Thesis Market Mapping

Thesis market mapping

When to use

Use this skill when you need to:

• Build an internal point of view on a sector (new thesis or coverage refresh)
• Produce a market map (companies + segmentation) that drives sourcing and diligence
• Turn "interesting" into "actionable" (who to meet, what to ignore, what to bet)

Inputs you should request (only if missing)

• Sector / theme and a tight wedge to start with (e.g., "AI eval tooling for regulated industries")
• Stage focus (pre-seed/seed/A/B+) and check size range
• Any existing notes, prior memos, or firm theses
• Time horizon (what "now" means: 6, 12, 24 months)

Outputs you must produce

1. Market map database (CSV/Sheet-style, not prose)
2. Thesis one-pager (max ~1 page) with falsifiable claims
3. Top 10 force-ranked list with:
   • One-sentence "must be true" per company
   • Wedge hypothesis
   • Why now
   • What would change your mind
4. Kill criteria (explicit signals that would cause you to abandon the thesis)
5. Contrarian hypotheses:
   • 3 reasons this thesis is right when others disagree
   • 3 reasons this market might be fake
6. Sourcing routing (who internally should see what, and why)

Recommended templates:

• assets/market-map.csv
• assets/thesis-one-pager.md
• assets/top-targets.md

Procedure

1) Set the aperture (do this first)

Write a 3-5 line problem statement:

• Who is the buyer?
• What job are they trying to get done?
• What is broken about the current workflow?
• What changed that makes a new approach possible now?

Then define the wedge:

• Narrow enough that you can know it better than the internet in 30-60 days.
• Broad enough that it can expand to a big market if you're right.

2) Create a segmentation taxonomy (avoid "misc")

Create categories that reflect how buyers buy, not just product features. Use 5-9 primary segments max. For each segment, add:

• ICP / buyer role
• Budget source (security, IT, product, compliance, etc.)
• Adoption trigger event (regulatory change, platform shift, cost curve, breach, etc.)
• "Why now" drivers

3) Populate the market map (treat it like a database)

Fill the table with:

• Company / product
• Wedge + ICP
• Pricing / GTM motion (PLG, sales-led, channel, services-assisted, etc.)
• Proof of pull (referenceable customers, OSS adoption, hiring, usage signals)
• Differentiation (one sentence)
• Switching costs / moat hypothesis
• Notable risks (one sentence)
• Investors / financing (if known)
• Status (meet / watch / pass)

Rules:

• Keep entries short; you're optimizing for scan speed.
• Record unknowns explicitly; don't guess.

4) Force-rank and write "must be true" claims

Pick the top 10 companies that matter and write:

• "This becomes huge if ______ is true."
• Evidence you have today (links, conversations, data)
• What would falsify it (what you'd need to see to stop believing)
• Fastest test to validate or kill (what's the 1-day test?)

Then write 3-7 "must be true" claims for the thesis overall, such as:

• Buyer behavior ("CISO will fund this from X budget because...")
• Distribution ("This category will be won by teams with...")
• Product leverage ("Model improvements reduce cost by...")

5) Write contrarian hypotheses and kill criteria

Contrarian hypotheses (why you might be right when others disagree):

• 3 reasons this thesis is correct that aren't consensus
• What do you believe that most investors in the space would disagree with?

Why this market might be fake (steelman the bear case):

• 3 reasons this market doesn't exist or won't work
• What would make you abandon this thesis entirely?

Kill criteria (explicit exit conditions):

• List 3-5 signals that would cause you to stop pursuing this thesis
• Examples: "If [buyer type] doesn't fund this from [budget], abandon." "If cycle time exceeds X months, abandon."

6) Identify archetypes and failure modes

For each segment, list the 2-4 most common failure modes:

• "Nice-to-have" that dies in procurement
• High integration cost with unclear ROI
• Incumbent bundles it "good enough"
• Founder misunderstands buyer / cycle time

This becomes your future screening rubric.

7) Convert the map into a sourcing plan

Create a weekly plan:

• 10 "new names" to investigate
• 5 outreach targets
• 3 operator calls (buyer-side truth)
• 1 deep dive (new sub-segment)

Deliverable: a 10-bullet "what changed this week" update.

Salesforce logging (optional but recommended)

If Salesforce is the system of record, log the map so the firm can route and measure work.

Option A (simple):

• Create a Salesforce Campaign called Thesis: <topic> (YYYY-MM) and add target companies/people as Campaign Members.

Option B (low-dependency):

• Create/update Leads for founder contacts and Accounts for companies.
• Store Thesis=<topic> in a tagging field if you have one; otherwise prepend it to Description.

If you need API workflows, use the salesforce-crm-ops skill.

Examples

• Input: "Map the AI code review / AI SDLC tooling market for seed deals."
• Output: market-map.csv with 120 companies, taxonomy, top 10 force-ranked targets with must-be-true + fastest test, 5 falsifiable claims, 3 contrarian hypotheses, 3 bear cases, kill criteria, weekly sourcing plan.

Edge cases

• If the wedge is too broad: propose 2 narrower wedges and proceed with the one that has the clearest buyer + budget.
• If you can't find buyers: switch to operator calls (the map is empty without buyer truth).