Development Pipeline Tracking

Development Pipeline Tracking

Workflow purpose

Give development_lead, construction_lead, and asset_mgmt_director a single weekly view of the active development pipeline — from deal close through delivery — so that slip on any project surfaces against the portfolio baseline in the same week it happens.

This pack is a tracker. It never authorizes a rebaseline, a scope change, a CO, or a contingency pull. It flags, it aggregates, and it routes into the owning workflow. The workflow is intentionally read-heavy across three source systems (Dealpath for deal-side posture, Procore for construction state and commitments, Intacct for posted capex spend) and depends on the cross-system reconciliation posture declared in _core/stack_wave4/source_of_truth_matrix.md.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "weekly development pipeline", "dev pipeline tracker", "dev pipeline review", "critical-path slip this week", "what's slipping in construction", "development dashboard".
• Implicit: weekly development-lead cadence; Procore critical-path milestone slipped vs. baseline; Dealpath closed-deal handoff lag exceeds overlay tolerance (dp_handoff_dev_lag); commitment overdrawn check fires (pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn); capex spend-to-plan breaches overlay band; lease-up readiness deadline approaching for any project.
• Recurring: weekly per active pipeline (Friday morning / Monday morning per org convention).

Inputs (required / optional)

Outputs

Required context

Asset_class, segment, region (one or many), deal_lead (optional filter). Project grain rolls up to region + deal_lead. Axis project_id is optional (omit to get a pipeline-wide view; supply to get a single-project drill-down); when omitted, the workflow aggregates across all active development projects in the org overlay's scope.

Process

Step 1. Pipeline stage snapshot

Assemble stage buckets from Dealpath and Procore:

• sites_under_contract (Dealpath stage = under_contract, closing).
• sites_in_entitlement (Dealpath stage = ic_approved or funded AND development_project.entitlements_status = in_process).
• sites_in_design (Procore project exists, phase = design/preconstruction).
• sites_in_permitting (Procore project exists, permits_status pending).
• sites_in_construction_by_phase (Procore project phase in {mobilization, foundation, framing, mep_rough, drywall, finishes, punchlist, closeout}).

Source-of-truth: per source_of_truth_matrix.md, Dealpath is primary for deal and development_project (pre-handoff); Procore is primary for construction_project once the project executes. Surface any site stuck in transition (e.g., Dealpath says funded but Procore project not yet created).

Step 2. Schedule posture

For each active construction project:

• Compute schedule_variance_days (current_forecast_completion - baseline_completion).
• Compute milestone_slippage_rate (share of milestones where current_forecast_date > baseline_date).
• Compute critical_path_slip_days (proposed): slip restricted to critical_path_flag = true milestones.
• Flag any project whose critical-path slip exceeds the tolerance band (cite reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml).
• Attribute cause where observable: weather, trade delay, permit, material lead time, labor, owner decision, design. Hand off to workflows/schedule_risk_review for any project whose slip crosses the overlay rebaseline trigger.

Step 3. Cost posture

For each active construction project:

• Inherit cost_to_complete from the most recent workflows/cost_to_complete_review output. Do not recompute here.
• Compute contingency_remaining and contingency_burn_rate from Procore commitment register and Intacct posted spend.
• Compute change_orders_pct_of_contract (approved COs / original contract).
• Compute trade_buyout_variance where buyouts happened this quarter.
• Compute capex_spend_vs_plan (YTD). Flag any project with spend-to-plan breaching the overlay band without a change-order trail.
• Flag any project where contingency_burn_rate > 1 at current percent complete cost — route to workflows/cost_to_complete_review.

Step 4. Commitment exposure

Use Procore commitment register (per source_of_truth_matrix.md, Procore is primary for commitment; Intacct reconciles posted spend):

• Sum forward 12-month commitment_exposure_forward_dollars (proposed) across all active projects, grouped by region and by trade.
• For each commitment: check paid_to_date + retention_balance <= revised_contract_total + overdrawn_tolerance_band. Cite pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn on any breach; route to the runbook at reference/connectors/adapters/procore_construction/runbooks/procore_common_issues.md::commitment_overdrawn.
• List commitments with posting lag > reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml::co_posting_lag_band (Intacct has not posted within the lag window) — these are audit entries, not blockers.

