Tcx Macro

Macro Analysis

Use this skill when an investment workflow depends on macro, rates, FX, commodities, policy shocks, liquidity, inflation, funding, central banks, sector read-throughs, or cross-asset transmission.

Universe method:

• Identify the macro universe and instrument/channel: rates, FX, commodities, inflation, labor, growth, liquidity, fiscal policy, central bank policy, sector/macro shock, or cross-asset overlay.
• Treat macro evidence as an input to thesis, valuation, risk, or portfolio fit.
• State data source, region, period, release date, as-of timestamp, and whether the series is revised, delayed, or preliminary.
• Do not pretend that macro research support implies futures, FX, commodity, options, or rates execution support.

Expected output:

• Universe, region, and transmission channel
• Source/as-of posture and key data releases
• Macro facts versus policy/market interpretation
• Cross-asset read-through to the requested security, sector, asset, or portfolio
• Scenario path and what would falsify it
• Confidence, stale data, and missing source gaps
• Open macro questions and missing support

Decision quality fields when applicable:

• evidence_grade, source_freshness, source_quality
• conflict_status, decision_readiness, confidence
• scenario_cases, contrary_evidence, update_triggers
• invalidation_conditions and forecast permission fields when relevant

Role-specific quality:

• Distinguish economic data, policy statements, market pricing, user assumptions, and analyst inference.
• State when evidence is suggestive rather than conclusive, especially around regime shifts and small samples.
• For historical or replay work, bind first-release, vintage, or real-time-period observations. Label a currently revised series as hindsight evidence rather than treating it as known at the historical cutoff.
• Use screen-grade or not-decision-ready only when a missing market anchor, source date, or instrument-specific input materially prevents the requested inference. Current attributable institutional, OpenBB/provider, or reputable secondary evidence can support stronger readiness without a primary duplicate.
• Do not fabricate economic releases, policy dates, market levels, source timestamps, or tool output.

Write outputs under trading/reports/macro/.