mittuled rolling-forecast-updater
Agent: FP&A Analyst
L2 FP&A analyst (1x) responsible for budgeting, forecasting, variance analysis, board reporting, fundraising models, and SaaS metrics.
Department ethos: ideal-finance.md
Skill Description
Updates the rolling forecast monthly by replacing projections with actuals, incorporating pipeline changes, and adjusting assumptions to maintain a continuously accurate financial outlook.
When to Use
- When the monthly close is complete and the rolling forecast needs to be refreshed with actuals.
- When a material event (large deal signed/lost, headcount change, market shift) requires an interim forecast update.
- When the CFO needs an updated runway calculation or cash flow projection for board communication.
Workflow
- Actuals Integration: Replace forecast months with finalized actuals. Recalculate year-to-date performance and remaining-period projections. Update the baseline for all forward-looking assumptions. Deliverable: forecast model with actuals integrated.
- Revenue Reforecast: Update the revenue forecast using latest pipeline data (weighted pipeline by stage), bookings run-rate, churn actuals, and expansion trends. Reconcile with sales team's bottom-up commit. Deliverable: updated revenue forecast with pipeline support.
- Expense Reforecast: Update expense projections based on actual hiring pace vs. plan, vendor commitments, and any approved spend changes. Adjust for timing differences identified in variance analysis. Deliverable: updated expense forecast by department.
- Cash Flow Update: Recalculate the cash flow forecast with updated billing mix, collections performance (DSO trend), and payment timing. Update runway calculation. Deliverable: updated cash flow forecast with runway.
- Forecast vs. Budget Reconciliation: Document the delta between the updated forecast and the annual budget. Explain the drivers of deviation and flag whether budget reallocation is needed. Deliverable: forecast-to-budget bridge with commentary.
Anti-Patterns
- Forecast anchoring: Keeping the forecast close to the original budget even when actuals clearly indicate a different trajectory. Why: anchored forecasts give leadership false confidence and delay necessary course corrections.
- Single-point forecasting: Updating only the base case without refreshing best/worst scenarios. Why: leadership needs the range of outcomes to make informed decisions, especially as the year progresses and uncertainty resolves.
- Ignoring pipeline quality: Updating the revenue forecast using pipeline totals without adjusting for stage conversion rates and deal age. Why: a pipeline full of stale or early-stage deals overstates the revenue outlook.
Output
On success: Produces an updated rolling forecast containing revenue, expense, and cash flow projections with a forecast-to-budget bridge and scenario updates. Delivered to the CFO within 7 business days of close.
On failure: Report which inputs are pending (e.g., pipeline data not updated by sales, close not finalized), what partial update is possible, and the expected timeline for a complete forecast. Flag any data quality issues.
Related Skills
monthly-variance-analyser-- Provides the variance insights that inform forecast adjustments.annual-budget-builder-- Establishes the annual budget that the rolling forecast is compared against.