Step 5. Change-order trend

For each project:

• 4-week and 12-week rolling count of approved COs; rolling dollars of approved COs.
• Pending COs aging past overlay threshold — flag.
• Categorize COs (owner_directed, design_error, site_condition, scope_clarification, unforeseen) per ChangeOrder.category. Surface any shift in mix (e.g., rising share of design_error COs triggers a design-team review conversation).

Step 6. Draw posture

For each project with a construction loan:

• draw_cycle_time trailing 90 days per draw (submitted -> funded).
• Open draws: submitted-not-approved, approved-not-funded, aging buckets.
• draw_burn_rate_vs_plan (proposed): (draw_amount_funded_ytd / draw_plan_ytd) where the lender's draw plan is available.
• Any draw where pc_recon_draw_approved_vs_cash_funded fails — route to workflows/draw_package_review for next submission cycle context.

Step 7. Contractor performance flag

Pull cross-project contractor performance scorecard (optional input). For each major GC / sub:

• Count of projects where they hold critical-path work.
• Rolling trade_buyout_variance and change_orders_pct_of_contract attributed to this contractor.
• Insurance expiry status (from Procore vendor records).
• Subcontractor-distress signals (lien filings, labor complaints, schedule misses across multiple projects) — if two+ projects show signals, flag as subcontractor_distress and route to the construction_manager queue.

Step 8. Delivery outlook & lease-up readiness

For projects in the last 180 days before expected TCO / certificate of occupancy:

• Current delivery forecast vs. baseline (cite schedule_variance_days).
• Gating items: final inspections, TCO documentation, marketing kickoff, model-unit readiness, staffing plan in place.
• cco_to_first_lease_days (proposed) — for already-delivered projects, the actual gap; for pre-delivery projects, the planned gap per lease-up plan.
• Hand off to workflows/lease_up_first_period for projects inside the lease-up window.

Step 9. Financing draw status

For each project:

• Lender calendar next 60 days: draw submission, funding, compliance certificate dates.
• Any draw submission tied to a blocker (insurance endorsement expiring, lien waiver gap) — route to workflows/draw_package_review.
• Equity-capital-call schedule forward 90 days.

Step 10. Reconciliation posture across source systems

Cite and surface the following cross-system reconciliation findings from the adapter contracts:

• dp_handoff_dev_lag (warning; dealpath-approved deal lacking procore project > dev_handoff_lag_threshold_days). Cite the rule id and the runbook at reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/runbooks/dealpath_common_issues.md::dev_handoff.
• pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn (blocker) — any hit.
• pc_recon_commitment_vs_posted_spend (tolerance band drift).
• pc_recon_co_approved_vs_invoice_posted (CO posting lag).
• pc_recon_draw_approved_vs_cash_funded (draw posting lag).
• pc_recon_dev_deal_to_procore_project (deal-to-project handoff).

Any blocker puts the affected project into low_confidence on the dashboard and the reconciliation memo lists the exception with runbook pointer.

Step 11. Regional and deal-lead rollup

Group the project-level views by:

• Region: sum counts and forward exposure by region; highlight outlier regions.
• Deal_lead: count of open projects per deal_lead; sum forward exposure; rolling slip-days average per deal_lead.

Step 12. Top-3 watch items

Narrative synthesis: name the three most consequential pipeline watch items this week. Each watch item cites: the project, the metric slug, the tolerance band reference, the owning workflow, and the proposed next action.

Step 13. Confidence banner

Every reference surfaced with as_of_date and status. Any sample-tagged reference is explicit. Cross-system reconciliation findings cited by rule id.

