modbender Polymarket Scanner
Automated prediction market scanner that finds mispriced markets and executes trades via the Simmer Markets API.
Setup
Required
SIMMER_API_KEYenv var (get from https://simmer.markets)- Simmer agent registered and claimed
Optional
- Telegram bot for trade notifications
Commands
Auto-scan (default)
python scripts/scanner.py
Scans top 20 opportunities, filters by score/divergence/warnings, executes qualifying trades.
Check positions
python scripts/scanner.py --positions
Check balance
python scripts/scanner.py --status
Trading Rules (built-in)
| Rule | Virtual ($SIM) | Real (USDC) |
|---|---|---|
| Single trade | ≤10% balance | ≤$100 |
| Daily limit | ≤30% balance | ≤$500 |
| Stop-loss | -15% | -10% |
| Max positions | 5 | 3 |
| Min opportunity score | 25 | 40 |
| Min divergence | 3% | 5% |
Strategy
- Cross-platform arbitrage — Price divergence between Polymarket and external sources
- Momentum shifts — Rapid price changes indicating mispricing
- Data-driven events — Weather, economic data, quantifiable outcomes preferred
Architecture
Cron (every 4h) → scanner.py → Simmer API
├── Get balance & positions
├── Scan opportunities (score, divergence, warnings)
├── Filter by trading rules
├── Execute qualifying trades (SIM auto, USDC manual)
└── Log to trading_log.jsonl
Risk Controls
- All trades logged to
trading_log.jsonl - Serious spread warnings (>10%) auto-skip
- Already-held markets auto-skip
- Balance <$100 auto-stop
- Real USDC trades require human confirmation