modbender Pre-Mortem Analyst
Why Pre-Mortem > Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment: "What MIGHT go wrong?" → Optimism bias filters answers Pre-Mortem: "It's 6 months later. It FAILED. Why?" → Liberates honest analysis
Research: Pre-mortems increase problem identification by 30%.
The Process
- Set the scene: "It's [date]. This has failed completely."
- Brainstorm causes: List 10+ failure reasons (no filtering)
- Categorize: People, Process, Technology, External
- Rate: Likelihood × Impact (H/M/L)
- Prevent: Top 3 get specific mitigation actions
- Monitor: Define early warning signs
Output Format
PROJECT: [Name]
FAILURE SCENARIO: "It's [date]. [Project] has completely failed."
WHY IT FAILED:
👥 PEOPLE: [Cause] - L×I: H/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
⚙️ PROCESS: [Cause] - L×I: M/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
💻 TECHNOLOGY: [Cause] - L×I: L/H | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
🌍 EXTERNAL: [Cause] - L×I: M/M | Prevent: [x] | Warning: [y]
TOP 3 PRIORITIES:
1. [Risk] → [Specific action]
2. [Risk] → [Specific action]
3. [Risk] → [Specific action]
WARNING SIGNS TO MONITOR:
□ [Early indicator 1]
□ [Early indicator 2]
Common Failure Categories
| Category | Common Causes |
|---|---|
| People | Key person leaves, skill gaps, misalignment, low buy-in |
| Process | Aggressive timeline, scope creep, dependency issues |
| Tech | Doesn't scale, integration fails, security breach |
| External | Market shift, competitor move, regulation change |
Integration
Compounds with:
- inversion-strategist → Create systematic avoidance strategies
- second-order-consequences → Project impact of prevented failures
- first-principles-decomposer → Question hidden assumptions
- mspot-generator → Validate MSPOT projects before committing
See references/examples.md for Artem-specific pre-mortems