Decision points and branches

• Critical-path slip > overlay tolerance on any project: route to workflows/schedule_risk_review. Do not rebaseline here.
• Contingency_burn_rate > 1 at current percent-complete: route to workflows/cost_to_complete_review.
• Commitment overdrawn: flag as blocker; hand off to Procore runbook; do not approve any new draw on that project until resolved.
• Dealpath-to-Procore handoff lag > overlay: route to development_manager with dealpath runbook pointer.
• Any project approaches first-lease milestone: hand off to workflows/lease_up_first_period.
• Any project approaches a lender calendar draw: hand off to workflows/draw_package_review.

Metrics used

See frontmatter. Canonical metrics are inherited from workflows/schedule_risk_review, workflows/cost_to_complete_review, and workflows/draw_package_review. The proposed metrics (critical_path_slip_days, draw_burn_rate_vs_plan, cco_to_first_lease_days, handoff_lag_dealpath_to_procore, commitment_exposure_forward_dollars) are aggregations required by the pipeline-tracking use case; formal promotion into _core/metrics.md happens in a follow-up canonical change-control cycle.

Reference files used

• reference/connectors/_core/stack_wave4/source_of_truth_matrix.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/normalized_contract.yaml
• reference/connectors/adapters/dealpath_deal_pipeline/reconciliation_rules.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/procore_construction/reconciliation_checks.yaml
• reference/connectors/adapters/procore_construction/runbooks/procore_common_issues.md
• reference/connectors/adapters/sage_intacct_gl/reconciliation_rules.md
• reference/connectors/master_data/dev_project_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/connectors/master_data/capex_project_crosswalk.yaml
• reference/normalized/construction_duration_assumptions__{region}.csv
• reference/normalized/schemas/reconciliation_tolerance_band.yaml
• reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv
• reference/derived/contingency_assumptions__{org}.csv

Escalation points

• Critical-path slip above tolerance: CM -> DM -> AM -> executive. Route to workflows/schedule_risk_review.
• Commitment overdrawn (cite pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn): CM + AM; project draws held until resolved.
• Dealpath-to-Procore handoff lag (cite dp_handoff_dev_lag): DM -> AM.
• Contingency exhaustion risk: CM + AM; route to workflows/cost_to_complete_review.
• Weather delay beyond overlay tolerance: CM -> AM.
• Subcontractor distress pattern (>= 2 projects): CM -> AM -> legal_and_risk.

Required approvals

None for the tracker itself (informational / recommendation severity). Downstream owning workflows carry their own approval gates (rebaseline -> row per overlay; capex reallocation -> row per overlay; draw final submission -> row 14; CO approval -> row 10 / 11).

Failure modes

1. Treating Dealpath deal stage as project state. Fix: stage semantics are in Dealpath adapter's normalized_contract.yaml; project state is in Procore. Surface both where relevant; never collapse.
2. Computing critical-path slip without the critical_path_flag. Fix: critical_path_slip_days (proposed) is restricted to milestones with critical_path_flag = true. Document the filter in output.
3. Commitment overdrawn silently accepted because Procore reconciliation view not surfaced. Fix: pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn is an explicit check every run; any hit appears as a blocker on the dashboard.
4. Dealpath closed deal without Procore project not flagged. Fix: dp_handoff_dev_lag is cited every run; rule id and threshold live in the dealpath adapter dq_rules.
5. Inheriting CTC values from a stale cost-to-complete review. Fix: each project's CTC carries its own as_of_date; stale CTCs are annotated.
6. Regional / deal-lead rollup drawn without the axis filter. Fix: rollup views are explicit filters; not the default view.
7. Draw burn-rate computed without the lender's draw plan. Fix: draw_burn_rate_vs_plan is skipped for projects without a lender plan and annotated as "no_lender_plan" in the dashboard.
8. Sample overlay treated as authoritative. Fix: confidence banner surfaces sample-tag explicitly.

