Renewal and Retention

Renewal and Retention

Workflow purpose

Turn the expiring-lease population into a priced renewal plan that (1) offers every resident a renewal inside the overlay's lead-time window, (2) prices each offer using market_to_lease_gap and the resident's prior effective rent, (3) routes any offer outside policy for approval before send, (4) draft-produces resident communications for review, and (5) tracks acceptance through to executed renewal with a loop back to retention-NPV logic when refusals cluster.

Trigger conditions

• Explicit: "build renewal strategy", "renewal plan for June", "price renewals for Ashford Park", "retention plan".
• Implicit: lease with end_date within renewal_offer_lead_time and no renewal_offered event; renewal_offer_rate below target band; renewal_acceptance_rate trend declining over trailing 90 days.
• Recurring: monthly, one calendar-window ahead (e.g., April build for July expirations) at property grain.

Inputs (required / optional)

Outputs

Required context

Asset_class, segment, form_factor, lifecycle_stage, management_mode, market, role. The workflow refuses to price without a market rent reference; if absent, routes to workflows/market_rent_refresh first.

Process

1. Pull expiring-lease population. Include leases with end_date within the overlay's renewal_offer_lead_time. Exclude transfers (same household, new unit — handled separately). Annotate residents with tenure, payment record flag (from ledger if provided), and unit turn scope tag (classic vs. renovated).
2. Compute market rent per unit. Use reference/normalized/market_rents__{market}_mf.csv with submarket and unit_type keys. Compute market_to_lease_gap per lease and the property's weighted loss_to_lease.
3. Segment into tiers (decision point).
   • Tier A: in-place effective rent > market (negative market_to_lease_gap). Default offer: flat or overlay-defined decrease to retain; case-by-case concession review only.
   • Tier B: in-place rent within overlay's band of market. Default offer: median overlay renewal uplift.
   • Tier C: in-place rent < market by more than overlay's threshold. Default offer: closer-to-market uplift, with a short-term option for negotiation room.
   • Tier D (flag only): payment-record flag, lease-compliance flag, or non-renewal signal from ops. These are not priced in this workflow; they route to the PM for human decision and, if a non-renewal is contemplated, approval gate row 1 opens when jurisdiction treats non-renewal as notice.
4. Check every offer against policy bands. Any offer whose uplift falls outside the overlay's renewal uplift band requires approval_request row 13. Any offer with a concession exceeds policy also requires row 13. Both open automatically; the workflow does not send.
5. Fair-housing guardrail scan. Scan for systematic differential pricing by unit cluster that correlates with protected-class proxies (unit size, building location). Surface statistical outliers for regional review; never propose corrective pricing on a protected-class basis.
6. Acceptance estimation. Compute expected renewal_acceptance_rate by tier using overlay bands and the property's trailing 90-day baseline. Express downside: if Tier B refusal rate rises X points, expected turnover_rate, average_days_vacant, and blended_lease_trade_out shift; show the sensitivity.
7. Retention-NPV check (decision point).
   • If Tier C refusal case would produce a weighted turn cost + vacancy + new-lease trade-out loss that exceeds the dollar value of the accepted uplift, the workflow proposes a softer Tier C offer inside policy before recommending the stretch offer.
   • If the softer offer is still refused on historical data, flag the NPV gap and route to regional_manager for a human call; do not resolve autonomously.
8. Draft communication set. Produce per-lease renewal letters with draft_for_review banner. Mark legal_review_required on any letter whose jurisdiction treats renewal notice (or rent-increase notice) as statutory. Include a portal-message variant and an email variant.
9. Approval routing. Bundle every offer requiring approval_request row 13 into a single approval packet for the regional_manager, with per-lease rationale and sensitivity numbers. Executor does not send until approvals return approved.
10. Acceptance tracking. Produce a follow-up checklist: offer sent -> response due -> second nudge window -> non-renewal decision date. Include the PM's response SLA.
11. Confidence banner. Surface reference as_of_date and status tags. Note that jurisdiction-specific rules are overlay-driven.

