Notes (2026)
If the idea depends on AI (agents, copilots, automation), validate these explicitly:
- Data rights and access: can you legally and reliably access required data?
- Reliability: define success metrics, failure modes, and human fallback; validate on real workflows.
- Cost-to-serve: model inference + retrieval + human-in-the-loop costs in
assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md.
See hypothesis-testing-guide.md for AI-specific experiment patterns.
Integration Points
Receives From
Feeds Into
Resources
| Resource |
Purpose |
| validation-methodology.md |
Scoring rubrics and calibration |
| hypothesis-testing-guide.md |
Experiment design and RAT workflows |
| market-sizing-patterns.md |
TAM/SAM/SOM methods and pitfalls |
| moat-assessment-framework.md |
Defensibility analysis |
Templates
| Template |
Purpose |
| validation-scorecard.md |
Full 9-dimension scoring |
| go-no-go-decision.md |
Decision memo format |
| hypothesis-canvas.md |
Hypothesis definition |
| validation-experiment-planner.md |
Experiment planning + thresholds |
| riskiest-assumption-test.md |
RAT identification and test design |
| market-sizing-worksheet.md |
Sizing worksheet |
| financial-modeling-calculator.md |
Runway + scenarios + unit economics |
Data
| File |
Purpose |
| sources.json |
Curated validation resources |
1---2name: startup-idea-validation3description: Use when validating a startup idea before building. Produces evidence-based GO/NO-GO decisions using a 9-dimension scorecard (problem, market, timing, moat, unit economics, founder-market fit, feasibility, GTM, risk), a validation ladder (interviews -> smoke test -> concierge/WoZ -> paid pilot), and riskiest-assumption-first experiments.4---5
6# Startup Idea Validation
7
8Systematic validation for testing ideas before building: define hypotheses, collect evidence, score the opportunity, and make a decision you can defend.
9
10## Operating Principles (2026)
11
12- Prefer decisions over inventories: each dimension ends with `GO / CONDITIONAL / PIVOT / NO-GO` and a next action.
13- Separate evidence quality from confidence: weak evidence cannot justify a high score.
14- Pre-register thresholds and stop rules before running experiments (avoid moving goalposts).
15- Validate willingness-to-pay and time-to-value early (price is part of the product).
16- Calibrate thresholds to the target outcome (venture-scale vs cash-flow business) and business model (B2B SaaS, B2C, marketplace, services).
17- Stay safe and ethical: no misrepresentation, respect ToS, and handle customer data with minimization and retention limits.
18
19## Intake Checklist (Ask First)
20
21- One-sentence idea + target user + job-to-be-done
22- Business model: B2B/B2C, SaaS/usage-based/marketplace/services, ACV/ARPU range
23- Geography, constraints (regulated domain, procurement/security requirements, data access)
24- Target outcome: venture-scale, profitable small business, or thesis-driven R&D
25- Current evidence: interviews, pilots, pre-sales, traffic, competitor list, pricing assumptions
26
27## Choose the Right Output
28
29| If the user asks… | Produce… | Use… |
30|---|---|---|
31| “Validate this idea” / “Is this worth building?” | 9-dimension scorecard + verdict | [validation-scorecard.md](assets/validation-scorecard.md), [go-no-go-decision.md](assets/go-no-go-decision.md) |
32| “What’s the riskiest assumption?” | RAT + test plan | [riskiest-assumption-test.md](assets/riskiest-assumption-test.md), [validation-experiment-planner.md](assets/validation-experiment-planner.md) |
33| “Test my hypothesis” | Hypothesis canvas + experiment design | [hypothesis-canvas.md](assets/hypothesis-canvas.md), [hypothesis-testing-guide.md](references/hypothesis-testing-guide.md) |
34| “Market size for X” | TAM/SAM/SOM sizing + assumptions table | [market-sizing-worksheet.md](assets/market-sizing-worksheet.md), [market-sizing-patterns.md](references/market-sizing-patterns.md) |
35| “Can this be profitable / what’s my runway?” | Unit economics + runway + scenarios | [financial-modeling-calculator.md](assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md) |
36| “Should I build X or Y?” | Comparative scorecard + decision memo | [validation-scorecard.md](assets/validation-scorecard.md), [go-no-go-decision.md](assets/go-no-go-decision.md) |
