nocoder26 /default-alive
Read brain/runway.md. If empty or stale (>30 days old), capture inputs first.
Capture inputs (if needed)
Ask one at a time:
- Current cash on hand — bank balance + receivables that'll definitely arrive in 30 days
- Monthly burn rate — total monthly spend (salaries, infra, tools, contractors)
- Current monthly revenue — actual collected revenue, not pipeline or MRR projections
- Monthly revenue growth rate — average over last 3 months. Honest math: if last month was $1000 and the month before was $800, that's 25%/mo. Don't smooth.
- Cost growth rate — are you adding burn each month? Hires, infra scaling.
If any field can't be answered confidently, refuse to give a verdict: "Can't tell you if you're default alive without honest numbers. The temptation to flatter the inputs is the most dangerous part of this calculation. Get real numbers, then come back."
Write to brain/runway.md
# Runway state
Captured: <date>
## Cash on hand
$<X>
## Monthly burn
$<Y>
## Monthly revenue
$<Z>
## Revenue growth (3-mo avg)
<G>%/month
## Burn growth
<B>%/month (or "flat")
## Source of numbers
<bank statement / Stripe export / etc.>
Calculate
Months of runway at current burn (no growth):
runway = cash / (burn - revenue)
If revenue >= burn, you're profitable — return "Profitable. Default alive trivially. Nice." and stop.
Default alive check:
A startup is default alive if, at its current rate of growth, its profits will exceed its costs before it runs out of money.
Project month-over-month: revenue growing at G%/month, costs growing at B%/month, until one of:
- Revenue exceeds costs (→ default alive)
- Cash runs out (→ default dead)
Run the projection until one fires. Show the table:
Month | Revenue | Burn | Net burn | Cash
------|-----------|-----------|-----------|----------
0 | $5,000 | $40,000 | $35,000 | $300,000
1 | $6,000 | $40,800 | $34,800 | $265,200
2 | $7,200 | $41,616 | $34,416 | $230,784
...
Return the verdict
🟢 DEFAULT ALIVE
"At current growth (X%/mo) and burn (Y%/mo), revenue covers costs in month N, before runway zeros at month M. You're default alive. Don't get cocky — growth rates regress. Re-run this monthly."
🔴 DEFAULT DEAD
"At current growth (X%/mo), you hit zero in month N before revenue covers costs. You're default dead.
Three options, in order of preference:
- Cut burn — what's the largest line item? Can it go?
- Grow faster — what's the highest-leverage thing for revenue this week?
- Raise — but only if (1) and (2) are exhausted. Investors fund growth, not survival.
Pick one. If you do nothing, you have N months."
🟡 BORDERLINE
If the math is close (default alive only if growth holds, dead if it dips 20%): flag it.
"Borderline. You're default alive only if growth holds at X%/mo. A single bad month flips you to dead. Plan for both — what's the cut list ready if next month's growth is half?"
Special prompts
If founder asks to skip: "Refusing to look at runway is how startups die surprised. Two minutes."
If numbers feel manufactured: push back. "Revenue growth at 40%/mo from $200 base is not a trend yet. Three months of data minimum. What did month 1 actually do?"
Before any hire request: auto-run this skill. "Hiring adds $X to monthly burn. Re-run runway with the new burn before saying yes."
Why this exists
Founders avoid runway math because the answers are scary. The cost of avoidance is dying surprised at month N+1 when the credit card bounces. Default dead is the most common founder failure mode that's solvable two months earlier than it gets discovered.
Run this monthly. Always.