Market Sentiment

Market Sentiment — Line Movement, Sharp Money & Signals

Read betting market signals to identify where informed money is flowing — distinguish sharp action from public noise and use line movement as an edge.

When to Use This Skill

USE when:

• Interpreting why a line moved (sharp vs. public money)
• Identifying steam moves and reverse line movement (RLM)
• Determining which side the "smart money" favors
• Using market signals as an input to your own model
• Understanding sportsbook line-setting and adjustment behavior

DON'T USE when:

• Learning bet types → use /sports-betting
• Building predictive models → use /odds-modeling
• Finding cross-book arbs → use /arbitrage-scanner
• Betting in-play → use /live-betting-strategy

Step 1: How Lines Are Set and Move

Line Origination

OPENING LINE:
  Set by the sportsbook's quantitative models + oddsmakers
  Influenced by:
  ├── Power ratings (internal models)
  ├── Injuries / roster changes
  ├── Historical data and trends
  ├── Home/away, rest, travel
  └── Market expectations (where they think money will land)

MARKET MAKERS (set the line first):
  Pinnacle, Circa, CRIS — accept sharp action, respond with line moves
  Other books copy these lines with slight adjustments

RETAIL BOOKS (follow the market):
  DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars
  Open near the market-maker line
  Adjust based on their own action AND market-maker movement
  → Often slower to adjust = opportunity for sharp bettors

Why Lines Move

REASON 1: MONEY (the most common cause)
  Heavy one-sided action → book adjusts to balance exposure
  Public bet: $10,000 in small bets on Team A
  Sharp bet: $50,000 in one bet on Team B
  → The $50K sharp bet moves the line more than the $10K public sum

REASON 2: INFORMATION
  Injury report released → line adjusts to new team strength
  Weather forecast changes → totals adjust
  Lineup announcement → starters vs. bench players

REASON 3: MARKET CORRECTION
  A market maker (Pinnacle) moves their line
  Other books follow to avoid being "off-market"
  → This is derivative movement, not independent betting action

REASON 4: STEAM
  Multiple sharp bets hit the same side simultaneously across books
  Causes rapid, synchronized line movement
  → Strongest market signal available

Step 2: Sharp vs. Public Money

Identifying Sharp Action

SHARP MONEY INDICATORS:
  ✓ Line moves AGAINST the public betting percentage
    → 75% of bets on Team A, but the line moves toward Team B
    → This means large, few bets (sharp) outweigh many small bets (public)

  ✓ Early week line movement (NFL: Tuesday-Wednesday)
    → Sharps bet early when lines are softest
    → Public bets later (Thursday-Sunday)

  ✓ Line moves at market-making books (Pinnacle, Circa)
    → These books accept sharp action and react to it
    → If Pinnacle moves, it's because sharp money hit them

  ✓ Bet count vs. handle discrepancy
    → 70% of bets on Team A, but only 40% of money on Team A
    → The 30% of bets on Team B are large (sharp) wagers

  ✓ Reverse line movement at multiple books simultaneously
    → When the line moves against the betting consensus at 3+ books
    → This is the strongest sharp money signal

PUBLIC MONEY INDICATORS:
  ✗ Lines move WITH the betting percentage (70% on A, line moves toward A)
  ✗ Movement happens Thursday-Sunday (NFL) or day-of
  ✗ Driven by narratives ("hot team", "big rivalry", "primetime game")
  ✗ Focused on overs, home favorites, popular teams

The Public's Tendencies

PUBLIC BETTORS TEND TO:
  ├── Bet favorites (especially home favorites)
  ├── Bet overs (high-scoring games are more fun to root for)
  ├── Follow recent results (recency bias — "they're on a hot streak")
  ├── Overvalue primetime/national TV games
  ├── Back popular brands (Cowboys, Lakers, Yankees)
  ├── Take parlays and teasers (worse EV, more excitement)
  └── Bet on big names (Mahomes, LeBron) regardless of matchup

CONTRARIAN VALUE:
  If 80%+ of bets are on one side AND the line hasn't moved:
  → The book is comfortable with the exposure
  → They WANT the public side to lose
  → Contrarian bet may have value (but isn't automatic — verify with model)

Step 3: Key Market Signals

Reverse Line Movement (RLM)

DEFINITION: When the line moves in the opposite direction of the
             majority of bets placed.

