mariourquia Reforecast
Workflow purpose
Take the latest actuals, combine with forward assumptions, and produce a reforecast that shows how year-end is likely to land vs. budget and prior forecast. Preserve assumption trail. Cite every revision.
Trigger conditions
- Explicit: "reforecast Q2", "update forecast", "year-end landing", "roll forecast through December".
- Implicit: as-of month closes; material variance vs. prior forecast; market-side event (rent comp update, insurance renewal, tax reassessment).
- Recurring: per org overlay calendar (often monthly or quarterly).
Inputs (required / optional)
| Input | Type | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actuals through asof | table | required | GL closed through month |
| Prior forecast | table | required | for delta tracking |
| Budget | table | required | anchor |
| Rent roll snapshot | table | required | for forward revenue |
| Assumption references | csv / yaml | required | all budget_build refs |
| Change basis notes | memo | optional | any revision > overlay materiality |
Outputs
| Output | Type | Shape |
|---|---|---|
| Reforecast by line item | table | monthly through year end |
| NOI + margin + covenant view | kpi_review |
budget vs. prior forecast vs. new forecast |
| Delta commentary | memo |
revisions and basis |
| Forecast accuracy view | kpi_review |
forecast_accuracy trailing 6 |
| Owner submission draft | operating_review |
if applicable |
Required context
Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage, management_mode, market.
Process
- Snapshot actuals through asof. Confirm GL close; flag any open items.
- Compute variance to budget (MTD, YTD, RTG).
revenue_variance_to_budget,expense_variance_to_budget. Classify drivers. - Forward revenue. Roll forward leases; apply current market reference and concession posture; revise if actuals show drift.
- Forward expense. Apply escalators and assumptions; any revision cites basis (overlay update, re-bid, known scope change).
- Recompute NOI, margin, DSCR, DY.
- Forecast accuracy calibration. Compute trailing
forecast_accuracy; surface systematic bias. - Sensitivity. Overlay stress cases on forward months.
- Comparison table. Budget vs. prior forecast vs. new forecast.
- Submission path. Owner or lender final submission opens
approval_requestrow 14 / 15 / 16. - Confidence banner. All reference
as_of_dateandstatustags surfaced.
Metrics used
noi, noi_margin, forecast_accuracy, revenue_variance_to_budget, expense_variance_to_budget, economic_occupancy, collections_rate, bad_debt_rate, concession_rate, dscr, debt_yield, budget_attainment.
Reference files used
Same as budget_build (assumption inheritance).
Escalation points
- Final submission: row 14 (lender), 15 / 16 (LP / board).
- Assumption revision above overlay materiality: asset_manager sign-off.
Required approvals
- Final forecast submission (row 14 / 15 / 16).
Failure modes
- Silent assumption change. Fix: every revision cites basis; change basis memo required above materiality.
- Not recalibrating when
forecast_accuracyshows bias. Fix: calibration is a step. - Forward revenue built on stale market reference. Fix: surface staleness; if > overlay threshold, refresh first via
workflows/market_rent_refresh. - Submitting final to lender without approval. Fix: row 14 gate.
Edge cases
- Property mid-renovation: split classic and renovated unit lines; distinct assumptions.
- Debt refi during remaining year: sensitivity on DSCR / DY post-refi; flag timing uncertainty.
- Insurance renewal pending: hold assumption at current rate with sensitivity; cite pending renewal.
- Tax reassessment filed: show appeal scenario alongside base.
- Lease-up still active: stabilization pace remains anchor; reforecast tied to
stabilization_pace_vs_plan.
Example invocations
- "Reforecast Ashford Park through year end using March actuals."
- "How is Willow Creek landing vs. budget this year?"
- "Build the quarterly reforecast for the South End portfolio."
Example outputs
Output — Reforecast summary (abridged, Ashford Park, asof 2026-03)
Actuals through March. Revenue within band vs. budget; expenses showing utilities drift per seasonal pattern.
Forward revenue. Roll-forward applied; market reference refreshed 2026-03-31; concessions tracking overlay.
Forward expense. Utilities assumption revised with basis memo; insurance held at current rate pending renewal.
Year-end landing. NOI within band of budget; noi_margin within overlay target; dscr and debt_yield meet covenants.
Forecast accuracy. Trailing 6 months within overlay band.
Submission. Owner draft prepared; approval_request row 15 opened.
Confidence banner. Assumption references carry as_of_date and status. Change basis memo attached for utilities revision.