Distribution Viability Check

distribution-viability-check

Agent: Growth Lead

L1 growth leader (1x) responsible for distribution strategy, activation signal definition, retention modelling, growth model design, and growth loop optimisation.

Department ethos: ideal-data-growth.md

Skill Description

The distribution viability check evaluates whether each proposed acquisition channel can reach the target customer segment at a CAC that sustains a healthy LTV:CAC ratio, producing a go/no-go verdict per channel before budget is committed.

When to Use

• When the growth model proposes acquisition channels that have not been tested or validated.
• When a new market segment is targeted and existing channel assumptions may not transfer.
• When CAC on an existing channel degrades and the team evaluates alternatives.
• When a GTM strategy includes partner or marketplace distribution that needs feasibility assessment.

Workflow

1. Define target customer: Specify the ICP (ideal customer profile) including demographics, behaviour patterns, and the platforms/channels where they spend time.
2. List candidate channels: Enumerate all proposed channels — paid search, paid social, content/SEO, partnerships, marketplaces, product-led/viral, community, events.
3. Estimate unit economics per channel: For each channel, estimate CPC/CPM, expected CTR, landing page conversion rate, and resulting CAC. Use industry benchmarks where first-party data is unavailable.
4. Assess volume ceiling: Estimate the maximum monthly volume each channel can deliver before audience saturation degrades economics. Cross-reference with search volume and audience size data.
5. Calculate LTV:CAC ratio: For each channel, compute the expected LTV:CAC ratio and payback period. Flag channels where LTV:CAC falls below 3:1 or payback exceeds 12 months.
6. Produce viability scorecard: Rate each channel on reach (can it hit the ICP?), economics (CAC within budget?), scalability (volume ceiling sufficient?), and timeline (how quickly can it be activated?). Deliver a go/caution/no-go per channel.

Anti-Patterns

• Benchmark-only analysis: Relying entirely on industry benchmarks without running a small-scale test overestimates confidence in channel economics. Why: your product, ICP, and messaging produce different results than the average.
• Ignoring payback period: Focusing on LTV:CAC ratio without considering payback period strains cash flow for early-stage companies. Why: a 5:1 ratio with a 24-month payback is worse than 3:1 with a 3-month payback when capital is limited.
• Single-channel dependency: Approving only one channel creates concentration risk. Why: platform algorithm changes, policy updates, or cost inflation can eliminate a single channel overnight.

Output

Success:

• A distribution viability scorecard rating each channel on reach, economics, scalability, and timeline, with a go/caution/no-go verdict and supporting data.

Failure:

• No viable channel achieves LTV:CAC above 3:1. Report the analysis, the closest channels, and recommend whether to adjust pricing (increase LTV), reduce CAC through product-led growth, or narrow the ICP.

Related Skills

• growth-model-designer -- the growth model assumes channel performance that this skill validates.
• demand-gen-planner-growth -- the demand gen plan is built using channels approved by this viability check.
• search-demand-validator -- search demand data informs volume ceiling estimates for organic and paid search channels.