Market Recon — go look, don't assume
cultural-context gives you hypotheses about how a market thinks. This skill checks them against reality by going and looking — because your model's idea of "the German funeral market" or "how Thai buyers judge premium" is a stale average, and the cheap edge is in the specifics only local sources show. Stated stereotype is as unreliable as stated preference: gather revealed, current, sourced data.
The principle
Perception is local and current, so it has to be observed, not recalled. Two failure modes to avoid:
- Reasoning from the stereotype. "Japanese buyers value quality" is true and useless — it doesn't tell you what this category's leaders actually signal, or what the price band is this year. Go find the specifics.
- Reading the market in the wrong language. English-language summaries of a non-English market are a translation of a translation. Search in the local language, read local sources, note the words locals actually use.
What to gather (the recon checklist)
Aim each search at a lever the moves will pull:
- Local players & positioning — who leads this category in this place, how they describe themselves, what promise they lead with. (feeds reframing)
- Price band & framing — the real range, and how price is shown (per-day, all-in, tiered, hidden until contact). (feeds reframing)
- Trust signals in use — guarantees, certifications, longevity claims, awards, the local proof-of-credibility everyone leans on. (feeds costly-signaling)
- Trust locus & reviews — where buyers actually check: which review platforms, forums, associations, or personal/institutional channels. (feeds costly-signaling)
- Category conventions & taboos — the unwritten "you must / you never" of this category here, plus regulations and sacredness lines. (constrains every move)
- Felt-moment pain points — what local buyers complain about in the journey (found in reviews, forums, complaints). (feeds experience-design)
- Local terminology — the exact words buyers and sellers use, for copy that sounds native rather than translated.
How to apply
- Fix the target. Market = place (country / region / urban-rural) × segment × category. The narrower, the more useful the recon.
- Pull the hypotheses from cultural-context so you know which dials to verify, not just collect trivia.
- Run structured web searches, in the local language. Use the web tools (WebSearch / WebFetch — load via ToolSearch if not already available). Query local competitors, price pages, review sites, forums, trade/association pages, and regulator pages. Read local-language sources directly.
- Synthesise a perception profile, not a link dump: for this market — what signals trust, what "premium" and "cheap" look like, the anchors on offer, the felt-moment pains, the taboos, and the native vocabulary. A page, sourced.
- Stamp recency and cite sources. Note the date of each key fact and flag what's uncertain. Anything still a hypothesis goes to counterintuitive-tests for a cheap behavioural check before you bet on it.
- Hand the profile to the moves. reframing / costly-signaling / experience-design now run on local reality, not a guess.
日本語の使用例
- 「海外(または国内の別地域)で展開したいが、現地の実態を知らない」→ 記憶や一般論で組み立てず、現地語でWeb調査。現地の主要プレイヤー・価格帯・保証や資格などの信頼シグナル・レビューの見られ方を集め、"知覚プロファイル" に落とす。
- 「競合と横並びで差別化できない」→ まず実際の競合が何をシグナルしているかを現地情報で棚卸し。空白のポジション（誰も出していない正直な弱点開示・全部込み価格など）が見えてから reframing / costly-signaling に渡す。
- 「現地の相場観がわからない」→ 価格の"範囲"だけでなく見せ方（1日あたり/総額/段階/問い合わせまで非表示）まで調べる。価格フレームは市場ごとに違う。
- 葬儀/シニア領域：関東/関西など地域単位で慣習と相場が違う。地域の葬儀社の打ち出し、口コミ・紹介・寺や地域評判といった信頼の所在、遺族の不満（journey の痛点）を現地ソースで集め、experience-design と costly-signaling の材料にする。タブー・法規制（表示や許認可）も必ず確認。
Cross-check against the canon
Sanity-check recon findings against these; if one contradicts your read, name it and justify it.
- Paul Samuelson, revealed preference — weight what local players do (their pages, prices, signals) over what anyone says about the market.
- Steve Blank, "get out of the building" — the customer-development canon for the same instruction: facts live outside your assumptions.
- Kahneman, WYSIATI ("what you see is all there is") — the bias this skill exists to counter: a confident market picture built from the few sources you happened to see. Stamp recency, cite sources, flag gaps.
