How do I install the Decision Frameworks skill?

Run npx skillmds@latest add menkesu/decision-frameworks in your terminal (requires Node.js), paste this page's agent-chat prompt into Claude, Cursor, or any MCP-connected agent, or download the SKILL.md file and copy it into your agent's skills directory.

Is Decision Frameworks safe to use?

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Which AI agents work with Decision Frameworks?

This skill is tagged as working with Claude Code, Claude.ai, OpenAI Codex. SKILL.md is an open format, so most agents that read a skills directory can load it too.

Is Decision Frameworks free to use?

Yes. Installing skills from SkillMD is free, and the skill stays under its author's original license.

Who published Decision Frameworks?

menkesu (@menkesu) published this skill. Their other Agent Skills are listed on their SkillMD profile.

Decision Frameworks by menkesu — Agent Skill

Name: Decision Frameworks
Rating: 4.2 (5 reviews)
Author: menkesu

Decision Frameworks

Structures difficult decisions using Annie Duke's probabilistic thinking and Ben Horowitz's hard decisions frameworks. Use when facing tough choices, applying expected value thinking, or reducing decision paralysis with regret minimization and pre-mortems.

menkesu Updated Sep 10, 2026

File contents

Decision Architecture

When This Skill Activates

Claude uses this skill when:

Facing difficult product decisions
Choosing between multiple options
Reducing decision paralysis
Evaluating tradeoffs

Core Frameworks

1. Expected Value Thinking (Source: Annie Duke)

The Formula:

Expected Value = (Probability of Success × Value if Successful) 
                - (Probability of Failure × Cost if Fails)

Example:

Decision: Build feature A or B?

Feature A:
- 70% chance of +$100K revenue = $70K
- 30% chance of -$20K cost = -$6K
- Expected value: +$64K

Feature B:
- 30% chance of +$500K revenue = $150K
- 70% chance of -$50K cost = -$35K
- Expected value: +$115K

Choose B (higher EV despite lower probability)

2. Regret Minimization (Source: Jeff Bezos)

The Question:

"When I'm 80 years old, will I regret not trying this?"

Framework:

Imagine yourself in the future
Work backwards
Minimize long-term regret

Action Templates

Template: Decision Matrix

# Decision: [Choice A vs Choice B]

## Expected Value

### Option A
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]

### Option B
- Success probability: [X]%
- Success value: [$Y]
- Failure probability: [Z]%
- Failure cost: [$W]
- **Expected value:** [$EV]

## Regret Minimization
- If I choose A, will I regret not trying B?
- If I choose B, will I regret not trying A?

## Reversibility
- Can we reverse this? [Yes/No]
- Cost to reverse: [Low/Medium/High]

## Decision: [Option] because [reasoning]

Quick Reference

🎲 Decision Checklist

Analysis:

Expected value calculated
Regret minimization applied
Reversibility assessed
Pre-mortem completed

Decision:

Choice made
Reasoning documented
Success criteria defined

Key Quotes

Annie Duke:

"Life is poker, not chess. We're making decisions with incomplete information."

Jeff Bezos:

"Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had."

---name: decision-frameworksdescription: Structures difficult decisions using Annie Duke's probabilistic thinking and Ben Horowitz's hard decisions frameworks. Use when facing tough choices, applying expected value thinking, or reducing decision paralysis with regret minimization and pre-mortems.---# Decision Architecture## When This Skill ActivatesClaude uses this skill when:- Facing difficult product decisions- Choosing between multiple options- Reducing decision paralysis- Evaluating tradeoffs## Core Frameworks### 1. Expected Value Thinking (Source: Annie Duke)**The Formula:**```Expected Value = (Probability of Success × Value if Successful) - (Probability of Failure × Cost if Fails)```**Example:**```markdownDecision: Build feature A or B?Feature A:- 70% chance of +$100K revenue = $70K- 30% chance of -$20K cost = -$6K- Expected value: +$64KFeature B:- 30% chance of +$500K revenue = $150K- 70% chance of -$50K cost = -$35K- Expected value: +$115KChoose B (higher EV despite lower probability)```### 2. Regret Minimization (Source: Jeff Bezos)**The Question:**> "When I'm 80 years old, will I regret not trying this?"**Framework:**- Imagine yourself in the future- Work backwards- Minimize long-term regret---## Action Templates### Template: Decision Matrix```markdown# Decision: [Choice A vs Choice B]## Expected Value### Option A- Success probability: [X]%- Success value: [$Y]- Failure probability: [Z]%- Failure cost: [$W]- **Expected value:** [$EV]### Option B- Success probability: [X]%- Success value: [$Y]- Failure probability: [Z]%- Failure cost: [$W]- **Expected value:** [$EV]## Regret Minimization- If I choose A, will I regret not trying B?- If I choose B, will I regret not trying A?## Reversibility- Can we reverse this? [Yes/No]- Cost to reverse: [Low/Medium/High]## Decision: [Option] because [reasoning]```---## Quick Reference### 🎲 Decision Checklist**Analysis:**- [ ] Expected value calculated- [ ] Regret minimization applied- [ ] Reversibility assessed- [ ] Pre-mortem completed**Decision:**- [ ] Choice made- [ ] Reasoning documented- [ ] Success criteria defined---## Key Quotes**Annie Duke:**> "Life is poker, not chess. We're making decisions with incomplete information."**Jeff Bezos:**> "Most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had."

Frequently asked questions