EXAMPLE:
  Open:   Team A -3 (-110)
  Bets:   78% on Team A
  Current: Team A -2.5 (-110)  ← Line moved AWAY from the public side

  WHY THIS HAPPENS:
  The 22% of bets on Team B represent MORE MONEY than the 78% on Team A
  → A few large sharp bets outweigh many small public bets
  → The book respects the sharp money and adjusts

RLM STRENGTH TIERS:
  Weak:    60-65% on one side, line moves 0.5 points against → noise
  Moderate: 70-75% on one side, line moves 1+ point against → worth noting
  Strong:  80%+ on one side, line moves 1+ point against → significant signal
  Extreme: 85%+ on one side, line moves through key number → follow the move

IMPORTANT: RLM is not a standalone strategy
  → Use it as ONE input alongside your own model
  → Sharp money is wrong 40-45% of the time (they're not omniscient)

Steam Moves

DEFINITION: Rapid, simultaneous line movement across multiple
             sportsbooks within seconds/minutes.

HOW TO IDENTIFY:
  Time: 0:00  Pinnacle: Team A -3.0
  Time: 0:02  Circa: Team A -3.0 → -3.5
  Time: 0:05  Pinnacle: Team A -3.0 → -3.5
  Time: 0:08  DraftKings: Team A -3.0 → -3.5
  Time: 0:12  FanDuel: Team A -3.0 → -3.5
  → STEAM MOVE detected on Team A

STEAM MOVE SIGNIFICANCE:
  ✓ Multiple sharp bettors or syndicates acting on the same information
  ✓ Often triggered by injury news, weather, or model outputs
  ✓ The fastest and most reliable sharp money indicator
  ✓ Books that haven't yet moved represent "stale lines" — value window

TRADING THE STEAM:
  1. Monitor for multi-book simultaneous movement
  2. If a book hasn't adjusted yet → bet before they do
  3. Window is usually 30 seconds to 5 minutes
  4. Requires multiple funded accounts and fast execution
  5. Books will limit/ban accounts that consistently bet stale lines

Closing Line Value (CLV)

THE MOST IMPORTANT CONCEPT IN SPORTS BETTING:

  CLV = the difference between YOUR price and the CLOSING price

  You bet Team A -3 (-110) on Tuesday
  Line closes at Team A -4.5 (-110) on Sunday

  CLV: You got +1.5 points of value
  → The market agreed with your position AND moved past it
  → Getting consistent positive CLV is the strongest signal of long-term profit

WHY CLV MATTERS MORE THAN P/L:
  - Individual bets are coin flips with edge (noisy)
  - P/L over 100 bets is still noisy
  - CLV over 100 bets reveals whether you're consistently beating the market
  - A bettor with negative P/L but positive CLV is UNLUCKY, not WRONG
  - A bettor with positive P/L but negative CLV is LUCKY, not SKILLED

  → Track CLV for every bet. Review monthly.
  → If CLV is positive over 500+ bets, you have a real edge

Step 4: Reading the Market Timeline

NFL Weekly Line Movement Pattern

MONDAY-TUESDAY (Market Opens):
  └── Lines posted at market-making books
  └── Sharpest window — early bets set initial direction
  └── Limits are lowest — books testing the market

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY (Sharp Phase):
  └── Injury reports influence movement
  └── Syndicate / sharp group bets land
  └── Major line moves happen here
  └── If a line hasn't moved, sharps agree with the open

FRIDAY-SATURDAY (Transition Phase):
  └── Public money starts flowing
  └── Lines adjust for public action
  └── Some late-week sharp moves on updated info
  └── Line begins to firm up toward close

SUNDAY MORNING (Pre-Kickoff):
  └── Final injury reports (90 minutes before kickoff)
  └── Inactive lists confirmed
  └── Final sharp moves (often on weather/injury)
  └── Lines close — market is maximally efficient

OPTIMAL BETTING WINDOWS:
  Sharp approach: Bet Tuesday-Wednesday for best prices
  Contrarian: Bet Sunday morning against inflated public sides
  Steam chasers: Monitor for multi-book moves Wed-Sat

