Financial Modeling

Financial Modeling

Revenue forecasts, expense modeling, cash flow projections, and scenario analysis.

Purpose

Build financial models that help founders make decisions — not impress investors with hockey sticks. Focus on the assumptions that matter and the scenarios that could kill the business.

Workflow

Step 1: Gather Context

• Business model and revenue streams
• Current monthly revenue and expenses (or estimates)
• Growth assumptions and drivers
• Planned hires or major expenses
• Funding status and runway needs

Step 2: Revenue Model

Build bottom-up from drivers:

• Customers x ARPU = Revenue (SaaS)
• Traffic x Conversion Rate x AOV = Revenue (e-commerce)
• Clients x Project Value x Utilization = Revenue (services)
• Units x Price = Revenue (CPG/product)

Monthly projections for 12-24 months.

Step 3: Expense Model

Categorize:

• Fixed costs (rent, salaries, SaaS tools)
• Variable costs (COGS, commissions, shipping)
• Growth investments (marketing spend, new hires)

Step 4: Cash Flow

• Revenue - Expenses = Net burn/profit
• Cash balance projection
• Runway calculation: Cash / Monthly Burn = Months of runway

Step 5: Scenario Analysis

Three scenarios:

• Base case: Realistic assumptions
• Upside case: Things go well (what changes)
• Downside case: Things go badly (what breaks)

For each: when do you run out of cash? When do you break even?

Step 6: Key Metrics Dashboard

• Monthly Recurring Revenue (MRR)
• Burn rate
• Runway
• Gross margin
• Growth rate (MoM)

Output Format

## Financial Model: [Business Name]

### Revenue Projections (12 months)
| Month | Revenue | Expenses | Net | Cash Balance |
|-------|---------|----------|-----|-------------|

### Key Assumptions
[Listed and explained]

### Scenario Analysis
| Scenario | Break-even | Runway | Key Risk |
|----------|-----------|--------|----------|

### Dashboard Metrics
[Current key metrics]

Constraints

• Always label assumptions explicitly — the model is only as good as its inputs
• Don't project beyond what's reasonable for the business stage
• Flag when the user's growth assumptions are unrealistic
• Note that this is a planning tool, not a guarantee
• Cash flow matters more than P&L for startups — always include it