Capex Estimate Generation

Capex Estimate Generation

Workflow purpose

Turn a scope statement into a structured, line-item estimate tied to the capex library. Output feeds workflows/capital_project_intake_and_prioritization, workflows/bid_leveling_procurement_review, and workflows/budget_build.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "estimate this capex scope", "unit turn tier estimate", "amenity refresh estimate", "roof replacement estimate".
• Implicit: workflows/capital_project_intake_and_prioritization requests estimate; bid package prep; draw-review estimate scrub.
• Recurring: on demand.

Inputs (required / optional)

Outputs

Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage, market.

Process

1. Scope decomposition. Break scope into assemblies and line items; map to library.
2. Quantity take-off. Compute quantities per scope; include allowances per overlay.
3. Unit cost application. Apply library unit costs; adjust for labor and material references.
4. Escalation. Apply overlay escalator to target execution date.
5. Contingency. Apply overlay contingency by scope tier.
6. Assembly roll-up. Aggregate to assembly, project, and per-unit / per-sf.
7. Risk memo. Note assumption confidence, market sensitivities, schedule risks.
8. Confidence banner. References surfaced with as_of_date and status.

Metrics used

dev_cost_per_unit, dev_cost_per_gsf, dev_cost_per_nrsf, renovation_yield_on_cost (if yield is asked), capex_spend_vs_plan (feeder).

Reference files used

• reference/normalized/capex_line_items__{scope}.csv
• reference/normalized/labor_rates__{market}.csv
• reference/normalized/material_costs__{region}_residential.csv
• reference/normalized/construction_duration_assumptions__{region}.csv
• reference/derived/contingency_assumptions__{org}.csv

Escalation points

• Estimate magnitude outside overlay band: estimator -> construction_manager -> asset_manager.

Required approvals

None for the estimate itself (recommendation severity). Downstream approvals live in workflows/bid_leveling_procurement_review, workflows/change_order_review, etc.

Failure modes

1. Library without market adjustment. Fix: labor/material references mandatory.
2. No contingency. Fix: overlay contingency mandatory.
3. No escalation. Fix: escalator applied to target execution date.
4. Estimate without risk memo. Fix: risk memo mandatory.

Edge cases

• Custom scope (no library assembly): new line items flagged; note confidence low; propose library update via reference flow if systematic.
• Tenant-impact scope: add tenant communication allowance per overlay.
• Licensed trade with limited local market: surface market-specific risk.
• Phased scope crossing fiscal years: escalate by phase.

Example invocations

1. "Estimate the roof replacement scope for Ashford Park."
2. "Build the estimate for the Willow Creek unit renovation tier 2."
3. "Amenity refresh estimate for the South End portfolio common areas."

Example outputs

Output — Capex estimate (abridged, roof replacement Ashford Park)

Scope. Roof replacement per scope statement; decomposed to tear-off, underlayment, shingles, flashing, cleanup.

Line items. Quantities and unit costs from library; adjusted for labor market.

Roll-up. Per-assembly and per-unit totals.

Escalation. Applied to target execution date.

Contingency. Applied per overlay tier.

Risk memo. Material-cost volatility noted; labor availability confidence medium.

Confidence banner. capex_line_items__roofing@2026-03-31, status=starter. labor_rates__charlotte@2026-03-31, status=sample. contingency_assumptions@2026-03-31, status=starter.