Related skills
- cultural-context — the lens that tells you which dials to verify here; run it first
- psycho-logic — the router; recon grounds its moves in the real target market
- counterintuitive-tests — turn recon's remaining hypotheses into cheap behavioural tests
- reframing / costly-signaling / experience-design — consume the perception profile this produces
1---2name: market-recon3description: The live fieldwork layer for psycho-logic — go look at the actual target market NOW instead of reasoning from your training-data stereotype of it. Use when a psycho-logic move needs grounding in a specific place: the user asks 'what do competitors in [region/country] actually do', 'what's the real price band / norm here', 'how do local leaders position themselves', 'research this market before we localise', 'what signals trust to buyers in X', or is about to launch/adapt in a market you haven't studied. Runs structured web research in the local language — local competitors and their signals, price bands, category conventions, review/trust sources, local terminology, taboos and regulations — and synthesises a compact perception profile the four moves consume. Inspired by Rory Sutherland's *Alchemy*. Routed to from psycho-logic; pair with cultural-context (the lens that tells you what to look for). 日本語・中文の相談（「現地の実態を調べて」「调研当地市场」）にも使う。4---56# Market Recon — go look, don't assume78**cultural-context** gives you hypotheses about how a market thinks. This skill checks them against reality by going and looking — because your model's idea of "the German funeral market" or "how Thai buyers judge premium" is a stale average, and the cheap edge is in the specifics only local sources show. Stated stereotype is as unreliable as stated preference: gather revealed, current, sourced data.910## The principle1112Perception is local *and* current, so it has to be observed, not recalled. Two failure modes to avoid:1314- **Reasoning from the stereotype.** "Japanese buyers value quality" is true and useless — it doesn't tell you what *this* category's leaders actually signal, or what the price band is this year. Go find the specifics.15- **Reading the market in the wrong language.** English-language summaries of a non-English market are a translation of a translation. Search in the local language, read local sources, note the words locals actually use.1617## What to gather (the recon checklist)1819Aim each search at a lever the moves will pull:2021- **Local players & positioning** — who leads this category *in this place*, how they describe themselves, what promise they lead with. (feeds reframing)22- **Price band & framing** — the real range, and *how* price is shown (per-day, all-in, tiered, hidden until contact). (feeds reframing)23- **Trust signals in use** — guarantees, certifications, longevity claims, awards, the local proof-of-credibility everyone leans on. (feeds costly-signaling)24- **Trust locus & reviews** — where buyers actually check: which review platforms, forums, associations, or personal/institutional channels. (feeds costly-signaling)25- **Category conventions & taboos** — the unwritten "you must / you never" of this category here, plus regulations and sacredness lines. (constrains every move)26- **Felt-moment pain points** — what local buyers complain about in the journey (found in reviews, forums, complaints). (feeds experience-design)27- **Local terminology** — the exact words buyers and sellers use, for copy that sounds native rather than translated.2829## How to apply30311. **Fix the target.** Market = place (country / region / urban-rural) × segment × category. The narrower, the more useful the recon.322. **Pull the hypotheses from cultural-context** so you know which dials to verify, not just collect trivia.333. **Run structured web searches, in the local language.** Use the web tools (WebSearch / WebFetch — load via ToolSearch if not already available). Query local competitors, price pages, review sites, forums, trade/association pages, and regulator pages. Read local-language sources directly.344. **Synthesise a perception profile**, not a link dump: for this market — what signals *trust*, what "premium" and "cheap" look like, the anchors on offer, the felt-moment pains, the taboos, and the native vocabulary. A page, sourced.355. **Stamp recency and cite sources.** Note the date of each key fact and flag what's uncertain. Anything still a hypothesis goes to **counterintuitive-tests** for a cheap behavioural check before you bet on it.366. **Hand the profile to the moves.** reframing / costly-signaling / experience-design now run on local reality, not a guess.3738## 日本語の使用例3940- 「海外(または国内の別地域)で展開したいが、現地の実態を知らない」→ 記憶や一般論で組み立てず、**現地語でWeb調査**。現地の主要プレイヤー・価格帯・保証や資格などの信頼シグナル・レビューの見られ方を集め、"知覚プロファイル" に落とす。41- 「競合と横並びで差別化できない」→ まず**実際の競合が何をシグナルしているか**を現地情報で棚卸し。空白のポジション（誰も出していない正直な弱点開示・全部込み価格など）が見えてから reframing / costly-signaling に渡す。42- 「現地の相場観がわからない」→ 価格の"範囲"だけでなく**見せ方**（1日あたり/総額/段階/問い合わせまで非表示）まで調べる。価格フレームは市場ごとに違う。43- 葬儀/シニア領域：関東/関西など**地域単位で慣習と相場が違う**。地域の葬儀社の打ち出し、口コミ・紹介・寺や地域評判といった信頼の所在、遺族の不満（journey の痛点）を現地ソースで集め、experience-design と costly-signaling の材料にする。タブー・法規制（表示や許認可）も必ず確認。4445## Cross-check against the canon4647Sanity-check recon findings against these; if one contradicts your read, name it and justify it.4849- **Paul Samuelson, revealed preference** — weight what local players *do* (their pages, prices, signals) over what anyone says about the market.50- **Steve Blank, "get out of the building"** — the customer-development canon for the same instruction: facts live outside your assumptions.51- **Kahneman, WYSIATI ("what you see is all there is")** — the bias this skill exists to counter: a confident market picture built from the few sources you happened to see. Stamp recency, cite sources, flag gaps.5253## Related skills5455- **cultural-context** — the lens that tells you *which* dials to verify here; run it first56- **psycho-logic** — the router; recon grounds its moves in the real target market57- **counterintuitive-tests** — turn recon's remaining hypotheses into cheap behavioural tests58- **reframing / costly-signaling / experience-design** — consume the perception profile this produces
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