Purpose
Build a quantitative growth model using the AARRR framework (Acquisition, Activation, Retention, Revenue, Referral) — creating a spreadsheet-ready model with assumptions, projections, and sensitivity analysis.
Application
AARRR Growth Model Template
# Growth Model: [Product Name]
**Period:** [Monthly/Quarterly projections]
## Assumptions
| Parameter | Value | Source | Confidence |
|-----------|-------|--------|-----------|
| Monthly traffic | [#] | [GA/marketing data] | [H/M/L] |
| Signup rate | [%] | [Current data] | [H/M/L] |
| Activation rate | [%] | [Current data] | [H/M/L] |
| Monthly retention | [%] | [Cohort data] | [H/M/L] |
| ARPU | [$] | [Revenue/users] | [H/M/L] |
| Referral coefficient | [#] | [Current data] | [H/M/L] |
## Funnel Model (Monthly)
| Stage | Month 1 | Month 3 | Month 6 | Month 12 |
|-------|---------|---------|---------|----------|
| Traffic | [#] | [#] | [#] | [#] |
| Signups | [#] | [#] | [#] | [#] |
| Activated | [#] | [#] | [#] | [#] |
| Active (retained) | [#] | [#] | [#] | [#] |
| Revenue | [$] | [$] | [$] | [$] |
## Sensitivity Analysis
| Scenario | Key Change | Revenue Impact |
|----------|-----------|---------------|
| **Bull** | Activation +10pts | [+$X/mo] |
| **Base** | Current assumptions | [$X/mo] |
| **Bear** | Retention -5pts | [-$X/mo] |
## Key Leverage Points
1. **Highest impact:** [Which funnel stage has most room + easiest improvement]
2. **Cheapest test:** [What to test first]
3. **Biggest risk:** [Which assumption, if wrong, breaks the model]
Quality Rubric
| Dimension | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Assumptions | Guesses | Some data | All data-sourced with confidence |
| Projections | Single scenario | 3 scenarios | 3 scenarios + sensitivity |
| Leverage Points | Not identified | Listed | Quantified impact per lever |
| Usability | Narrative only | Table format | Spreadsheet-ready |
References
Related Skills
skills/analytics/funnel-analysis/SKILL.md— Data for the modelskills/growth/activation-optimization/SKILL.md— Improve activation leverskills/growth/retention-deep-dive/SKILL.md— Improve retention leverskills/analytics/saas-economics-efficiency-metrics/SKILL.md— Unit economics
External Frameworks
- Dave McClure, AARRR / Pirate Metrics
- Andrew Chen, Growth modeling
Skill type: Component Domain: Growth & Optimization