37
38## Workflow
39
401. Clarify the target outcome and business model; set default thresholds accordingly.
412. Identify the RAT (the assumption that kills the business if wrong).
423. Plan the validation ladder: interviews -> smoke test -> concierge/WoZ -> paid pilot.
434. Run the cheapest falsifiable test first; pre-register PASS/FAIL thresholds and stop rules.
445. Score all 9 dimensions using evidence; downgrade scores when evidence is weak.
456. Produce a decision memo: verdict, why, what would change the decision, and the next smallest reversible step.
46
47## 9-Dimension Scorecard
48
49| Dimension | Weight | What it measures |
50|---|---:|---|
51| Problem severity | 15% | Urgency, cost of inaction, current workarounds |
52| Market size | 12% | Sufficient demand for the target outcome |
53| Market timing | 10% | Clear “why now” and tailwinds |
54| Competitive moat | 12% | Defensibility over time |
55| Unit economics | 15% | Profit path (incl. payback and margins) |
56| Founder-market fit | 8% | Access, expertise, and execution capability |
57| Technical feasibility | 10% | Buildability, dependencies, constraints |
58| GTM clarity | 10% | ICP, channels, motion, first customers |
59| Risk profile | 8% | What can kill it and likelihood |
60
61**Verdict thresholds (default)**:
62- `80–100`: GO
63- `60–79`: CONDITIONAL (validate RAT first)
64- `40–59`: PIVOT
65- `<40`: NO-GO
66
67Deep scoring rubrics and calibration live in [validation-methodology.md](references/validation-methodology.md).
68
69## Evidence Rules
70
71- Strong evidence is behavioral commitment with cost (time, money, switching, access); weak evidence is opinions and hypotheticals.
72- Triangulate important claims across at least two sources (especially market sizing and competitor state).
73- Keep an evidence trail: link + capture month; separate “fact” vs “assumption”.
74
75## Validation Ladder (Default)
76
77| Step | Goal | Strong signal |
78|---|---|---|
79| Interviews | Validate the problem and context | Repeated pain with real workarounds and spend |
80| Smoke test | Validate demand | Qualified conversion with price shown |
81| Concierge/WoZ | Validate workflow value | Users complete the job and return |
82| Paid pilot | Validate willingness-to-pay | Paid, renewed, or expanded |
83
84## AI / Automation Notes (2026)
85
86If the idea depends on AI (agents, copilots, automation), validate these explicitly:
87
88- Data rights and access: can you legally and reliably access required data?
89- Reliability: define success metrics, failure modes, and human fallback; validate on real workflows.
90- Cost-to-serve: model inference + retrieval + human-in-the-loop costs in `assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md`.
91
92See [hypothesis-testing-guide.md](references/hypothesis-testing-guide.md) for AI-specific experiment patterns.
93
94## Integration Points
95
96### Receives From
97
98- [startup-review-mining](../startup-review-mining/SKILL.md) - Pain point evidence
99- [startup-trend-prediction](../startup-trend-prediction/SKILL.md) - Market timing inputs
100- [startup-competitive-analysis](../startup-competitive-analysis/SKILL.md) - Competitor landscape
101
102### Feeds Into
103
104- [router-startup](../router-startup/SKILL.md) - Startup decision routing
105- [product-management](../product-management/SKILL.md) - Validated requirements and roadmap inputs
106- [startup-business-models](../startup-business-models/SKILL.md) - Monetization and packaging decisions
107
108## Resources
109
110| Resource | Purpose |
111|---|---|
112| [validation-methodology.md](references/validation-methodology.md) | Scoring rubrics and calibration |
113| [hypothesis-testing-guide.md](references/hypothesis-testing-guide.md) | Experiment design and RAT workflows |
114| [market-sizing-patterns.md](references/market-sizing-patterns.md) | TAM/SAM/SOM methods and pitfalls |
115| [moat-assessment-framework.md](references/moat-assessment-framework.md) | Defensibility analysis |
116
117## Templates
118
119| Template | Purpose |
120|---|---|
121| [validation-scorecard.md](assets/validation-scorecard.md) | Full 9-dimension scoring |
122| [go-no-go-decision.md](assets/go-no-go-decision.md) | Decision memo format |
123| [hypothesis-canvas.md](assets/hypothesis-canvas.md) | Hypothesis definition |
124| [validation-experiment-planner.md](assets/validation-experiment-planner.md) | Experiment planning + thresholds |
125| [riskiest-assumption-test.md](assets/riskiest-assumption-test.md) | RAT identification and test design |
126| [market-sizing-worksheet.md](assets/market-sizing-worksheet.md) | Sizing worksheet |
127| [financial-modeling-calculator.md](assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md) | Runway + scenarios + unit economics |
128
129## Data
130
131| File | Purpose |
132|---|---|
133| [sources.json](data/sources.json) | Curated validation resources |
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