modbender Polymarket Scout — Hourly Market Edge Detector
Scans Polymarket's hourly BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP up/down markets for tradeable edge using the Argus strategy.
What It Does
- Fetches live Polymarket odds for hourly crypto markets via REST API
- Computes edge = our_P(win) - market_implied_P(win)
- Flags counter-consensus setups (TA says UP, market says 70%+ DOWN → positive EV)
- Applies freshness guard: skips markets >92% consensus (L020)
- Returns ranked edge opportunities with bet sizing (Kelly)
Usage
Use polymarket-scout to scan current hourly markets for edge
Use polymarket-scout to check BTC 10am ET edge
Use polymarket-scout to find best Polymarket bet right now
Edge Calculation
edge = our_P - market_P
where our_P = TA-calibrated probability per asset:
BTC: reliability 0.75, min score ±3
ETH: reliability 0.80, slight UP bias +0.05
SOL: reliability 0.90, UP bias +0.05
XRP: reliability 0.70, UP bias +0.08 (CLARITY catalyst)
Counter-Consensus Rule (L023)
When TA score ≥+1 AND market DOWN >80% AND ≥20 min remaining → counter-consensus UP has positive EV. Validated: 77.8% WR on fresh primary bets.
API Integration
Uses Polymarket CLOB REST API and Gamma API (no keys required).