nirholas Tokenomics Evaluation
When to use this skill
Use when the user asks about:
- Evaluating a token's economic model
- Understanding token supply and emission schedules
- Assessing whether tokenomics support long-term value
- Comparing tokenomics across competing projects
- Identifying tokenomics red flags before investing
Evaluation Framework
1. Supply Structure
Map the complete supply picture:
- Max supply: Is there a hard cap or infinite supply?
- Total supply: All tokens created to date
- Circulating supply: Tokens currently in the market
- Supply ratio: Circulating / Total — low ratio means significant future dilution
- Emission schedule: Plot supply over 1, 2, 5 years
- Inflation rate: Annual percentage increase in circulating supply
- Burn mechanisms: Any deflationary counters to emissions?
2. Distribution Analysis
Assess how tokens are allocated:
| Category | Percentage | Vesting | Concern Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team | X% | Y months cliff + Z vest | Normal: 15-20% |
| Investors (seed/private) | X% | Y months cliff + Z vest | Normal: 15-25% |
| Community/Ecosystem | X% | Ongoing distribution | Normal: 30-50% |
| Treasury | X% | Governance-controlled | Normal: 10-20% |
| Public sale | X% | Usually unlocked | Normal: 5-15% |
Red flags:
- Team + investors > 50% of total supply
- Short vesting (< 12 months cliff)
- Large immediate unlock events approaching
- Single wallet holding > 10% of circulating supply (non-exchange)
3. Vesting and Unlock Schedule
Create a timeline of major unlock events:
- Past unlocks: How has the market reacted to previous unlocks?
- Upcoming unlocks: Next 3, 6, 12 months — amounts and recipients
- Cliff events: Large one-time unlocks vs gradual linear vesting
- Sell pressure estimation: Assume 20-50% of unlocked investor tokens get sold within 30 days
- Critical dates: Flag any unlock representing > 5% of circulating supply
4. Token Utility Assessment
Evaluate what the token actually does:
- Governance: Does holding grant meaningful voting power?
- Fee payment: Is the token required for protocol usage? Or optional?
- Staking: What incentive exists to stake? Staking rate?
- Collateral: Can it be used as collateral in DeFi?
- Access/membership: Does it unlock features or tiers?
- Utility depth score: How many genuine use cases generate organic demand?
5. Value Accrual Analysis
Determine how protocol success translates to token value:
- Revenue to holders: Fee-sharing, buyback-and-burn, or ve-model?
- Revenue data: Actual protocol revenue (30d, 90d, annualized)
- P/E or P/S ratio: Market cap / annualized revenue — compare to peers
- Token sink strength: How much net buying pressure does the mechanism create?
- Reflexivity risk: Does the token's value depend on its own price? (circular incentives)
6. Comparative Tokenomics
Compare against category peers:
| Metric | This Token | Peer A | Peer B |
|---|---|---|---|
| FDV / Market Cap ratio | |||
| Annual inflation | |||
| Staking yield | |||
| Revenue / FDV | |||
| Team allocation | |||
| Community allocation |
7. Tokenomics Scoring
Rate each dimension on a 1-5 scale:
- Supply design: Predictable, capped, with healthy emission curve
- Distribution fairness: Wide distribution, reasonable team allocation
- Utility strength: Multiple genuine use cases driving demand
- Value accrual: Clear path from protocol revenue to token value
- Vesting structure: Long cliffs, gradual unlock, aligned incentives
8. Output Format
- Token: Name, ticker, chain
- Tokenomics grade: A / B / C / D / F
- Key strength: Single best aspect of the tokenomics
- Key risk: Single biggest tokenomics concern
- Upcoming catalysts: Unlock events or tokenomics changes in next 90 days
- Inflation outlook: Current and projected annual inflation
- Value accrual: Strong / Moderate / Weak / None
- Verdict: Tokenomics support investment / Neutral / Tokenomics are a headwind