modbender Alpha Finder (Market Oracle)
Research prediction markets and find alpha using AI-powered market intelligence across Polymarket, Kalshi, and traditional sources.
Configuration
The private key must be available via one of these methods:
Option 1: Environment variable
export X402_PRIVATE_KEY="0x..."
Option 2: Config file (Recommended)
The script checks for x402-config.json in these locations (in order):
- Current directory:
./x402-config.json - Home directory:
~/.x402-config.json← Recommended - Working directory:
$PWD/x402-config.json
Create the config file:
{
"private_key": "0x1234567890abcdef..."
}
Example (home directory - works for any user):
echo '{"private_key": "0x..."}' > ~/.x402-config.json
Usage
Run the market research script with a query about prediction markets or events:
scripts/analyze.sh "<market query>"
The script:
- Executes market intelligence research with payment handling
- Costs $0.03 USDC per request (Base network)
- Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X for comprehensive analysis
- Returns AI-processed market insights and probability assessments
Examples
User: "What are the odds for Bitcoin hitting $100k?"
scripts/analyze.sh "Bitcoin 100k prediction market odds"
User: "Find arbitrage opportunities in election markets"
scripts/analyze.sh "2024 election prediction market arbitrage"
User: "Analyze Polymarket odds on AI developments"
scripts/analyze.sh "Polymarket AI development predictions"
User: "What's the market sentiment on climate policy outcomes?"
scripts/analyze.sh "climate policy prediction markets Kalshi Polymarket"
Capabilities
- Polymarket research - Event analysis and odds tracking
- Kalshi market analysis - Regulated prediction market insights
- Multi-source intelligence - Searches web, GitHub, Reddit, and X
- Probability assessments - AI-powered market sentiment analysis
- Arbitrage identification - Spot inefficiencies across markets
- Event research - Deep dive into specific prediction market events
- Historical tracking - Compare current odds to historical patterns
Data Sources
The tool automatically searches across:
- Polymarket events and odds
- Kalshi regulated markets
- Reddit discussions and sentiment
- X/Twitter market commentary
- GitHub repositories (for tech-related predictions)
- Web sources for news and analysis
Error Handling
- "Payment failed: Not enough USDC" → Inform user to top up Base wallet with USDC
- "X402 private key missing" → Guide user to configure private key (see Configuration above)
- Timeout errors → The API has a 5-minute timeout; comprehensive research may take time
Use Cases
- Trading: Find mispriced markets and arbitrage opportunities
- Research: Analyze market sentiment on specific events
- Due Diligence: Verify market probabilities before betting
- Portfolio Management: Track prediction market positions
- News Analysis: Understand how events impact market odds