effort-estimator-eng
Agent: VP Engineering
L1 engineering leader (1x) responsible for spec intake review, team allocation, architecture oversight, velocity monitoring, and go-live approvals. Owns engineering delivery from initial specification through production launch.
Department ethos: ideal-engineering.md
Skill Description
Estimates engineering effort required for features, initiatives, and delivery phases using historical velocity data and complexity analysis.
When to Use
- When a new feature or initiative needs a time-and-resource estimate before committing to a delivery date.
- When a phase plan requires effort breakdowns for team allocation decisions.
- When leadership requests a rough-order-of-magnitude estimate for roadmap planning.
Workflow
- Scope review: Read the specification, architecture decisions, and any spike outputs. Identify knowns, unknowns, and external dependencies. Deliverable: scoped estimation brief listing all work streams.
- Complexity assessment: Classify each work stream by complexity (simple, medium, complex) based on novelty, integration surface, and uncertainty. Deliverable: complexity-tagged work stream list.
- Reference-class estimation: Compare each work stream to historical analogues using DORA metrics and past velocity data. Apply calibration factors for team familiarity and tech stack maturity. Deliverable: point or person-week estimates per work stream with confidence intervals.
- Risk buffer calculation: Add contingency based on the number of unknowns, external dependencies, and team ramp-up needs. Use a multiplier (1.2x for low risk, 1.5x for medium, 2x for high uncertainty). Deliverable: buffered estimate with stated assumptions.
- Consolidate and present: Aggregate into a single estimate with breakdown by phase, team, and risk tier. Deliverable: effort estimate document with assumptions log.
Anti-Patterns
- Precision theater: Providing single-point estimates without confidence ranges. Why: false precision erodes trust when reality diverges, and prevents stakeholders from making risk-informed decisions.
- Anchoring to deadlines: Starting from a desired date and working backwards to fit scope. Why: deadline-driven estimates produce systematic underestimates that lead to crunch and quality erosion.
- Ignoring integration cost: Estimating components in isolation without accounting for integration, testing, and deployment overhead. Why: integration work often exceeds component work in multi-service systems.
Output
On success: Produces an effort estimate document containing per-work-stream estimates with confidence intervals, a total delivery estimate with risk buffer, stated assumptions, and comparison to historical analogues. Delivered to phase planning and team allocation stakeholders.
On failure: Report which work streams could not be estimated (e.g., pending spike results, undefined API contracts), the impact on overall estimate confidence, and recommended next steps to reduce uncertainty.
Related Skills
team-allocator -- uses effort estimates to determine staffing assignments.phase-planner-eng -- effort estimates feed directly into phase planning timelines.
1---2name: effort-estimator-eng3description: This skill estimates engineering effort required for features and initiatives. Use when asked to size a feature, provide a time estimate for a delivery, or forecast resource needs for a project. Also consider when a phase plan needs effort figures before team allocation. Suggest when stakeholders request delivery timelines without engineering input.4---56# effort-estimator-eng78## Agent: VP Engineering910L1 engineering leader (1x) responsible for spec intake review, team allocation, architecture oversight, velocity monitoring, and go-live approvals. Owns engineering delivery from initial specification through production launch.1112Department ethos: [ideal-engineering.md](../../../../departments/engineering/ideal-engineering.md)1314## Skill Description1516Estimates engineering effort required for features, initiatives, and delivery phases using historical velocity data and complexity analysis.1718## When to Use1920- When a new feature or initiative needs a time-and-resource estimate before committing to a delivery date.21- When a phase plan requires effort breakdowns for team allocation decisions.22- When leadership requests a rough-order-of-magnitude estimate for roadmap planning.2324## Workflow25261. **Scope review**: Read the specification, architecture decisions, and any spike outputs. Identify knowns, unknowns, and external dependencies. Deliverable: scoped estimation brief listing all work streams.272. **Complexity assessment**: Classify each work stream by complexity (simple, medium, complex) based on novelty, integration surface, and uncertainty. Deliverable: complexity-tagged work stream list.283. **Reference-class estimation**: Compare each work stream to historical analogues using DORA metrics and past velocity data. Apply calibration factors for team familiarity and tech stack maturity. Deliverable: point or person-week estimates per work stream with confidence intervals.294. **Risk buffer calculation**: Add contingency based on the number of unknowns, external dependencies, and team ramp-up needs. Use a multiplier (1.2x for low risk, 1.5x for medium, 2x for high uncertainty). Deliverable: buffered estimate with stated assumptions.305. **Consolidate and present**: Aggregate into a single estimate with breakdown by phase, team, and risk tier. Deliverable: effort estimate document with assumptions log.3132## Anti-Patterns3334- **Precision theater**: Providing single-point estimates without confidence ranges. *Why*: false precision erodes trust when reality diverges, and prevents stakeholders from making risk-informed decisions.35- **Anchoring to deadlines**: Starting from a desired date and working backwards to fit scope. *Why*: deadline-driven estimates produce systematic underestimates that lead to crunch and quality erosion.36- **Ignoring integration cost**: Estimating components in isolation without accounting for integration, testing, and deployment overhead. *Why*: integration work often exceeds component work in multi-service systems.3738## Output3940**On success**: Produces an effort estimate document containing per-work-stream estimates with confidence intervals, a total delivery estimate with risk buffer, stated assumptions, and comparison to historical analogues. Delivered to phase planning and team allocation stakeholders.4142**On failure**: Report which work streams could not be estimated (e.g., pending spike results, undefined API contracts), the impact on overall estimate confidence, and recommended next steps to reduce uncertainty.4344## Related Skills4546- [`team-allocator`](../../../engineering/vp-engineering/team-allocator/SKILL.md) -- uses effort estimates to determine staffing assignments.47- [`phase-planner-eng`](../../../engineering/vp-engineering/phase-planner-eng/SKILL.md) -- effort estimates feed directly into phase planning timelines.
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