NBA/MLB Daily Patterns

NBA:
  Lines posted: ~24 hours before tip
  Sharp window: Morning of game day
  Public window: Afternoon/evening
  Key factor: Injury reports (often updated within hours of game)
  → NBA lines move later than NFL due to shorter cycle

MLB:
  Lines posted: After starting pitcher confirmation
  Sharp window: Morning (confirmed lineups)
  Public window: Afternoon
  Key factor: Starting pitcher (dominates the line)
  → Pitching changes after line is set can create major edges
  → "Listed pitcher" rules: know if your bet is action regardless

Step 5: Building a Sentiment Dashboard

Data Points to Track

FOR EACH GAME:
  ├── Opening line (with timestamp)
  ├── Current line (live tracking)
  ├── Line movement chart (over time)
  ├── Bet percentage (% of bets on each side)
  ├── Money percentage (% of handle on each side)
  ├── RLM indicator (bet% vs movement direction)
  ├── Steam alert (multi-book synchronized movement)
  ├── Pinnacle / Circa line vs. retail book lines
  └── Your model's fair line (for comparison)

SOURCES:
  Free: VegasInsider, Scores and Odds, OddsShark
  Paid: Action Network, Unabated, Sports Insights
  API: Odds API (for programmatic line tracking)
  Prediction markets: Kalshi (use kalshi-markets skill), Polymarket

Interpreting Combined Signals

SIGNAL STRENGTH MATRIX:

| RLM | Steam | Model Agrees | Confidence |
|-----|-------|-------------|------------|
| ✓   | ✓     | ✓           | STRONG — multiple independent signals align |
| ✓   | ✓     | ✗           | MODERATE — market knows something, investigate |
| ✓   | ✗     | ✓           | MODERATE — your model + sharp money align |
| ✗   | ✓     | ✓           | MODERATE — steam without RLM can be noise |
| ✓   | ✗     | ✗           | WEAK — sharp money alone isn't enough |
| ✗   | ✗     | ✓           | YOUR MODEL — no market confirmation, proceed carefully |
| ✗   | ✗     | ✗           | NO SIGNAL — skip this game |

BEST SCENARIO: Your model identifies value, then the line moves in
your direction AFTER you've already bet → positive CLV confirmation

Step 6: Common Traps

Don't Fall For These

TRAP 1: "EVERYONE IS ON TEAM A — FADE THE PUBLIC"
  Reality: Public % alone is a weak signal
  Fix: Check if money % disagrees (RLM), not just bet count

TRAP 2: "THE LINE MOVED, SO SHARPS ARE ON THIS SIDE"
  Reality: Lines move for information too (injury, weather)
  Fix: Check WHY the line moved before assuming sharp action

TRAP 3: "STEAM MOVE = GUARANTEED WINNER"
  Reality: Steam moves win ~55-58%, not 100%
  Fix: Use steam as one input, not the entire thesis

TRAP 4: "I'LL JUST FOLLOW THIS SHARP BETTOR'S PICKS"
  Reality: Following picks without understanding the thesis = no edge
  Fix: Understand the reasoning, not just the selection

TRAP 5: "LINE MOVEMENT MEANS THE GAME IS FIXED"
  Reality: Lines move because of money and information flow
  Fix: Market mechanics explain 99.9% of line movement

TRAP 6: "PINNACLE'S CLOSING LINE IS THE TRUE PROBABILITY"
  Reality: It's the most efficient estimate, but still has 2-3% margin
  Fix: Use it as a benchmark, not as gospel

Output

Save sentiment analysis to artifacts/prediction-markets/sentiment-[event/date].md

Guidelines

• CLV is the single best metric for evaluating your betting — track it religiously
• Sharp money wins ~55-58% — they're informed, not infallible
• Line movement is a signal, not a strategy — never bet solely because a line moved
• The best scenario: your model finds value → then the line moves your way (positive CLV)
• The public is a useful counter-indicator when combined with RLM, not in isolation
• Use /sports-betting for understanding the markets you're reading signals on
• Use /odds-modeling to generate your own probability estimates for comparison
• Use market-mechanics-betting for edge calculation once you've identified a signal
• Use /arbitrage-scanner to exploit stale lines when steam moves haven't propagated