Cashflow Projection

Cashflow Projection

Models business-level risk before it arrives: income vs. outgoings, break-even, and runway over the next 90 days.

Steps

0. Load business context

Read /media/data/Dropbox/Work/Admin/Financial/Accounting/aletheia-codex.md before anything else. This is the authoritative record of account topology, money flow, and operating conventions. Use it to interpret which accounts obligations come from and how income is routed.

1. Read the financial snapshot

Read /media/data/Dropbox/Work/Admin/Financial/Accounting/accounts.json. If more than 24 hours old, run python3 studio/collectors/gnucash_collector.py to refresh.

Key fields:

• total_eur — current bank balance
• upcoming_30d — bills due in the next 30 days
• upcoming_30d_total — total obligations next 30 days
• balance_after_30d — cash after 30-day obligations
• monthly_pl_recent — last 3 months income/expenses/net
• breakeven_allin — €4,115/month (all costs + owner's draw)
• fixed_costs — €717.38/month

2. Read the pipeline

Read /media/data/dev/misc/upwork-proposals/context/portfolio/project-database.csv. Identify active projects (no End Date or End Date in the future). For each, note expected invoice amount and approximate timing.

Read accounts.json's harvest.invoices field for outstanding (unpaid) invoices (sourced live from Harvest, not a local log). If harvest.configured is false or the field is missing, note that Harvest isn't wired up rather than silently treating it as zero outstanding invoices.

3. Build the 90-day projection

Model three months from today. For each month:

• Expected income: invoices likely to be paid + new project starts
• Fixed costs: €717.38 + autónomo quota €300 = €1,017.38/month
• Variable costs: any known one-off expenses

4. Flag risks

• Break-even risk: any month where expected income < €4,115
• Late-payment risk: project >3 months with no interim milestone payment
• Capacity conflict: more than 2 concurrent projects at full capacity
• Runway: how many months of fixed costs remain if no new income arrives

5. Output

Return the projection table and a 2–3 bullet risk summary. Save to /media/data/Dropbox/Work/Admin/Financial/Accounting/cashflow-{YYYY-MM}.md.

Be direct. If month 2 looks thin, say so.