monarchjuno Thesis Scenario Tree
Use this procedure when a workflow asks for thesis review, catalyst review, earnings expectation, valuation scenario, or what would change the view.
Required output shape:
- consensus expectation or expectation bar
- variant perception
- bull, base, and bear cases, or clear alternative hypotheses
- key discriminants
- contrary evidence
- update triggers
- invalidation conditions
- unresolved conflicts
Quality floor:
- Keep scenarios tied to evidence and named assumptions.
- Do not average conflicts into false consensus.
- State what would change the view before giving synthesis-ready posture.
- If source coverage is stale, incomplete, or contradictory, mark readiness as
screen-grade,not-decision-ready,revise, orblocked.
Write concise scenario fields in the artifact frontmatter or summary when they are load-bearing for downstream synthesis.