Strategic Bet

name: strategic-bet description: Create or update a strategic bet with explicit assumptions argument-hint: [bet name or area] or [update SB-2026-001]

Document Intelligence

This skill supports three modes: Create, Update, and Find.

Mode Detection

Threshold: ≥85% auto-proceed | 70-84% state assumption | <70% ask user

Mode Behaviors

CREATE: Generate complete new strategic bet using template below.

UPDATE:

1. Read existing bet (search if path not provided)
2. Preserve unchanged sections exactly
3. Update assumptions (validated/invalidated), metrics, status
4. Show diff summary: "Updated: [sections]. Unchanged: [sections]."
5. Consider: Update assumption status in context registry

FIND:

1. Search paths below AND context registry for bets
2. Present results: ID, title, status, owner, key assumptions
3. Ask: "Update one of these, or create new?"

Search Locations for Strategic Bets

• bets/
• strategy/bets/
• context/bets/
• strategy/

Formulate a Strategic Bet with explicit assumptions and success criteria.

Purpose

Strategic bets articulate what we believe will create value, why we believe it, and how we'll know if we're right.

Output Structure

# Strategic Bet: [Bet Name]

**Bet ID**: SB-[YYYY]-[NNN]
**Owner**: [Single accountable person]
**Date Formulated**: [Date]
**Status**: Proposed / Active / Validated / Invalidated / Pivoted
**Product**: [Product name - optional, for multi-product organizations]

## The Bet

[What we believe will create value - 1-2 clear sentences]

> "We bet that [doing X] for [customer segment] will result in [outcome] because [rationale]."

## Customer Insight (Principle #3)

**Who**: [Target customer segment]
**Pain**: [What problem they have]

### Customer Evidence
| Evidence Type | Source | Date | Key Finding |
|---------------|--------|------|-------------|
| [Interview/Survey/Usage/Support] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |
| [Type] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |
| [Type] | [Source] | [Date] | [Finding] |

**Evidence Strength**: Strong/Moderate/Weak/None
**Confidence Level**: Low / Medium / High

*If evidence is weak, document plan to strengthen before major commitment.*

## Market Dynamics

**Timing**: Why this bet makes sense now
- [Market trend 1]
- [Market trend 2]

**Competition**: How this positions us
- [Competitive dynamic]

**Window**: How long this opportunity exists
- [Timeline consideration]

## Business Intent

**Strategic Goal**: [Which company goal this serves]
**Revenue Potential**: [Expected revenue impact]
**Strategic Value**: [Non-revenue value - positioning, learning, etc.]

## Explicit Assumptions

| # | Assumption | Confidence | How We'll Validate | Validation Timeline |
|---|------------|------------|-------------------|---------------------|
| 1 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 2 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 3 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |
| 4 | [Assumption] | Low/Med/High | [Method] | [When] |

**Riskiest Assumption**: [Which assumption, if wrong, kills this bet]

## Opportunity Cost

**What we're NOT doing by choosing this bet:**
- [Alternative 1] - [What we give up]
- [Alternative 2] - [What we give up]

**Why this bet is worth the tradeoff:**
[Rationale]

## Success Criteria

| Metric | Baseline | Target | Timeframe | Measurement |
|--------|----------|--------|-----------|-------------|
| [Leading] | [Current] | [Target] | T+1 month | [How] |
| [Mid] | [Current] | [Target] | T+3 months | [How] |
| [Lagging] | [Current] | [Target] | T+6 months | [How] |

## Investment Required

**Resources**:
- Team: [Who/how many]
- Duration: [Expected timeline]
- Budget: [If applicable]

**Dependencies**:
- [Dependency 1]
- [Dependency 2]

## Scalability Consideration (Principle #8)

| Scale Level | Works? | What Changes | Investment Needed |
|-------------|--------|--------------|-------------------|
| Current (1x) | Yes | Baseline | Current |
| 2x | Yes/Partial/No | [What changes] | [Investment] |
| 10x | Yes/Partial/No | [What changes] | [Investment] |

**Scale Assumption**: [Key assumption about scale]
**Breaking Point**: [At what scale does this approach break?]

## Re-decision Points

| Checkpoint | Date | Criteria | Possible Actions |
|------------|------|----------|------------------|
| Early signal | [Date] | [What we look for] | Continue / Pivot / Stop |
| Mid-point | [Date] | [What we look for] | Double down / Maintain / Wind down |
| End | [Date] | [What we look for] | Scale / Iterate / Abandon |

## Pivot Options

If this bet doesn't work, potential pivots:
1. [Pivot option 1]
2. [Pivot option 2]

Instructions

1. Ask clarifying questions about the bet if context is unclear
2. Check prior context: Run /context-recall [topic] to find related decisions and existing bets
3. Check portfolio: Run /portfolio-status to understand current strategic priorities
4. Reference any strategy or market documents provided via @file syntax
5. Ensure assumptions are explicit and testable
6. Include clear opportunity cost analysis
7. Define specific re-decision points
8. Save in strategy/bets/ folder
9. Offer to create presentation version using /present

Context Integration

After generating the strategic bet:

1. Offer to save: Ask "Should I save this to the context registry? (/context-save)"
2. If yes, extract and save:
   • Bet ID, title, date, owner, status to context/bets/index.md
   • Add to context/portfolio/active-bets.md if status is Active
   • ALL explicit assumptions to context/assumptions/registry.md with validation methods
   • Full record to context/bets/[YYYY]/[SB-ID].md
3. Link to dependent decisions and related bets