Noumenon-ai Risk Calculator
Output Format
POSITION RISK REPORT
--------------------------------------------------
Instrument: [ticker or asset]
Side: [LONG or SHORT]
Account: $[account]
Risk model: [Fixed % / Kelly / Half-Kelly / ATR]
Risk %: [risk%]
Dollar risk: $[dollar risk]
Entry: $[entry]
Stop: $[stop]
Stop distance: $[stop distance] ([stop %])
Position size: [units]
Position value: $[position value]
Open portfolio risk: $[existing open risk]
Post-trade risk: $[existing + new risk] ([% of account])
MATH
Dollar Risk = [account] x [risk%] = [dollar risk]
Stop Distance = abs([entry] - [stop]) = [stop distance]
Position Size = floor([dollar risk] / [stop distance]) = [units]
Position Value = [units] x [entry] = [position value]
Post-Trade Risk = [existing open risk] + [dollar risk] = [post-trade risk]
R TARGETS
1R target: $[price] -> [PnL]
2R target: $[price] -> [PnL]
3R target: $[price] -> [PnL]
VOLATILITY MODEL
ATR: [atr or n/a]
ATR multiple: [multiplier or n/a]
ATR stop distance: $[atr x multiplier or n/a]
ATR position size: [units or n/a]
KELLY MODEL
Win rate W: [value or n/a]
Reward/Risk R: [value or n/a]
Kelly %: [W - ((1 - W) / R)]
Half-Kelly %: [Kelly / 2]
Execution note: [Use Half-Kelly / No positive edge]
LEVERAGE
Gross leverage: [position value / account]x
Requested leverage: [value or 1.00x]
Initial margin used: $[position value / leverage]
Maintenance margin: [maintenance margin % or n/a]
Margin call est.: $[price or n/a]
FLAGS
Flag Status Trigger
OVERSIZED [Y/N] [reason]
HIGH RISK [Y/N] [reason]
STOP TOO TIGHT [Y/N] [reason]
STOP TOO WIDE [Y/N] [reason]
CONCENTRATION RISK [Y/N] [reason]
STOP SOLVER
Given units: [units or n/a]
Risk per unit: $[dollar risk / units or n/a]
Max long stop: $[entry - risk per unit or n/a]
Max short stop: $[entry + risk per unit or n/a]
VERDICT
[SAFE / ADJUST / REJECT]
Reason: [single clear sentence]
Core Formulas
FIXED % RISK
Dollar Risk = Account x Risk%
Stop Distance = abs(Entry - Stop)
Position Size = floor(Dollar Risk / Stop Distance)
Position Value = Position Size x Entry
R TARGETS
Long 1R target = Entry + Stop Distance
Long 2R target = Entry + (2 x Stop Distance)
Long 3R target = Entry + (3 x Stop Distance)
Short 1R target = Entry - Stop Distance
Short 2R target = Entry - (2 x Stop Distance)
Short 3R target = Entry - (3 x Stop Distance)
KELLY CRITERION
Kelly % = W - ((1 - W) / R)
Where:
W = win rate as decimal
R = average win / average loss
Half-Kelly = Kelly % / 2
ATR VOLATILITY SIZING
ATR Stop Distance = ATR x Stop Multiplier
ATR Position Size = floor(Dollar Risk / ATR Stop Distance)
STOP SOLVER
Risk Per Unit = Dollar Risk / Units
Long Max Stop = Entry - Risk Per Unit
Short Max Stop = Entry + Risk Per Unit
LEVERAGE + MARGIN
Gross Leverage = Position Value / Account
Initial Margin = Position Value / Leverage
Adverse Move % = (1 / Leverage) - Maintenance Margin%
Long Call Est. = Entry x (1 - Adverse Move %)
Short Call Est. = Entry x (1 + Adverse Move %)
PORTFOLIO RISK
Post-Trade Risk = Existing Open Risk + Dollar Risk
Post-Trade Risk % = Post-Trade Risk / Account
Risk Flags
RISK FLAGS
--------------------------------------------------
OVERSIZED Position Value > 25% of account
HIGH RISK Risk per trade > 2% of account
STOP TOO TIGHT Stop distance < max(0.50% of entry, 0.50 x ATR if ATR exists)
STOP TOO WIDE Stop distance > min(15.00% of entry, 3.00 x ATR if ATR exists)
CONCENTRATION RISK Single position > 30% of account
OR post-trade open portfolio risk > 6%
RULES
- Always show the full math block. Never give only the final share count.
- If the stop equals the entry, reject the trade sizing because stop distance is zero.
- Use fixed percentage risk sizing by default unless the user explicitly provides Kelly inputs or ATR inputs.
- When Kelly inputs are present, show both Kelly and Half-Kelly; prefer Half-Kelly for execution unless the user explicitly asks for full Kelly.
- If Kelly is zero or negative, say there is no positive edge and do not force a size from Kelly.
- When ATR is present, compute ATR sizing alongside fixed percentage sizing and call out the difference.
- If the user gives account, entry, risk, and units but no stop, solve the maximum stop from
Risk Per Unit = Dollar Risk / Units. - If leverage is mentioned, calculate gross leverage, initial margin used, and margin call estimate only when leverage and maintenance margin are available; if maintenance margin is missing, state that the estimate requires it.
- Flag
HIGH RISKabove 2% account risk even if the math works. - Flag
OVERSIZEDandCONCENTRATION RISKseparately; a trade can be one, both, or neither. - Use
SAFEonly when no flags are triggered and post-trade portfolio risk stays at or below 6% of account. - If existing open risk is provided, show the post-trade portfolio risk math explicitly in the
MATHblock and verdict. - Round displayed currency to 2 decimals and position size down to whole units unless the asset supports fractional sizing.
EXAMPLE TRIGGER PHRASES
- "how many shares can I buy with a $25k account and 1% risk?"
- "size this trade: entry 84.50 stop 81.90 account 12000"
- "what's my risk if I buy 200 shares at 42 with a stop at 39?"
- "position sizing for a BTC long with 3x leverage"
- "calculate my stop if I only want to risk $150"
- "show ATR sizing for this setup"
- "how much margin will this use and where is the margin call?"
Response Procedure
1. Parse account, side, entry, stop, units, and risk%.
2. Compute fixed-risk size first.
3. If stop is missing but units are present, solve the max stop.
4. Add ATR model if ATR data exists.
5. Add Kelly and Half-Kelly if win-rate data exists.
6. Evaluate all five risk flags.
7. Output verdict: SAFE, ADJUST, or REJECT.
This skill is part of the NOUMENON Trading Skills Pack — gumroad.com/noumenon-ai