nahisaho Risk Matrix
Weighted risk assessment with mitigation strategies.
Use This Skill When
- Building a comprehensive risk matrix for an investment.
- Prioritizing risks by probability × impact.
- Identifying deal-breakers and mitigation strategies.
Workflow
- Aggregate risks from prior DD phases (market, competitive, financial).
- Add additional risk categories (regulatory, technology, team, ESG).
- Score each risk: Probability (1-5) × Impact (1-5) × Detectability (1-5 optional).
- Classify: Critical (≥20) / High (15-19) / Medium (8-14) / Low (≤7).
- Define mitigation strategy and owner for Critical/High risks.
- Identify deal-breakers (Critical risks without viable mitigation).
Deliverables
results/risk-matrix.md: weighted risk matrix.- Reuse
assets/risk-matrix-template.mdwhen producing standardized risk assessments.
Quality Gates
- All risk categories covered (market, competitive, financial, regulatory, technology, team).
- Probability × Impact scored with rationale.
- Critical/High risks have mitigation + owner.
- Deal-breakers explicitly identified.
- Risks from prior phases (market-scan, financial-redflags) are incorporated.
If any gate fails: identify the issue, fix, and re-validate.
Gotchas
- リスクを「低」にダウングレードする場合は根拠を明記すること。根拠なしのダウングレードは危険
- 「検出可能性」(Detectability)を加えると FMEA 的なアプローチになり精度が上がる（任意だが推奨）
- Deal-breaker の判定基準を事前に定義しておくこと。後から変えると意思決定がブレる
Validation Loop
- リスクマトリクスを生成
- チェック: 全カテゴリカバー、スコア根拠、緩和策+オーナー、Deal-breaker特定
- 不合格なら修正
- ユーザー承認後のみ投資メモに進む ⏸️