Purpose
Systematically identify and evaluate risks across four dimensions — technical, market, usability, and business — before committing significant resources. Creates a risk register with ownership, impact assessment, and mitigation plans.
Key Concepts
Four Risk Dimensions (Marty Cagan)
| Risk | Question | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Value | Will customers want it? | "Users might not care about this feature" |
| Usability | Can users figure it out? | "The workflow is too complex for non-technical users" |
| Feasibility | Can we build it? | "ML model accuracy might be insufficient" |
| Viability | Does it work for the business? | "Unit economics don't work at this price point" |
Risk Matrix
IMPACT
Low Med High
Low │ 1 │ 2 │ 3 │
PROB Med │ 2 │ 4 │ 6 │
High │ 3 │ 6 │ 9 │
Application
Step 1: Brainstorm Risks
For each dimension, list potential risks:
### Value Risks
- [Risk 1: description + "What if..." scenario]
- [Risk 2]
### Usability Risks
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]
### Feasibility Risks
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]
### Viability Risks
- [Risk 1]
- [Risk 2]
Step 2: Evaluate and Prioritize
| # | Risk | Dimension | Probability | Impact | Score | Owner |
|---|------|-----------|------------|--------|-------|-------|
| 1 | [Description] | [V/U/F/B] | [H/M/L] | [H/M/L] | [1-9] | [Name] |
| 2 | [Description] | [V/U/F/B] | [H/M/L] | [H/M/L] | [1-9] | [Name] |
Step 3: Mitigation Plans (Top Risks)
For each risk scoring ≥6:
## Risk: [Name]
**Mitigation strategy:** [How to reduce probability or impact]
**Contingency plan:** [What to do if it happens anyway]
**Leading indicator:** [How we'll know early if this risk is materializing]
**Decision point:** [When we'll re-evaluate this risk]
Quality Rubric
| Dimension | 0 | 1 | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage | 1 risk dimension | 2-3 dimensions | All 4 (value, usability, feasibility, viability) |
| Specificity | "Something might go wrong" | Named risks | Risks + probability + impact |
| Mitigation | None | "We'll watch it" | Specific actions + owners + indicators |
| Honesty | All low probability | Mix | Unflinching, includes uncomfortable truths |
| Actionability | List only | Risk register | Register + decision points + contingencies |
Common Pitfalls
Pitfall 1: Risk Assessment as Checkbox Exercise
Fix: If your risk assessment has zero high-probability items, you're being dishonest. Every initiative has real risks.
Pitfall 2: Identifying Risks But No Mitigation
Fix: A risk without a mitigation plan is just a worry. Every high-scored risk needs an owner and a plan.
References
Related Skills
skills/planning/epic-hypothesis/SKILL.md— Hypotheses have embedded risk assumptionsskills/planning/dependency-map/SKILL.md— Dependencies create feasibility risksskills/planning/decision-log/SKILL.md— Risk decisions should be logged
External Frameworks
- Marty Cagan, Inspired — Four risk dimensions
- PMBOK Risk Management — Risk register format
Skill type: Component Domain: Planning & Prioritization