modbender Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader
Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data.
When to Use This Skill
Use this skill when the user wants to:
- Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically
- Set up @noovd-style bucket trading
- Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events
- Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions
- Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds
How the Strategy Works
Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy:
- Get XTracker pace — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total
- Find center bucket — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace
- Buy adjacent buckets — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread)
- Check combined cost — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold)
- One bucket pays $1 — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs
Setup Flow
When user asks to install or configure this skill:
Install the Simmer SDK
pip install simmer-sdkAsk for Simmer API key
- They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
- Store in environment as
SIMMER_API_KEY
Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)
- This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
- Store in environment as
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
Ask about settings (or confirm defaults)
- Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢)
- Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00)
- Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1)
- Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢)
Save settings to config.json or environment variables
Set up cron (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling)
Configuration
| Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max bucket sum | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM |
max_bucket_sum |
0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this |
| Max position | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION |
max_position_usd |
5.00 | Maximum USD per bucket |
| Bucket spread | SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD |
bucket_spread |
1 | Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) |
| Smart sizing % | SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT |
sizing_pct |
0.05 | % of balance per trade |
| Max trades/run | SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES |
max_trades_per_run |
6 | Maximum trades per scan cycle |
| Exit threshold | SIMMER_ELON_EXIT |
exit_threshold |
0.65 | Sell when bucket price above this |
| Slippage max | SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_MAX |
slippage_max_pct |
0.05 | Skip trade if slippage exceeds this |
| Min position | SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION |
min_position_usd |
2.00 | Floor for smart sizing (USD) |
| Data source | SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE |
data_source |
xtracker | Data source (xtracker) |
Config priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults.
Quick Commands
# Check account balance and positions
python scripts/status.py
# Detailed position list
python scripts/status.py --positions
API Reference:
- Base URL:
https://api.simmer.markets - Auth:
Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY - Portfolio:
GET /api/sdk/portfolio - Positions:
GET /api/sdk/positions
Running the Skill
# Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades)
python elon_tweets.py
# Execute real trades
python elon_tweets.py --live
# With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance)
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing
# Show XTracker stats only
python elon_tweets.py --stats
# Check positions only
python elon_tweets.py --positions
# View config
python elon_tweets.py --config
# Update config
python elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00
# Disable safeguards (not recommended)
python elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards
# Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron)
python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet
# Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise
python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet
How It Works
Each cycle the script:
- Fetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events
- Gets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining
- Searches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing)
- Finds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection
- Evaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread)
- Entry: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket
- Exit: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold
- Safeguards: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage
- Tagging: All trades tagged with
sdk:elon-tweetsfor tracking
Auto-Import
If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them:
- Derives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title
- Uses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events)
- Imports all outcome buckets as a group
- Counts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count
Smart Sizing
With --smart-sizing, position size is calculated as:
- 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via
sizing_pct) - Capped at max position setting ($5.00 default)
- Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable
Safeguards
Before trading, the skill checks:
- Flip-flop warning: Skips if you've been reversing too much
- Slippage: Skips if estimated slippage > 15%
- Market status: Skips closed or resolved markets
- Extreme prices: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2%
Disable with --no-safeguards (not recommended).
Source Tagging
All trades are tagged with source: "sdk:elon-tweets". This means:
- Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy
- Other skills won't sell your tweet positions
- You can track tweet trading P&L separately
Example Output
🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader
==================================================
⚙️ Configuration:
Max bucket sum: $0.90
Max position: $5.00
Bucket spread: 1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets)
Exit threshold: 65%
Data source: xtracker
📊 XTracker Stats:
Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20
Current count: 187 posts
Pace: 243 projected
Days remaining: 2.3
🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279
240-259: $0.35
220-239: $0.22
260-279: $0.18
Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅
Executing trades...
✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35
✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22
✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18
📊 Summary:
Events scanned: 2
Clusters evaluated: 2
Trades executed: 3
Exits: 0
Troubleshooting
"No XTracker trackings found"
- XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events
- New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays
"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"
- Buckets are too expensive — edge is too thin
- Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread
"No matching Simmer markets found"
- Markets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run
- Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro)
"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"
- You've been changing direction too much on this market
- Wait before trading again
"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"
WALLET_PRIVATE_KEYis not set in the environment- The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed
- Fix:
export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key> - Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it
"Balance shows $0 but I have USDC on Polygon"
- Polymarket uses USDC.e (bridged USDC, contract
0x2791Bca1f2de4661ED88A30C99A7a9449Aa84174) — not native USDC - If you bridged USDC to Polygon recently, you likely received native USDC
- Swap native USDC to USDC.e, then retry
"API key invalid"
- Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab