Metrics Review
When to use
Use this when you have a dashboard, data export, or weekly number and need to know what actually changed, why it matters, and what to do, rather than reciting figures back to leadership.
Not for: building the instrumentation or data pipeline, running a controlled experiment analysis (that needs statistical rigor and a pre-registered hypothesis), or defining a north-star metric from scratch. If the data window or definitions are untrustworthy, fix that first.
Method
- Anchor on the goal. Identify the north-star metric tied to the outcome, and separate supporting metrics from guardrails.
- Establish baseline and trend: compare vs prior period, same period last cycle, and target. Report direction, magnitude, and whether the move is outside normal noise. Decision point: if it is within noise, say so and stop, do not manufacture a story.
- Decompose the movement by segment, cohort, surface, or funnel step. Decision point: if the top line is flat, still decompose, opposing sub-trends often cancel out.
- Form a hypothesis per notable move, tying it to a known release, seasonality, or external event. Label as hypothesis unless you have a clean before/after.
- Rank insights by impact x confidence; drop the interesting-but-not-actionable.
- Recommend concrete steps: investigate, ship, or hold, each with an owner and expected effect.
Example
Activation flat at 42% week-over-week. Decomposing by signup source: organic rose 38%→45% while paid fell 46%→39%, cancelling out. Hypothesis: last week's paid campaign drove low-intent traffic (ties to the Tuesday ad launch). Action: pause the underperforming ad set and re-check activation next week (owner: growth).
Pitfalls
- Reporting a delta without a baseline, so nobody can tell if it is good or noise.
- Stating causation ("the redesign lifted retention") without a clean before/after or control.
- Drowning the headline in twenty secondary metrics; leadership needs the one thing that matters first.
- Ending with insights but no owned action, leaving the review as trivia.
Output format
# Metrics Review: [product/area] — window [start–end]
Headline: the one thing leadership must know.
## Metric table
| Metric | Value | Δ vs prior | Δ vs target | Trend |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
## Key movements
- [movement] → likely driver [hypothesis if unproven]
## Watch list
- [metric trending toward trouble]
## Recommended actions
- [investigate/ship/hold] — owner — expected effect
Data caveats: [quality/completeness notes]
1---2name: pm-metrics-review3description: Turn a dashboard or data export into a decision-grade metrics review — trend, decomposition, ranked insights, and owned next steps, not restated numbers.4---56# Metrics Review78## When to use9Use this when you have a dashboard, data export, or weekly number and need to know what actually changed, why it matters, and what to do, rather than reciting figures back to leadership.1011**Not for:** building the instrumentation or data pipeline, running a controlled experiment analysis (that needs statistical rigor and a pre-registered hypothesis), or defining a north-star metric from scratch. If the data window or definitions are untrustworthy, fix that first.1213## Method141. Anchor on the goal. Identify the north-star metric tied to the outcome, and separate supporting metrics from guardrails.152. Establish baseline and trend: compare vs prior period, same period last cycle, and target. Report direction, magnitude, and whether the move is outside normal noise. **Decision point:** if it is within noise, say so and stop, do not manufacture a story.163. Decompose the movement by segment, cohort, surface, or funnel step. **Decision point:** if the top line is flat, still decompose, opposing sub-trends often cancel out.174. Form a hypothesis per notable move, tying it to a known release, seasonality, or external event. Label as hypothesis unless you have a clean before/after.185. Rank insights by impact x confidence; drop the interesting-but-not-actionable.196. Recommend concrete steps: investigate, ship, or hold, each with an owner and expected effect.2021## Example22Activation flat at 42% week-over-week. Decomposing by signup source: organic rose 38%→45% while paid fell 46%→39%, cancelling out. Hypothesis: last week's paid campaign drove low-intent traffic (ties to the Tuesday ad launch). Action: pause the underperforming ad set and re-check activation next week (owner: growth).2324## Pitfalls25- Reporting a delta without a baseline, so nobody can tell if it is good or noise.26- Stating causation ("the redesign lifted retention") without a clean before/after or control.27- Drowning the headline in twenty secondary metrics; leadership needs the one thing that matters first.28- Ending with insights but no owned action, leaving the review as trivia.2930## Output format31```32# Metrics Review: [product/area] — window [start–end]33Headline: the one thing leadership must know.3435## Metric table36| Metric | Value | Δ vs prior | Δ vs target | Trend |37| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |3839## Key movements40- [movement] → likely driver [hypothesis if unproven]4142## Watch list43- [metric trending toward trouble]4445## Recommended actions46- [investigate/ship/hold] — owner — expected effect47Data caveats: [quality/completeness notes]48```
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