Industry Forces

是什么

Five Forces（五力模型）帮你看清一个行业到底"好不好赚钱"，把竞争、议价、替代、新进入者五种压力放在一张图上，让你在进入新市场或调整战略前，先看清这条赛道的天花板。

怎么用

1. 先定清楚分析的行业边界和地理范围，"中国" 和 "中国一线城市" 是两条完全不同的赛道。
2. 对每一力列出 3–5 条具体压力点，要能说出谁、对谁、施加了什么压力。
3. 给每一力打分（低/中/高），并写出关键证据，避免凭印象拍。
4. 综合五力得出行业吸引力判断，并对应到自家公司的相对位置。
5. 把判断落到战略动作：是否值得进入、如何提高自身议价、如何降低替代威胁。

架构图

flowchart LR
  A[行业与边界定义] --> B[五力扫描]
  B --> C[现有竞争]
  B --> D[供应商议价]
  B --> E[买方议价]
  B --> F[替代品威胁]
  B --> G[新进入者]
  C --> H[行业吸引力判断]
  D --> H
  E --> H
  F --> H
  G --> H
  H --> I[战略动作选择]

Five Forces

Metadata

• Name: industry-forces
• Description: Perform a Five Forces analysis evaluating competitive rivalry, supplier power, buyer power, threat of substitutes, and threat of new entrants.
• Triggers: Industry Structure five forces, competitive forces, industry analysis, market forces, competitive dynamics

Instructions

You are a competitive strategist conducting a Five Forces analysis for $ARGUMENTS.

Your task is to evaluate the structural attractiveness of an industry and identify the competitive dynamics that will determine profitability.

Input Requirements

• Industry or market definition
• Current competitors and competitive positioning
• Supplier and customer landscape
• Potential substitutes and new entrants
• Product or service specifics

Five Forces Framework

1. Competitive Rivalry (How intense is competition?)

The degree to which companies compete directly for market share and customers.

High Rivalry When:

• Many competitors of similar size and strength
• Slow industry growth (zero-sum competition)
• Low product differentiation (commoditized)
• High fixed costs (pressure to maintain volume)
• Exit barriers are high (expensive to leave)
• Price competition is intense
• Rivals have diverse strategies and goals
• Emotional or strategic commitments keep rivals fighting

Low Rivalry When:

• Few competitors
• High growth market
• High differentiation (less price-sensitive)
• Low fixed costs
• Low switching costs for competitors
• Industry leader has clear dominance
• Rivals are cooperative or have compatible goals

Strategic Implications:

• Assess competitive positioning and differentiation
• Define defensible competitive advantages
• Monitor competitor moves and market consolidation
• Invest in differentiation or cost leadership

2. Supplier Power (How much power do suppliers have?)

The ability of suppliers to increase prices or reduce quality, affecting your profitability.

High Supplier Power When:

• Few suppliers or concentrated supplier base
• Switching costs are high (changing suppliers is expensive)
• Backward integration threat (suppliers become competitors)
• Suppliers' product is critical or unique
• Suppliers have strong bargaining position
• No substitutes for supplier offerings
• Suppliers sell to many industries (less dependent on you)

Low Supplier Power When:

• Many suppliers available
• Low switching costs
• Suppliers depend on your business
• Commodity products (interchangeable suppliers)
• Threat of forward integration (you become your own supplier)
• Available substitutes for supplier offerings
• You have significant bargaining leverage

Strategic Implications:

• Diversify supplier base to reduce dependency
• Build strong supplier relationships
• Consider vertical integration or alternatives
• Negotiate long-term contracts with favorable terms
• Invest in suppliers' success (partnerships)

3. Buyer Power (How much power do customers have?)

The ability of customers to negotiate lower prices or demand higher quality, affecting your margin.

High Buyer Power When:

• Few large customers (concentrated demand)
• Buyers switch easily and often (low switching costs)
• Backwards integration threat (customers become competitors)
• Product is undifferentiated (commoditized)
• Buyers have price sensitivity or tight budgets
• Buyers have full information about alternatives
• Customers can bypass you entirely

Low Buyer Power When:

• Many fragmented customers
• High switching costs (lock-in, integration, training)
• High product differentiation (fewer alternatives)
• Customers depend on your product
• You have strong brand or reputation
• Switching to alternatives involves risk
• Customers lack information about alternatives

Strategic Implications:

• Build strong customer relationships and loyalty
• Create switching costs through integration
• Invest in brand and differentiation
• Develop customer success programs
• Create network effects or communities
• Segment customers by willingness to pay

4. Threat of Substitutes (Are there alternative solutions?)

The risk that customers will switch to alternative products that solve the same problem.

High Threat When:

• Good substitutes exist and are easily accessible
• Substitutes have similar performance or better value
• Switching costs to substitutes are low
• Customers are willing to try alternatives
• Substitutes are improving faster than your product
• Price-to-performance of substitutes is attractive
• Substitute technology is disruptive or emerging

Low Threat When:

• No good substitutes exist
• Substitutes are more expensive or inferior
• Switching costs are high
• Your product is deeply integrated into customer workflows
• Customer preference and loyalty are strong
• Barrier to substitute entry are high
• Your product solves the problem uniquely

Strategic Implications:

• Monitor emerging substitutes and disruptive technologies
• Build customer stickiness through integration and loyalty
• Invest in product innovation and improvement
• Create switching costs through ecosystem or community
• Diversify into adjacent or complementary products
• Defend through brand, service, or convenience

5. Threat of New Entrants (Can new competitors easily enter?)

The risk that new competitors will enter the market and capture share.

High Threat When:

• Low barriers to entry (capital, expertise, licensing)
• Attractive industry margins and growth
• Incumbents are vulnerable or complacent
• Distribution or channel access is available
• Economies of scale are limited
• Network effects are weak or absent
• Regulation is permissive
• New technologies enable disruption

Low Threat When:

• High barriers to entry (capital, IP, expertise, relationships)
• Entrenched incumbents with scale advantages
• Strong network effects or switching costs
• Brand loyalty is high
• Regulatory or licensing barriers exist
• Economies of scale create cost advantage
• Control of critical resources or distribution
• Retaliation by incumbents is credible

Strategic Implications:

• Build defensible barriers (IP, brand, network effects)
• Establish cost leadership and scale advantages
• Create switching costs and customer lock-in
• Invest in brand and customer relationships
• Monitor startups and disruptors in your space
• Build alliances and control key resources

Output Process

1. Assess each of the five forces (High, Medium, Low)
2. Rate industry attractiveness (High rivalry + strong forces = less attractive)
3. For each force, identify:
   • Current state and trend (getting stronger/weaker)
   • Key players or dynamics
   • Implications for profitability
4. Prioritize the 2-3 forces most critical to your strategy
5. Develop strategic responses:
   • How can we reduce threat of high-power forces?
   • How can we leverage weak forces for advantage?
6. Identify competitive positioning opportunities
7. Create strategic initiatives aligned with force analysis

Industry Attractiveness

• Attractive: Low rivalry, weak supplier/buyer power, few substitutes, high entry barriers
• Unattractive: High rivalry, strong supplier/buyer power, many substitutes, low entry barriers
• Moderate: Mixed dynamics requiring strategic differentiation

Notes

• No industry is universally attractive or unattractive; position matters
• Same industry can be attractive for some companies, unattractive for others
• Forces change over time; re-assess as market evolves
• Use Five Forces with SWOT and PESTLE for comprehensive analysis
• Strategy should directly address the highest-force threats

Further Reading

• The Product Management Frameworks Compendium + Templates