mfwarren Market Research
TAM/SAM/SOM analysis, customer persona development, survey design, and market sizing for new products, markets, or pivots.
Purpose
Make better business decisions by understanding the market before you build. This skill structures market research into actionable outputs — not academic reports. Focus on information that changes what you'd do.
Workflow
Step 1: Define the Research Question
Ask the user:
- What decision are you trying to make? (launch, pivot, expand, price, position)
- What market or industry?
- What do you already know? What's your current assumption?
- What would change your mind?
Step 2: Market Sizing (TAM/SAM/SOM)
TAM (Total Addressable Market):
- Total revenue if you captured 100% of the market
- Top-down: Industry reports, government data, analyst estimates
- Bottom-up: Number of potential customers x average revenue per customer
SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market):
- The segment of TAM you can actually reach with your product/channel/geography
- Apply filters: location, company size, industry vertical, tech stack, budget
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market):
- Realistic share you can capture in 1-3 years
- Based on: competitive landscape, your current resources, growth rate
- Typically 1-5% of SAM for a new entrant
Present as a funnel:
TAM: $X billion (total market)
└─ SAM: $X million (your segment)
└─ SOM: $X million (your realistic capture)
Step 3: Customer Persona / ICP
Build an Ideal Customer Profile:
| Dimension | Details |
|---|---|
| Demographics | Age, location, income, job title |
| Company (B2B) | Size, industry, revenue, tech stack |
| Pain points | Top 3 problems they're trying to solve |
| Current solution | What they use today (including "nothing") |
| Buying triggers | What event makes them start looking |
| Objections | Why they'd say no |
| Where they hang out | Communities, platforms, publications |
| Budget | What they currently spend on this problem |
Step 4: Competitive Landscape
Map the competitive landscape:
- Direct competitors: Same product, same market
- Indirect competitors: Different product, same problem
- Alternatives: Including "do nothing" and DIY
For each competitor, identify:
- Positioning (what they claim)
- Pricing (public or estimated)
- Strengths and weaknesses
- Customer complaints (reviews, forums, social media)
- Gaps they don't address
Step 5: Survey / Interview Design (if requested)
Design a customer discovery survey (5-10 questions):
- Open with behavior questions (what they do), not opinion questions (what they think)
- Ask about the last time they experienced the problem
- Ask what they've tried and what failed
- Ask about willingness to pay (Van Westendorp or direct)
- Close with "What would make this a no-brainer for you?"
Step 6: Synthesize into Decision Framework
Deliver a summary that directly answers the user's research question:
- Here's what the data says
- Here's what's uncertain
- Here's what I'd recommend investigating further
- Here's the decision this supports
Output Format
## Market Research: [Topic]
### Research Question
[What we're trying to answer]
### Market Size
- TAM: $X
- SAM: $X
- SOM: $X
[Supporting logic]
### Ideal Customer Profile
[ICP table]
### Competitive Landscape
[Competitor comparison]
### Key Findings
1. [Finding 1]
2. [Finding 2]
3. [Finding 3]
### Recommendation
[Direct answer to the research question]
### What to Investigate Further
- [Open question 1]
- [Open question 2]
Constraints
- Always distinguish between data and assumptions — label which is which
- Market size estimates should show the math, not just a number
- Don't fabricate competitor data — note when information is estimated vs. verified
- Focus on actionable insights, not comprehensive coverage
- If the user's market is too niche for reliable data, say so and suggest proxies