Purpose
Design rigorous A/B experiments that produce trustworthy, actionable results — with clear hypothesis, proper sample sizing, correct control/variant setup, and pre-defined decision criteria. Avoids the common traps that make most experiments statistically meaningless.
Application
Experiment Design Template
# Experiment: [Name]
## Hypothesis
**We believe that** [change]
**for** [user segment]
**will** [improve metric]
**because** [causal mechanism]
## Setup
- **Primary metric:** [What you're measuring]
- **Control:** [Current experience]
- **Variant:** [Changed experience]
- **Traffic split:** [50/50, unless good reason otherwise]
- **Segment:** [Who's included/excluded]
## Sample Size & Duration
- **MDE (minimum detectable effect):** [X% lift you care about]
- **Baseline conversion:** [Current rate]
- **Statistical significance:** [95% — standard]
- **Required sample size:** [Calculated]
- **Estimated duration:** [Days to reach sample size]
## Decision Criteria
- **Ship variant if:** [Primary metric improves by ≥X% with p<0.05]
- **Ship control if:** [No significant difference OR negative impact]
- **Extend if:** [Trending positive but not yet significant]
- **Guard rails:** [Metrics that must NOT regress]
## Analysis Plan
- **Primary:** [Metric + analysis method]
- **Secondary:** [Additional metrics to monitor]
- **Segmentation:** [Sub-groups to analyze]
Traps to Avoid
| Trap | Problem | Fix |
|---|---|---|
| Peeking | Checking results daily | Wait for full sample size |
| Multiple metrics | Testing 10 metrics, one hits p<0.05 | Pre-declare primary metric |
| Underpowered | Too small a sample to detect real effects | Calculate sample size BEFORE launch |
| Novelty effect | New thing gets attention, not better | Let experiment run 2+ weeks |
| Selection bias | Non-random assignment | True random traffic split |
Quality Rubric
| Dimension | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hypothesis | No hypothesis | Vague | Specific with causal mechanism |
| Sample Size | "We'll run it a week" | Estimated | Calculated with MDE |
| Decision Criteria | "We'll see" | Ship/don't ship | Ship/extend/kill with guardrails |
| Statistical Rigor | No significance testing | P-value checked | Pre-registered analysis plan |
References
Related Skills
skills/planning/epic-hypothesis/SKILL.md— Experiments test epic hypothesesskills/analytics/funnel-analysis/SKILL.md— Funnel data for baselineskills/growth/activation-optimization/SKILL.md— Common A/B test area
External Frameworks
- Ron Kohavi, Trustworthy Online Controlled Experiments (2020)
- Evan Miller's A/B Test Sample Size Calculator
Skill type: Component Domain: Growth & Optimization