Change Risk & Rollback
Overview
Produce explicit risk and rollback analysis before deployment. Enumerate failure
modes, assess impact, define rollback procedures, and establish Go/No-Go criteria.
REQUIRED: superpowers:verification-before-completion,
superpowers:systematic-debugging
When to Use
- Planning release or deployment changes
- Requesting assessment of operational risk
- Discussing rollback procedures
- Planning infrastructure or configuration changes
- Preparing production deployment
Core Workflow
- Identify change scope (component, dependencies, traffic, window)
- Enumerate failure modes (minimum 3 with symptom, detection, impact, probability)
- Rate each risk (impact x probability)
- Define rollback procedure (detection, Go/No-Go criteria, execution steps, timeline)
- List prerequisites (backups, monitoring, on-call, previous version)
- Select deployment strategy (Blue-Green, Canary, Rolling, Big-Bang)
- Define success criteria (measurable, time-bound)
See references/failure-modes.md, references/rollback-templates.md,
and references/deployment-strategies.md for details.
Quick Reference
| Risk Level |
Impact x Probability |
Action Required |
| Critical |
HIGH x HIGH |
Executive approval, full plan |
| High |
HIGH x MED |
Full rollback plan required |
| Medium |
MED x MED |
Standard rollback procedures |
| Low |
LOW x LOW |
Minimal documentation |
Red Flags - STOP
- "Deployment is straightforward"
- "Can roll back if needed"
- "No time for risk analysis"
- "Testing caught everything"
- "We'll figure it out if something breaks"
All mean: Apply skill before deployment or document explicit risk acceptance.
Rationalizations Table
| Excuse |
Reality |
| "Deployment is simple" |
No deployment is risk-free. Even simple changes have unexpected impacts. |
| "Can roll back if needed" |
Rollback must be defined BEFORE deployment, not during incident. |
| "No time for risk analysis" |
15 minutes of analysis prevents hours of incident response. |
| "Tested in staging" |
Staging doesn't replicate production. Risk analysis still required. |
| "Too much work to back out" |
Sunk cost fallacy. Better to delay than rush and fail. |
Evidence Checklist
1---2name: change-risk-rollback3description: Use when planning release, deployment, or infrastructure changes. Produces risk assessment with failure modes, impact rating, rollback procedures, and prerequisite execution criteria before deployment.4metadata:5 type: Process6 priority: P17---89# Change Risk & Rollback1011## Overview1213Produce explicit risk and rollback analysis **before** deployment. Enumerate failure14modes, assess impact, define rollback procedures, and establish Go/No-Go criteria.1516**REQUIRED:** superpowers:verification-before-completion,17superpowers:systematic-debugging1819## When to Use2021- Planning release or deployment changes22- Requesting assessment of operational risk23- Discussing rollback procedures24- Planning infrastructure or configuration changes25- Preparing production deployment2627## Core Workflow28291. **Identify change scope** (component, dependencies, traffic, window)302. **Enumerate failure modes** (minimum 3 with symptom, detection, impact, probability)313. **Rate each risk** (impact x probability)324. **Define rollback procedure** (detection, Go/No-Go criteria, execution steps, timeline)335. **List prerequisites** (backups, monitoring, on-call, previous version)346. **Select deployment strategy** (Blue-Green, Canary, Rolling, Big-Bang)357. **Define success criteria** (measurable, time-bound)3637See `references/failure-modes.md`, `references/rollback-templates.md`,38and `references/deployment-strategies.md` for details.3940## Quick Reference4142| Risk Level | Impact x Probability | Action Required |43| ---------- | -------------------- | ----------------------------- |44| Critical | HIGH x HIGH | Executive approval, full plan |45| High | HIGH x MED | Full rollback plan required |46| Medium | MED x MED | Standard rollback procedures |47| Low | LOW x LOW | Minimal documentation |4849## Red Flags - STOP5051- "Deployment is straightforward"52- "Can roll back if needed"53- "No time for risk analysis"54- "Testing caught everything"55- "We'll figure it out if something breaks"5657**All mean: Apply skill before deployment or document explicit risk acceptance.**5859## Rationalizations Table6061| Excuse | Reality |62| --------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------ |63| "Deployment is simple" | No deployment is risk-free. Even simple changes have unexpected impacts. |64| "Can roll back if needed" | Rollback must be defined BEFORE deployment, not during incident. |65| "No time for risk analysis" | 15 minutes of analysis prevents hours of incident response. |66| "Tested in staging" | Staging doesn't replicate production. Risk analysis still required. |67| "Too much work to back out" | Sunk cost fallacy. Better to delay than rush and fail. |6869## Evidence Checklist7071- [ ] Change scope documented (component, dependencies, traffic)72- [ ] Minimum 3 failure modes identified with detection criteria73- [ ] Risk rating for each failure mode74- [ ] Rollback procedure with timeline75- [ ] Go/No-Go criteria explicit and measurable76- [ ] Prerequisites checklist provided77- [ ] Deployment strategy selected with rationale78- [ ] Success criteria defined
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