Edge cases

• Weather delay. Overlay-driven expected-delay allowance (per construction_duration_assumptions__{region}.csv). Variance beyond overlay is the flag. Regional rollup groups weather-attributable slip separately from other slip so the narrative does not conflate.
• Subcontractor bankruptcy. Two-plus projects affected: mark as subcontractor_distress; trigger legal_and_risk review. A single affected project routes through workflows/schedule_risk_review per normal; the pipeline tracker only flags the cross-project pattern.
• Baseline reset mid-quarter. A rebaseline approved via workflows/schedule_risk_review changes the project's current baseline. This tracker preserves prior baseline in the baseline_reset_history section of the narrative and clearly notes the rebaseline date; schedule_variance_days uses the current approved baseline for comparison but the memo surfaces both to prevent silent drift across weekly runs.
• Deal closed but not yet funded. Dealpath stage = closed, status = awaiting funding shows in sites_under_contract with a sub-tag. Do not yet create a Procore project expectation; the handoff clock starts at funding.
• Capex project in Procore but unmapped in Intacct. Flag as a blocker per source-of-truth matrix. Cost posture for that project is unreconciled; dashboard annotates no_intacct_mapping.
• Pending CO aging past overlay. Dashboard lists; does not execute. Routes to workflows/change_order_review.
• TCO reached but not CCO. Soft-cost category shift per loan overlay; cco_to_first_lease_days (proposed) calculation starts from CCO.

Example invocations

1. "Run the weekly development pipeline tracker. Flag critical-path slip beyond tolerance."
2. "Pipeline dashboard by region for the Southeast portfolio."
3. "What's the deal-lead exposure for Alex this week? Include cost and schedule posture on each project."
4. "Check commitment overdrawn status across all active construction projects."
5. "Forward 12-month commitment exposure by trade."

Example outputs

Output — Weekly pipeline tracker (abridged, week ending 2026-04-10)

Pipeline stage summary.

Schedule posture. Portfolio milestone_slippage_rate within band. Three projects with schedule_variance_days outside band; one (Willow Creek) on critical path with critical_path_slip_days (proposed) at overlay tolerance ceiling. Hand off triggered to workflows/schedule_risk_review.

Cost posture. Portfolio capex_spend_vs_plan within band. Two projects show contingency_burn_rate approaching 1.0 at percent-complete below 50%. Hand off triggered to workflows/cost_to_complete_review. Portfolio change_orders_pct_of_contract within overlay band; one project (Riverbend) at edge.

Commitment exposure. Forward 12-month commitment_exposure_forward_dollars (proposed) aggregated. Two commitments failed pc_recon_commitment_overdrawn on Riverbend sitework contract — runbook pointer surfaced. Draws on Riverbend held until resolved.

Draw posture. Portfolio draw_cycle_time trailing within band. One project with open draw approved-not-funded past overlay (lender callback). Routed to workflows/draw_package_review.

Delivery outlook. One project (South Fork) in the last 180 days before expected TCO. Gating items: model-unit finishes, staffing plan signed. Hand off to workflows/lease_up_first_period queued for next week.

Reconciliation posture. dp_handoff_dev_lag warning on one closed deal (Atlantic Grove) — procore project not yet created, 7 business days since funding; below blocker threshold but outside tolerance. Development_manager notified.

Regional / deal-lead rollup. Southeast carries 6 of 11 active construction projects. Alex's book carries 3 projects; weighted schedule slip within band.

Top-3 watch items.

1. Willow Creek critical-path slip — schedule_risk_review triggered.
2. Riverbend commitment overdrawn — draws held; runbook triggered.
3. Atlantic Grove handoff lag — procore project creation expected within 3 business days.

Confidence banner.

References: dev_project_crosswalk@2026-04-08 (starter),
construction_duration_assumptions__southeast@2026-03-31 (starter),
reconciliation_tolerance_band@2026-03-31 (sample),
contingency_assumptions__{org}@2026-03-31 (starter).
Source-of-truth matrix: wave_4_authoritative.
Proposed metrics flagged: critical_path_slip_days, draw_burn_rate_vs_plan,
cco_to_first_lease_days, handoff_lag_dealpath_to_procore,
commitment_exposure_forward_dollars.