Metrics used

renewal_offer_rate, renewal_acceptance_rate, rent_growth_renewal, renewal_rent_delta_dollars, blended_lease_trade_out, market_to_lease_gap, loss_to_lease, concession_rate, turnover_rate, average_days_vacant.

Reference files used

• reference/normalized/market_rents__{market}_mf.csv
• reference/normalized/concession_benchmarks__{market}_mf.csv
• reference/derived/role_kpi_targets.csv
• reference/derived/renewal_uplift_bands__middle_market.csv
• reference/normalized/approval_threshold_defaults.csv
• overlays/segments/middle_market/service_standards.md

Escalation points

• Any offer above policy uplift band -> approval_request row 13.
• Any concession above policy -> approval_request row 13.
• Non-renewal contemplated where jurisdiction treats non-renewal as statutory notice -> approval_request row 1.
• Fair-housing disparity signal -> approval_request row 3.

Required approvals

• Concession above policy (row 13).
• Non-standard payment plan attached to a renewal (row 13).
• Jurisdictional non-renewal notice (row 1 if statutory).

Failure modes

1. Blanket concessions to hit acceptance rate. Fix: every concession is per-lease and routes above policy.
2. Pricing on last quarter's market. Fix: market rent reference is required; stale references (> overlay threshold) force a workflows/market_rent_refresh before the workflow runs.
3. Sending letters that are statutory notices without legal review. Fix: legal_review_required banner mandatory in jurisdictions that treat renewal notice as notice.
4. Using payment-history flags as a screening proxy. Fix: ledger data is only used in NPV math and PM handoff, not as a pricing input.
5. Over-indexing on acceptance rate, ignoring blended_lease_trade_out. Fix: report acceptance and trade-out together; tier breakouts show the trade-off.
6. Silent sample-data usage. Fix: confidence banner surfaces status tags; sample rows never presented as operating fact.

Edge cases

• Short-term lease-up property: use a tighter uplift band (lease-up overlay) and flag when renewal uplift would undermine stabilization pace.
• Renovation unit recently delivered: renewal pricing must reflect renovation unit type; exclude pre-renovation leases from benchmarking.
• Resident in active workout or partial payment plan: route to PM; renewal offer conditional on plan resolution.
• Notice already filed (non-renewal in process): exclude from renewal plan; appears in workflows/move_out_administration instead.
• Very small expiring cohort (< overlay minimum): run the plan but annotate low-sample confidence.

Example invocations

1. "Build the June renewal plan for Ashford Park, 28 expirations. Stay inside policy on concessions."
2. "Retention is softening in Willow Creek. Produce a renewal memo with tiering and sensitivity, flag any NPV gaps."
3. "Price renewal offers for the 14 leases expiring August at Riverbend. Draft the resident letters and route anything above policy."

Example outputs

Output — Renewal plan (abridged, Ashford Park, 28 leases expiring 2026-06)

Summary. 28 expirations segmented A / B / C / D. Weighted market_to_lease_gap at property: within band. Expected renewal_acceptance_rate consistent with trailing 90-day baseline.

Segmentation.

• Tier A (8 leases): in-place > market. Proposed offer: flat with explicit decline option; no concession proposed.
• Tier B (13 leases): in-place within band of market. Proposed offer: median overlay renewal uplift; no concession.
• Tier C (5 leases): in-place < market by more than overlay threshold. Proposed offer: closer-to-market; short-term option as counter.
• Tier D (2 leases): payment-flag / compliance-flag. Handed to PM for decision; not priced here.

Approvals. No Tier B / C offers outside band. Two Tier A cases carry an overlay-permitted minor decrease; within policy. Zero approval_request row 13 opened.

Communications. 28 resident letters drafted with draft_for_review; 0 marked legal_review_required (jurisdiction overlay: Charlotte does not treat renewal notice as statutory). Portal-message variant produced for each.

Sensitivity. If Tier B acceptance falls 5 points vs. baseline, blended_lease_trade_out softens and expected incremental vacancy drives turn cost and lost rent per the reference library; memo shows the dollar impact.

Confidence banner. market_rents__charlotte_mf@as_of=2026-03-31, status=sample. renewal_uplift_bands__middle_market@as_of=2026-03-31, status=starter.